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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-1-18 22:35 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 65.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 65.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.5S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.3S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.6S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.6S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 32.4S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 44.3S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 64.5E.
18JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.
//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 181500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING
- NR 017//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 20.8S 65.0E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 435 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
- CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE MAJORITY OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
- BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL
- CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WRAPPING INTO THE TIGHTLY
- WOUND CENTER WHILE THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE REMAINS LARGELY CLOUD
- FREE DUE TO EXCESSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AROUND THE NORTHERN
- QUADRANT FROM THE WEST. ALOFT, ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS
- PERSISTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH A DISTINCT POLEWARD
- CHANNEL, ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSITIES AT THE SURFACE NEAR 50 KTS.
- THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOW MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE DUE TO MODERATE
- VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 20-25 KTS, LARGE SWATHS OF PRESENT DRY
- AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRAL VORTEX, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
- LINGERING BETWEEN 26-27 C. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH
- HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBSERVABLE LLCC ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY.
- THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
- ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
- DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 68 KTS AT 180924Z
- CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 180900Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 71 KTS AT 180800Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 39 KTS AT 180924Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 42 KTS AT 180930Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
- UNFAVORABLE
- VWS: 20-25 KTS
- SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
- TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ALONG THE
- NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH.
- DURING THIS TIME, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR
- WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY, ALLOWING TC 14S TO BEGIN THE EXPECTED
- TERMINAL POLEWARD TRACK. NEAR TAU 48, TC DUDZAI WILL BEGIN
- PROGRESSING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTWARD
- EXTENT OF THE STR NOW LOCATED TO THE EAST. FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 96,
- TC 14S WILL BEGIN ITS TERMINAL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS SPEED OF
- APPROACH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
- AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH A
- LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
- ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW, ALLOWING FOR THE TRANSITION
- TO FULL EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY TAU 96. REGARDING
- INTENSITY, ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, DECREASED VERTICAL WIND
- SHEAR TO LESS THAN 20 KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
- BETWEEN 26-27 C WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSITIES UNTIL TAU 72.
- FOLLOWING TAU 72 AND THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, TC 14S IS
- FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 40 KTS BY THE COMPLETION OF
- EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (TAU 96).
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
- (AI) TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ALIGN VERY CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE
- ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY OUTLIER THAT REMAINS IS
- NAVGEM, WHICH TAKES A WIDER TURN AROUND THE STR AXIS BETWEEN TAU 48
- AND TAU 72. HOWEVER, ALL JTWC CONSENSUS TRACKERS RE-ALIGN BETWEEN
- TAU 72 AND TAU 96, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
- FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72. ALTHOUGH THE CROSS-TRACK ENVELOPE REMAINS
- TIGHTLY GROUPED INTO TAU 96, THE SPEED OF APPROACH THROUGH
- EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGES
- SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES,
- LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BETWEEN TAU 72
- AND TAU 96. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE JTWC GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES
- TO ILLUSTRATE A NARROW ENVELOPE OF INTENSITIES BETWEEN 45 KTS AND
- 55 KTS INTO TAU 72. FOLLOWING TAU 72, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
- FORECASTED BETWEEN THE MAJORITY OF JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS, LENDING
- HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO TAU 72, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO
- THE EXPECTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-1-18 11:32
发表于 2026-1-18 14:30
