斐济西南热带低压07F(17U/20U/18P) - 微波风眼构建，惜FMS没有命名

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z --- NEAR 21.4S 173.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 173.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 24.5S 173.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 26.6S 172.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 27.7S 170.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 173.7E. 28JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND
292100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 282100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.4S 173.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 327 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 23 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 18P WITH A RADIALLY EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
    
19. WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
    
20. IT'S SOUTHWEST. 18P HAS INTENSIFIED, DESPITE THE NORTHWESTERLY
    
21. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINING HIGH (30+ KTS) AND THE DRY
    
22. ENVIRONMENT LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE NORTHWEST, SUPPORTED BY WARM
    
23. (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND ROBUST DIVERGENCE
    
24. ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, 18P HAS A DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY --
    
25. PARTICULARLY ON THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION -- SUPPLYING
    
26. SUPPORTING EVIDENCE THAT 18P IS RESISTING THE VWS AND DRY AIR TO
    
27. SOME DEGREE; HOWEVER, A 281818Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
    
28. THE VORTEX IS TILTED TO THE SOUTH WITH HEIGHT. THE INITIAL POSITION
    
29. IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 281818Z MICROWAVE
    
30. IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
31. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMMS AUTOMATED
    
32. INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
    
37. SOUTHWEST
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
41.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
42.    PHFO: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 281900Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 281900Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-MINT: 49 KTS AT 281817Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 65 KTS AT 281900Z
    
47. 
    
48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
49.    VWS: 30+ KTS
    
50.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
52. 
    
53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
54.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
57. 
    
58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
59. 
    
60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE GENERALLY
    
64. SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE GENTLY CURVING TO THE
    
65. SOUTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE STEERING STR. 18P IS FORECAST
    
66. TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 12 THROUGH THE END OF THE
    
67. FORECAST AT TAU 36 AS IT SHALLOWS OUT AND COMES UNDER THE STEERING
    
68. INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF A
    
69. RIDGE POSITIONED IN THE TASMAN SEA. REGARDING INTENSITY, 18P IS
    
70. FORECASTED TO CURRENTLY BE AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KTS, AND IS
    
71. EXPECTED TO BEGIN A TERMINAL WEAKENING TREND IMMINENTLY. AS 18P TRACKS
    
72. FARTHER SOUTH, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS:
    
73. 35-40 KTS OF VWS, MARGINAL (26 C) SSTS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND THE
    
74. LOSS OF THE ROBUST OUTFLOW SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, ALL BY
    
75. TAU 24. CONSEQUENTLY, 18P WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN FROM TAU 12 ONWARD,
    
76. AND BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) WHILE IT MOVES POLEWARD.
    
77. ULTIMATELY, DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BEFORE TC 18P
    
78. COMPLETES STT, NO LATER THAN TAU 36.
    
79. 
    
80. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
81. AGREEMENT IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, WITH
    
82. ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. AS
    
83. A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL HIGH
    
84. CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
    
85. 18P HAS PEAKED AND WILL BEGIN TERMINALLY WEAKENING IMMINENTLY. ALL
    
86. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES DISSIPATION BY TAU 36 AT THE LATEST,
    
87. SUPPORTING THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
88. 
    
89. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
90.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
91.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
92. NNNN

复制代码

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析升至T3.5

TPPS11 PGTW 282048
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (SW OF FIJI)
B. 28/2030Z
C. 22.03S
D. 173.43E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 40NM IN
SHEARED DENSE OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT
YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   28/1818Z  21.63S  173.50E  SSMS
   HUYNH

pocketbox

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 282308 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTER [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 22.4S
173.4E AT 282100UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 9 VIS/IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING SOUTH AT
20 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. TD07F LIES IN AN AREA WITH
LOW TO MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND HIGH SHEAR. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELSIUS. TD07F IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH AND MOVE OUT OF
RSMC NADI'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BY EARLY TOMORROW.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS VERY LOW.

*********************************************************************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

ygsj24

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 004   
WTPS31 PGTW 290300   
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z --- NEAR 23.4S 173.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 173.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 25.9S 172.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 27.5S 171.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 173.5E.
29JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
413 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 12900Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z,
291500Z AND 292100Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 290300                                               
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN)
   
4. WARNING NR 004//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 23.4S 173.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 413 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 18 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE
    
18. DEEP CONVECTION, WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
    
19. BEGINNING TO PEEK OUT FROM UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO).
    
20. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BEGINNING TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE, WITH 18P
    
21. ENTERING INTO A REGION OF HIGHER SHEAR AS IT TRACKS FARTHER
    
22. SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
23. BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INTIIAL
    
24. INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
25. THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY AIDS
    
26. LISTED BELOW.
    
27. 
    
28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.                               
    
29. 
    
30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED T0
    
31. THE SOUTHWEST.
    
32. 
    
33. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
34.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
35.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
36.    CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 290120Z       
    
37.    CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 290120Z
    
38.    CIMSS DPRINT: 57 KTS AT 290120Z
    
39. 
    
40. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
41.    VWS: 30+ KTS
    
42.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
43.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD                                       
    
44. 
    
45. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:                                                       
    
46.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM                                               
    
47.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
48.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
49. 
    
50. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
51. 
    
52. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.                                
    
53. 
    
54. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
    
55. SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE CURVING TO THE
    
56. SOUTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
    
57. STEERING RIDGE. 18P WILL THEN MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
    
58. THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT TAU 24. REGARDING
    
59. INTENSITY, 18P WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS INTO A HOSTILE
    
60. ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHER SHEAR, COOLER SEA SURFACE
    
61. TEMPERATURES, AND DRIER AIR. THE DRY AIR AND SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE
    
62. VORTEX TO SHALLOW AND COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY
    
63. FLOW ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF A RIDGE POSITIONED IN THE TASMAN SEA.
    
64. IT WILL ALSO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) UNDER THESE
    
65. CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, FULL DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE 18P CAN
    
66. COMPLETE STT, NO LATER THAN TAU 24.
    
67. 
    
68. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
69. AGREEMENT IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24,
    
70. SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
    
71. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 18P HAS BEGUN TERMINALLY
    
72. WEAKENING, SUPPORTING THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH HIGH
    
73. CONFIDENCE.
    
74. 
    
75. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:                                                       
    
76.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
77.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
    
78. NNNN

复制代码

Meow

新西兰MetService展望今天形成热带气旋机率为高。

Forecast to 12:00 30 Jan 2026 UTC (1am Sat, 31 Jan NZT)

A tropical depression 07F lies about 500km southwest of Fiji, moving south-southwest. The risk of TD07F developing into a tropical cyclone is assessed as HIGH today, falling to LOW tomorrow.

Outlook to 12:00 02 Feb 2026 UTC (1am Tue, 3 Feb NZT)

The risk of tropical depression 07F becoming a tropical cyclone is VERY LOW from Saturday onwards.

Issued: 12:48pm Thu, 29 Jan
The next bulletin will be issued by 1pm Fri, 30 Jan

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析降至T3.0/3.5，SSD分析维持T3.5/3.5

TPPS11 PGTW 290006
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (SW OF FIJI)
B. 28/2340Z
C. 23.14S
D. 173.48E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T3.0/3.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
5NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 3.0.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   28/1818Z  21.85S  173.75E  SSMS
   28/1833Z  21.80S  173.70E  SMOS
   28/2029Z  22.28S  173.62E  GPMI
   HUYNH

TXPS29 KNES 290029
TCSWSP
A.  18P (NONAME)
B.  28/2330Z
C.  23.4S
D.  173.7E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T3.5/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...LLCC LOCATED 1/3 INTO COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF
3.5. THE MET IS 3.0. THE PT IS 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO
PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析降至T2.5/3.5

TPPS11 PGTW 290339
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (SW OF FIJI)
B. 29/0230Z
C. 24.04S
D. 173.56E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T2.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
30NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. BROKE
CONSTRAINTS FOR RAPID WEAKENING.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T2.5/3.5

TPPS11 PGTW 290543
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (SW OF FIJI)
B. 29/0530Z
C. 24.51S
D. 173.24E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T2.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
2.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析降至T2.5/3.5

TXPS29 KNES 290551
TCSWSP
A.  18P (NONAME)
B.  29/0530Z
C.  25.2S
D.  172.6E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...LLCC LOCATED <1.25 DEGREES FROM THE EDGE OF SHEARED DENSE
OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS 1.5. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT
IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE IN FT TO 1.0 OVER 6 HOURS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    29/0220Z 24.5S 173.0E AMSR2
...MONAGHAN

Meow

Low L1 996hPa near 24S 174E, moving southwest 5kt. Within 300 nautical miles of L1 in southern semicircle: Clockwise 25kt, areas of poor visibility in rain, areas of heavy swell.