西澳北部近海三级强热带气旋“米切尔”(21U/20S.Mitchell) - 横穿澳大利亚北部，西行出海发展 - BoM:75KT JTWC:85KT

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-2-6 18:56

JTWC 09Z分析降至T2.5/3.0

TPXS11 PGTW 060913
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (W OF BROOME)
B. 06/0830Z
C. 18.50S
D. 120.23E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/3.0 STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
THOMPSON

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-6 20:55

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-6 21:40 编辑

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1331 UTC 06/02/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.5S
Longitude: 120.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (254 deg)
Speed of Movement: 11 knots (20 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC)       : degrees    :    nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  06/1800: 18.8S 119.2E:    035 (060):  040  (075):  990
+12:  07/0000: 19.1S 118.5E:    035 (065):  045  (085):  986
+18:  07/0600: 19.5S 117.7E:    035 (070):  055  (100):  979
+24:  07/1200: 19.9S 117.0E:    040 (075):  060  (110):  975
+36:  08/0000: 20.7S 115.7E:    055 (105):  060  (110):  974
+48:  08/1200: 21.9S 114.7E:    075 (135):  055  (100):  977
+60:  09/0000: 23.4S 114.3E:    090 (165):  040  (075):  988
+72:  09/1200: 24.9S 114.9E:    105 (200):  030  (055):  994
+96:  10/1200: 26.5S 119.2E:    140 (255):  025  (045):  997
+120: 11/1200:          :             :          :
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is located over waters to the northeast of Port
Hedland and is tracking west-southwest in a generally favourable environment
for further development.

Deep convection has been persistent over the past several hours. Broome Doppler
radar indicates improved organisation, with a better-defined structure evident
during the past three hours. A tightly closed low-level circulation was also
identified in 1028Z WSFM MWI microwave imagery. There is good confidence in the
analysed position. Intensity is estimated at 35 kn, supported by Doppler radar
velocity data.

Dvorak Analysis supports a DT of 3.0, based on a curved band pattern with
approximately 0.7 wrap. An estimated MET would be around 3.0, based on a strong
structure over land and subsequent rapid consolidation as it moved over water.
PT agrees with 3.0. FT/CI = 3.0. Objective guidance (1-minute mean) remains
higher than the subjective estimate, with ADT 45 kn, AiDT 38 kn, DPRINT 42 kn,
and DMINT 34 kn. SATCON is not available.

Environmental conditions are favourable, including low to moderate vertical
wind shear and high ocean heat content supportive of steady intensification.
With the approach of the upper-level trough and improving upper-level outflow,
there is potential for a period of rapid intensification from Saturday into
Sunday. On the current forecast, Mitchell is expected to reach Category 2
intensity late Saturday with the increasing possibility that it could reach
Category 3 intensity overnight Saturday or on Sunday prior to landfall.

Mitchell is being steered west-southwest under the influence of a mid-level
ridge to the south. Numerical guidance shows very good consistency in the
forecast track over the next 24 hours, keeping the system moving roughly
parallel to the Pilbara coast, while remaining sufficiently offshore and over
warm waters. An upper-level trough moving across southern Western Australia
during Saturday is expected to weaken the ridge, resulting in Mitchell
gradually turning towards the southwest on Sunday.

There is uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough  s
influence on both the movement and intensity of Mitchell on Sunday, leading to
uncertainty in the timing and location of landfall. At present, Mitchell is
forecast to cross the west Pilbara coast late Sunday, though a delayed
southwestward turn could result in landfall occurring slightly further south on
Sunday night. Following landfall, the system is expected to move inland and
weaken from Monday onward.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1930 UTC.

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 8:49 pm WST on Friday 6 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) has developed to the north of the Pilbara coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
De Grey to Mardie, including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Watch Zone
Onslow to Coral Bay, including Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara to include Pannawonica.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 18.5 degrees South 120.1 degrees East, estimated to be 255 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and 425 kilometres northeast of Karratha.

Movement: west southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) has formed to the northeast of Port Hedland and is expected to intensify further. It is forecast to reach category 2 cyclone by late Saturday,

Mitchell is moving in a general west southwest direction, and is expected to remain off the coast initially. It may begin to turn towards the southwest from Saturday night, which would take it closer to the coast. On its current forecast track, Mitchell is expected to make landfall over the western Pilbara coast around late on Sunday.

There is a slight possibility that Mitchell may further intensify to a category 3 cyclone overnight on Saturday, if it moves more slowly than forecast and remains over the warm offshore waters.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 km/h are possible for coastal parts of the Pilbara around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham from late Saturday, extending to Mardie on Saturday night. Destructive winds may extend further west along the coast towards Onslow and Exmouth during Sunday as the core of Mtichell approaches the coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible for coastal parts between De Grey and Mardie during Saturday, extending west to Onslow and Exmouth and through inland parts of the western Pilbara, including Pannawonica during Sunday.

Widespread moderate to locally HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible with this risk persisting through the weekend for the Pilbara coast.

Tides between Wickham and Exmouth are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Saturday and Sunday and LARGE WAVES may produce FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am AWST Saturday 07 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm February 6	1	18.5S	120.1E	45
+6hr	2 am February 7	1	18.8S	119.2E	60
+12hr	8 am February 7	1	19.1S	118.5E	65
+18hr	2 pm February 7	2	19.5S	117.7E	70
+24hr	8 pm February 7	2	19.9S	117.0E	75
+36hr	8 am February 8	2	20.7S	115.7E	105
+48hr	8 pm February 8	2	21.9S	114.7E	135
+60hr	8 am February 9	1	23.4S	114.3E	165
+72hr	8 pm February 9	tropical low	24.9S	114.9E	200

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-2-6 21:09

JTWC 12Z分析维持T2.5/3.0

TPXS11 PGTW 061239
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (W OF BROOME)
B. 06/1130Z
C. 18.48S
D. 119.90E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/3.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE
MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BALMER

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-6 22:10

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-6 23:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 119.8E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.1S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.1S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.0S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.1S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 25.3S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 119.4E.
06FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.5S 119.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 128 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 20S WITH BURSTING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM, LOW-LEVEL CURVED CLOUD LINES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED QUICKLY
WRAPPING BENEATH SUPPORTIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE LLCC. ALOFT, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED WITH
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD CHANNELS, INDICATED BY VISIBLE CIRRIFORM
STRIATIONS ON ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS REMAINED LARGELY FAVORABLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
WARNING SIX HOURS AGO, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30
C, MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF LESS THAN 5 KTS, AND ROBUST
OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AND ANIMATED COMPOSITE
RADAR CENTERED IN BROOME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OBJECTIVE CIMSS INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED
BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST, OVER EASTERN
AUSTRALIA
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 061130Z
CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 061130Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 34 KTS AT 061029Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 42 KTS AT 061200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECASTED TRACK REMAINS OVER
WATER FOR AN ADDITIONAL 12 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION
TO 80 KTS BY TAU 36.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 20S IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A
DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE EAST OVER AUSTRALIAS QUEENSLAND
TERRITORY. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, AN EXTENSION OF THE STR IN
SOUTHERN WESTERN AUSTRALIA IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN RETREATING
EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE TRACK FOR TC 20S TO BECOME SOUTHWARD INTO
TAU 72. IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING TAU 48, TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 20 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EXMOUTH GULF. BETWEEN TAU 48
AND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER LAND INTO SOUTHWEST WESTERN AUSTRALIA. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC
20S IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 55 KTS OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS THROUGH THE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL ELEMENTS.
FOLLOWING TAU 12, THE CYCLONE IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY
INTENSIFYING TOWARD 80 KTS BY TAU 36 WITH MINIMAL VWS OF LESS THAN 15
KTS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28-29 C, AND SUPPORTIVE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. FOLLOWING TAU 36, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN
DECREASING TO 26-27 C AS THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONES WIND
FIELD EXPERIENCES TOPOGRAPHICAL FRICTION AGAINST AUSTRALIAS WEST
COAST, WEAKENING SURFACE INTENSITIES TO 70 KTS BY TAU 48.
ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR BEGINS WRAPPING AROUND THE CYCLONES NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE INTO LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48, RESTRICTING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION BY LANDFALL. FOLLOWING LANDFALL IN EXMOUTH GULF, THE
TERMINAL DECAY PHASE IS EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT INTERACTION WITH
WESTERN AUSTRALIAS RUGGED TERRAIN IN TAU 72.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AND ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE (AI) SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT INTO LANDFALL
BY TAU 48, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 55 NM. FOLLOWING TAU
48, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BEGINS TO WIDEN DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
WITH DISSIPATION OVER LAND, HOWEVER, ALL JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS
SOLUTIONS ILLUSTRATE THE EXPECTED ROUNDING OF THE STR AXIS BY TAU
72 WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 99 NM INTO THE TERMINAL WEAKENING
PHASE. THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND ALIGNED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. REGARDING
INTENSITY, ALL JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS CHARACTERIZE AN
INTENSIFICATION PHASE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WITH COAMPS-TC
MAINTAINING LOWER INTENSITIES AT 55 KTS AND THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SOLUTION INCREASING TO 80 KTS BY THE SAME TIMEFRAME. FOLLOWING TAU
36, ALL CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS LEVEL OUT AND REMAIN STEADY UNTIL TAU
48. FOLLOWING TAU 48, ALL JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS BEGIN
ILLUSTRATING A WEAKENING PHASE IN VARYING DEGREES DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHICAL INTERACTION. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE
TO THE QUICK INTENSIFICATION PHASE INTO TAU 36 AND THE EXPECTED
WEAKENING PHASE AFTER LANDFALL AT TAU 48.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

复制代码

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-2-6 23:12

JTWC 15Z分析升回T3.0/3.0

TPXS11 PGTW 061506
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (W OF BROOME)
B. 06/1430Z
C. 18.85S
D. 119.43E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED 10NM FROM
LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. INTENSITY
ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/1028Z 18.47S 120.13E MMWI
BALMER

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-6 23:45

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-6 23:55 编辑

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 11:42 pm WST on Friday 6 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is intensifying to the north of the Pilbara coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
De Grey to Mardie, including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Watch Zone
Onslow to Coral Bay, including Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara to include Pannawonica.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 11:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 65 kilometres of 18.5 degrees South 119.8 degrees East, estimated to be 240 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and 400 kilometres northeast of Karratha.

Movement: west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) lies to the northeast of Port Hedland and is expected to intensify further. It is forecast to reach category 2 cyclone by late Saturday.

Mitchell is moving in a general west southwest direction, and is expected to remain off the coast initially. It may begin to turn towards the southwest from Saturday night, which would take it closer to the coast. On its current forecast track, Mitchell is expected to make landfall over the western Pilbara coast around late Sunday.

There is a slight possibility that Mitchell may further intensify to a category 3 cyclone overnight on Saturday, if it moves slower and remains over the warm offshore waters longer.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 km/h may occur over the coastal parts of the Pilbara around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham from late Saturday, extending to Mardie on Saturday night. Destructive winds may extend further west along the coast towards Onslow and Exmouth during Sunday as the destructive core of Mitchell approaches the coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible along the coastal parts between De Grey and Mardie during Saturday, extending west to Onslow and Exmouth and through inland parts of the western Pilbara, including Pannawonica during Sunday.

Widespread moderate to locally HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible with this risk persisting through the weekend for the Pilbara coast.

Tides between Wickham and Exmouth are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Saturday and Sunday and LARGE WAVES may produce FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Saturday 07 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 pm February 6	1	18.5S	119.8E	65
+6hr	5 am February 7	1	18.7S	119.0E	70
+12hr	11 am February 7	2	19.1S	118.2E	65
+18hr	5 pm February 7	2	19.5S	117.4E	65
+24hr	11 pm February 7	2	20.0S	116.7E	70
+36hr	11 am February 8	2	21.0S	115.4E	100
+48hr	11 pm February 8	2	22.3S	114.5E	125
+60hr	11 am February 9	tropical low	23.8S	114.4E	155
+72hr	11 pm February 9	tropical low	25.2S	115.3E	190

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-2-7 02:32

JTWC 18Z分析维持T3.0/3.0

TPXS11 PGTW 061818
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL)
B. 06/1730Z
C. 19.06S
D. 118.74E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/18HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .75 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT.
INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

Ragasa · 发表于 2026-2-7 03:30

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 2:44 am WST on Saturday 7 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is intensifying, and hazardous conditions are
expected from later today for the Pilbara coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: De Grey to Mardie, including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Watch zone: Onslow to Coral Bay, including Exmouth, and extending inland
through the western Pilbara to include Pannawonica.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 18.7 degrees South 119.2 degrees East,
estimated to be 190 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and 335
kilometres northeast of Karratha.
Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) lies to the north of Port Hedland and is
expected to intensify further. It is forecast to reach category 2 cyclone this
afternoon.

Mitchell is moving to the west  southwest, and is expected to remain off the
coast initially. It will most likely begin a gradual turn towards the
southwest, and the coast, from tonight, most likely making landfall over the
western Pilbara coast on Sunday in the late afternoon or early evening.

If Mitchell moves slower and remains offshore for longer there is a slight
possibility that it intensifies to a category 3 cyclone during Saturday night.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 km/h may occur over the coastal parts of the
Pilbara around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham from this evening, extending to
Mardie tonight. Destructive winds may extend further west along the coast
towards Onslow and Exmouth during Sunday as the destructive core of Mitchell
approaches the coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible along the coastal parts
between De Grey and Mardie during Saturday, extending west to Onslow and
Exmouth and through inland parts of the western Pilbara, including Pannawonica
during Sunday.

Widespread moderate to locally HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING
is possible from later today with this risk persisting through the weekend for
the Pilbara coast.

Tides between Wickham and Exmouth are likely to rise above the normal high tide
mark on Saturday and Sunday and LARGE WAVES may produce FLOODING of low-lying
coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Saturday 07 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am February 7	1	18.7S	119.2E	55
+6hr	8 am February 7	1	18.9S	118.5E	65
+12hr	2 pm February 7	2	19.5S	117.8E	70
+18hr	8 pm February 7	2	19.9S	117.2E	70
+24hr	2 am February 8	2	20.2S	116.4E	80
+36hr	2 pm February 8	2	21.4S	115.1E	105
+48hr	2 am February 9	1	22.7S	114.3E	130
+60hr	2 pm February 9	tropical low	24.4S	114.1E	165
+72hr	2 am February 10	tropical low	25.8S	115.4E	205

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1927 UTC 06/02/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 18.7S
Longitude: 119.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (255 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 65 nm (120 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/18HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 07/0000: 18.9S 118.5E: 035 (065): 040 (075): 989
+12: 07/0600: 19.5S 117.8E: 035 (070): 050 (095): 982
+18: 07/1200: 19.9S 117.2E: 040 (070): 055 (100): 977
+24: 07/1800: 20.2S 116.4E: 045 (080): 060 (110): 973
+36: 08/0600: 21.4S 115.1E: 055 (105): 055 (100): 977
+48: 08/1800: 22.7S 114.3E: 070 (130): 040 (075): 987
+60: 09/0600: 24.4S 114.1E: 090 (165): 030 (055): 994
+72: 09/1800: 25.8S 115.4E: 110 (205): 030 (055): 993
+96: 10/1800: : : :
+120: 11/1800: : : :
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is located north of Port Hedland and is
tracking west-southwest in a generally favourable environment for further
development.
Deep convection has fluctuated over the past few hours. The centre of Mitchell
is becoming visible on the edge of the Port Hedland Radar and has been used to
analyse the position with good confidence. Earlier ASCAT at 1256 UTC captured
the western and southern portion of Mitchell with gales observed at least to
the southwest.
Dvorak Analysis yields DT of 3.0, based on a curved band pattern with a 3-hour
averaged wrap of 0.6. An estimated MET would be 3.0, based on a D trend,
(estimated as Mitchell has not yet been over water for 24 hours and Dvorak
doesn't account for a well-structured circulation moving from land to water).
Estimated PAT would be 2.5. FT/CI = 3.0. Objective guidance (1-minute mean) at
1800 UTC; ADT 51 kn, AiDT 39 kn, DPRINT 45 kn, and DMINT(at 1705UTC) 43 kn.
Intensity is estimated to have changed little in the last few hours and is
analysed at 35kn, consistent with earlier ASCAT and only slightly below the
collection of objective aids.
Environmental conditions are generally favourable, though some low to moderate
easterly wind shear (CIMSS estimate at 1200 UTC 14 knots) may limit short term
intensification. Wind shear is forecast to somewhat ease and along with high
ocean heat content and the approach of an upper-level trough near standard
intensification is forecast. With the approach of the upper trough and
improving upper-level outflow, there is potential for a period of rapid
intensification from later this evening and into Sunday. There remains a
moderate risk that Mitchell develops above the current forecast and could reach
Category 3 intensity overnight tonight or on Sunday prior to landfall.
Mitchell is being steered west-southwest under the influence of a mid-level
ridge to the southeast. Numerical guidance shows very good consistency in the
forecast track over the next 48 hours. An upper-level trough moving across
southern Western Australia during today is expected to weaken the ridge,
resulting in Mitchell gradually turning towards the south and then south east
during Sunday and Monday .
There is uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough s
influence on both the movement and intensity of Mitchell on Sunday, leading to
uncertainty in the timing and location of landfall. At present, Mitchell is
forecast to cross the west Pilbara coast during Sunday afternoon, though a
delayed southwestward turn could result in landfall occurring slightly further
south on Sunday night. Following landfall, the system is expected to move
inland and weaken.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/0130 UTC.

复制代码

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-2-7 04:25

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-2-7 06:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 119.0E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.7S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.6S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.7S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.1S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 26.2S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 118.6E.
06FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
87 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z,
071500Z AND 072100Z.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.9S 119.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 87 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WITH IMPROVING CURVED DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 061720Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALED THAT THE SYSTEM NOW HAS A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
THE 89 GHZ VERSION OF THE SAME PASS SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING SURROUNDING THE ASSESSED CENTER FROM ALL SIDES, INDICATING
A DEVELOPING STORM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED LARGELY ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY DUE TO THE LATE
RECEIPT OF THE AMSR2 IMAGE. A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE AMSR2 IMAGE WOULD RESULT IN THE CENTER BEING
SHIFTED ABOUT 15 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK
FIXES AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 20S IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 061800Z
CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 061800Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 46 KTS AT 061720Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 45 KTS AT 061800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD,
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, THROUGH TAU 36.
LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR THE EXMOUTH GULF AROUND TAU 36.
THE PRECISE LANDFALL LOCATION COULD VARY IN RESPONSE TO SMALL
CHANGES TO THE TRAJECTORY, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A DIRECT
LANDFALL TO THE NORTH WEST CAPE. AS IT STANDS, LANDFALL IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE EXMOUTH GULF. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD, ANCHORING OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.
THIS WILL CAUSE 20S TO BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. REGARDING
INTENSITY, 20S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS TO A PEAK OF 80 KTS IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. ONCE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT MORE WITH THE COAST
OF AUSTRALIA, 20S WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. AFTER TAU 48, A
MORE RAPID WEAKENING TREND WILL ENSUE DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST. WEAKENING BELOW TC STRENGTH IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER INLAND,
EAST OF SHARK BAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM
MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE. DISCOUNTING
NAVGEM, THERE IS A MERE 20 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36.
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD THEN INCREASES SLIGHTLY TO 65 NM AT TAU 72. THE
TIGHT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH
MODELS SHOWING INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12-24. PEAK INTENSITIES
RANGE FROM 65 KTS (COAMPS-TC) TO 80 KTS (HWRF). THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSER TO HWRF AND HAFS-A DUE TO THE EXPECTED
HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH LANDFALL. MODELS THEN AGREE ON
WEAKENING FROM TAU 36 ONWARD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

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红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-2-7 04:44

红豆棒冰冰发表于 2026-2-7 02:32
JTWC 18Z分析维持T3.0/3.0

JTWC稍早前重新分析

TPXS11 PGTW 061959
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL)
B. 06/1731Z
C. 18.65S
D. 119.27E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/18HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .75 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT.
INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND. RE-EVALUATED POSITION BASED ON 06/1720Z AMSR2 PASS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

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西澳北部近海三级强热带气旋“米切尔”(21U/20S.Mitchell) - 横穿澳大利亚北部，西行出海发展 - BoM:75KT JTWC:85KT

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