|
|
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-9 23:15 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 53.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 53.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.0S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.0S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.4S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.1S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.6S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.5S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.7S 36.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 53.4E. 09FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091200Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 091200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) FOR FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 091500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING
- NR 004//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 18.0S 53.8E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 172 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (GEZANI) EXHIBITS CONTINUED RAPID
- CYCLOGENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION AS IT TRACKS ON A WESTERLY VECTOR
- TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
- AND ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICT A HIGHLY COMPACT CORE
- STRUCTURE, WITH VERTICAL HOT TOWERS (VHTS) WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), YET TO ACHIEVE THE TEMPORAL
- PERSISTENCE REQUISITE FOR ESTABLISHING A DEFINITIVE EYE FEATURE. EIR
- ANALYSIS HAS INTERMITTENTLY SUGGESTED NASCENT OCULAR FORMATION OVER
- THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS; HOWEVER, PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL EAST-
- NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS HITHERTO INHIBITED
- STRUCTURAL CONSOLIDATION. A 091117Z GMI AND 091016Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE
- PASS REVEALED A MODERATE VORTEX TILT, THOUGH VERTICAL ALIGNMENT HAS
- IMPROVED SINCE THE PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC PERIOD. THE AMSR2 COLOR ENHANCED
- 36GHZ IMAGE ALSO REVEALED A CYAN RING AROUND A NASCENT MICROWAVE EYE
- FEATURE, SUGGESTING A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI)
- IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE IMAGES NOTED
- ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
- BIASED HIGHER THEN THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
- NOTED BELOW TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL INTENSITY UNDERESTIMATION
- INHERENT TO SMALL-CORE, COMPACT SYSTEMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
- HIGHLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (AND DECREASING) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
- WARM SSTS, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
- (STR) COMPLEX EXTENDING ZONALLY FROM EAST OF SOUTH AFRICA TO
- SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 55 KTS AT 091230Z
- CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 091200Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 49 KTS AT 091200Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 46 KTS AT 091117Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 51 KTS AT 091130Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
- VWS: 5-10 KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY SHEAR;
- WEDGE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 21S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK
- ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR POSITIONED TOO THE
- SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
- OF MADAGASCAR NEAR THOAMASINA IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. POST-
- LANDFALL, TC 21S WILL EXECUTE A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTWARD RECURVATURE AS
- THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST AXIS. THE LLCC
- IS PROJECTED TO FULLY DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX UPON
- INTERACTION WITH THE OROGRAPHIC BARRIER OF THE CENTRAL MADAGASCAR
- MASSIF; THE SURFACE CENTER WILL LIKELY BE ATTENUATED WHILE MID-LEVEL
- VORTICITY TRANSITS RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARD, REACHING THE WESTERN
- LITTORAL BY TAU 48. UPON EMERGENCE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE
- VORTEX WILL RE-ESTABLISH SURFACE COUPLING AND CONTINUE A
- SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL TAU 96. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
- SHARPLY POLEWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE INDUCED BY THE PASSAGE
- OF A DEEP-LAYER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE
- ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE IS PRIMED FOR RI, CONTINGENT UPON VORTEX
- AXISYMMETRIZATION. WITH DIMINISHING SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
- OUTFLOW, RI COMMENCEMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
- PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST AT 95 KTS AT TAU 24, THOUGH NEAR-SHORE
- INTENSIFICATION MAY YIELD A 100-KT MAXIMUM AT LANDFALL. TC 21S WILL
- RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE WEST COAST OF
- MADAGASCAR BUT STRENGTHEN EXPEDITIOUSLY OVER OPEN WATER AS THE VORTEX
- BUILDS BACK DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND REORGANIZES. A SECONDARY
- INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
- PERIOD, LEVERAGING FAVORABLE SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
- WHILE NOT EXPLICITY FORECAST AT THE CURRENT TIME, THE POSSIBILITY OF
- A SECOND ROUND OF RI AFTER TAU 72 IS A DISTINCT PROBABILITY.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND ARTIFICIAL
- INTELLIGENCE (AI) MODEL PACKAGE EXHIBITS ROBUST SPATIAL CONCURRENCE,
- VALIDATING THE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE
- AND POLEWARD ACCELERATION AFTER 96. THE GFS-GEFS REPRESENT THE
- NORTHERN AND WESTERN CROSS-TRACK OUTLIERS, WHILE THE ECMWF-ECENS
- DEFINE THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
- CROSS-TRACK SPREAD EXPANDS TO 250NM BY TAU 120. THE GFS AND GEFS
- DEPICT THE MOST GRADUAL TURN AND MARK THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
- BOUNDARY OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE THE ECMWF AND ECENS DEPICT
- THE SHARPEST AND FASTEST TURN AND OUTLINE THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
- EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD GRADUALLY INCREASES TO
- 250NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE
- GUIDANCE IS EQUALLY SPREAD BETWEEN THE TWO OUTLIERS. THE JTWC
- FORECAST IS PLACED JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN,
- CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE AI MEMBERS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
- THROUGH TAU 72, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
- IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SHAPE OF THE TREND, WITH A
- MODEST AMOUNT OF SPREAD. SHIPS AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) CONSTITUTE THE
- CONSERVATIVE LOWER BOUND (70 KTS), WHEREAS HAFS-A, HWRF, AND COAMPS-
- TC (GFS) PROJECT PRE-LANDFALL PEAKS OF 85-90 KTS. STATISTICAL RI AIDS
- (RICN, RIDE, RIPA) HAVE BEEN TRIGGERED, SUPPORTING PEAKS OF 100-105
- KTS. BOTH THE COAMPS-TC AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE RI PROBABILITIES EXCEED 40
- PERCENT (COAMPS-TC IS 90 PERCENT). THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RI
- GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24, THEN HAFS-A THROUGH TAU 48. DURING THE
- SECOND INTENSIFICATION PERIOD, ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SAVE FOR THE
- SHIPS, DEPICTS A STEEP INTENSIFICATION TREND (THE HWRF IN FACT
- REACHES 115 KTS BY TAU 120). THE JTWC FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER EDGE
- OF THE ENVELOPE AND ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF
- DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THROUGHOUT THE
- FORECAST PERIOD.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
|
本帖子中包含更多资源
您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册
×
|
楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-2-9 16:45
