关岛东南2604号热带风暴“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 西行趋向关岛，数值看好强度

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GFS 18Z有所东调，预报将在133E附近转向北上，巅峰约934百帕

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JMA 00Z分析DT1 MET1.5 PT1 FT1 CI1，命名机会仍然不大

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        4
featureDirectionOfMotion:        273 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        4.63 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        4
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        2
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        3
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        1
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
finalTNumberType:        1

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JTWC 00Z分析升至T2.0，有望升格

TPPN10 PGTW 090013
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SE OF GUAM)
B. 08/2330Z
C. 8.20N
D. 151.82E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

xiaoqianWX

嗯...

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SSD 00Z分析维持T2.0

TXPQ22 KNES 090015
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B.  08/2330Z
C.  8.8N
D.  152.0E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...4.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT=2.0. FT
BASED ON MET DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION AND BANDING NOT CLR-CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    08/2001Z 8.9N 152.5E SSMIS
...KONON

Asdfghjtyuinh

明早9时前应该可以命名吧

hei

xiaoqianWX 发表于 2026-4-9 08:28
嗯...

看來吹襲關島的機會很大

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NRL显示已升格04W

04W FOUR 260409 0000 8.7N 152.1E WPAC 25 1000

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ECMWF 18Z系集

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今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描