小笠原群岛以东2502号热带风暴“圣帕”(02W.Sepat) - 北上趋向日本关东近海

红豆棒冰冰

一件有趣的事：NMC在过去两天内一直都没有给予“圣帕”评级（也就是说一直都不看好其发展成台？）

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析升回T2.5/2.5

TPPN10 PGTW 231451
A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT)
B. 23/1430Z
C. 27.58N
D. 142.52E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/1213Z  27.05N  143.03E  GPMI
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2025-6-23 20:37
SSD 12Z分析降至T2.0/2.5

SSD稍早前修改12Z分析，升至T3.0

TXPQ24 KNES 231511
TCSWNP
CCA
A.  02W (SEPAT)
B.  23/1130Z
C.  27.1N
D.  143.0E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T3.0/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR INTENSITY BASED ON 1213Z GMP DATA THAT
SHOWED PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND A BANDING FEATURE. CENTER IS ON THE
EDGE OF A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.0 BASED ON THE
SHEAR PATTERN. THE PT AGREES. THE MET IS 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    23/0847Z 26.4N 143.3E SSMIS
...TURK

Enceladus

ASCAT B UHR 11Z
35-40KT

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今天晚间ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2025-6-23 22:55
JTWC 15Z分析升回T2.5/2.5

JTWC稍早前修改15Z分析

TPPN10 PGTW 231501 COR
A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT)
B. 23/1432Z
C. 27.58N
D. 142.52E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
CORRECTED FOR COMMENTS AND EXPLANANTION OF CORRECTING.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/1213Z  27.05N  143.03E  GPMI
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 12Z继续预报逐渐北上，靠近本州岛

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 18Z分析DT1.5 MET2 PT2 FT2 CI2

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        4
featureDirectionOfMotion:        316 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        8.23 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        3
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        1
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        3
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        0.5
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        1
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
finalTNumberType:        2

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析降至T2.5/3.0，JTWC分析降至T2.0/2.5

TXPQ24 KNES 231802
TCSWNP
A.  02W (SEPAT)
B.  23/1730Z
C.  28.2N
D.  141.9E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY/GMI/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...4/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE MET BECAUSE BANDING WAS NOT CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    23/1213Z 27.1N 143.0E GMI
    23/1555Z 27.8N 142.1E AMSR2
...TURK

TPPN10 PGTW 231830
A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT)
B. 23/1750Z
C. 28.24N
D. 142.40E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD
OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS
3.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

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ECMWF 12Z系集