迪戈加西亚东南强热带气旋第5号“格兰特”(03U/09S.Grant) - 逐渐西行 - MFR:110KT JTWC:120KT

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 270654
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/5/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 89.3 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/27 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2025/12/28 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2025/12/28 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2025/12/29 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/29 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/12/30 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/12/31 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND GRANT HAS
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN MORE SYMMETRICALLY AROUND THE CENTER. ON THE
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES, THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE ARE SOMETIMES
VISIBLE. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES (WSFM 2353Z, F16 0017Z, METOP01
0250Z, AND AWS 0351Z) SEEM TO CONFIRM THE FORMATION OF AN EYE IN THE
89GHZ CHANNEL. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST BOM ANALYSES AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES (3.5/4.0), THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
ANALYSED AT 55KT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, DRIVEN BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. UNTIL WEDNESDAY, SPREAD REMAINS VERY LOW AMONG THE
MAIN MODELS. BEYOND THAT, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
GRANT, AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING
FLOW, MAKE THE TRACK FORECAST MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH GRANT WAS
SUFFERING FROM SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR
AN INTENSIFICATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
GRANT'S DEVELOPMENT UNTIL TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, IT SHOULD REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN, LEADING TO A WEAKENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘涛  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 12 月 27 日 18 时
“格兰特”向偏西方向移动

时  间: 27日14时（北京时）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “格兰特”，GRANT

中心位置:  南纬11.9度，东经89.3度

强度等级:  二级热带气旋

最大风力: 10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 986百帕

参考位置: 距离科科斯群岛偏西方向约825公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“格兰特”强度变化不大

预报结论: “格兰特”将以每小时13公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度维持



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年12月27日14时00分）

桑美和伊欧凯

pocketbox 发表于 2025-12-27 14:35
WTIO30 FMEE 270654
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING  ...

4天过后移动速度会有减慢

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 271224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/5/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 88.2 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/28 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/28 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 0

36H: 2025/12/29 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2025/12/29 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/30 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/12/30 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/12/31 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

120H: 2026/01/01 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND GRANT HAS ONCE
AGAIN LOST SOME SYMMETRY, WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP NORTH OF THE
CENTER IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY MICROWAVE IMAGES
(NOTABLY THE 1020Z F18 SSMIS). THE EYE MENTIONED THIS MORNING IS NO
LONGER VISIBLE IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THIS SEEMS TO INDICATE THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE EAST- NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR, ANALYSED AT 20KT BY
THE CIMSS. IN VIEW OF THIS EVOLUTION AND IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW
RELIABLE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55KT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, DRIVEN BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. UNTIL WEDNESDAY, SPREAD REMAINS VERY LOW AMONG THE
MAIN MODELS. BEYOND THAT, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
GRANT, AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING
FLOW, MAKE THE TRACK FORECAST MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH GRANT WAS
SUFFERING FROM SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR
AN INTENSIFICATION. CONDITIONS (OCEANIC POTENTIAL, SHEAR AND
DIVERGENCE) SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR GRANT'S DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, IT SHOULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT COULD EVEN REACH THE INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THIS SHORT-TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE
DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN,
LEADING TO A WEAKENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

pocketbox

WTXS32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 021   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z --- NEAR 12.0S 88.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 88.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 12.4S 86.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 12.9S 84.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 13.4S 82.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 13.8S 80.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 14.5S 75.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 15.3S 72.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 15.6S 69.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 87.8E. 27DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 980 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271200Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 271200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 271500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR
   
4. 021//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 12.0S 88.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 980 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP
    
18. CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER OF A VERY COMPACT
    
19. CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
20. BASED ON A DEFINED CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 271022Z SSMIS PASS.
    
21. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
22. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
    
23. AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. TC 06S HAS MAINTAINED
    
24. INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEVELOPMENT CONSTRAINED BY
    
25. PERSISTENT, MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS NOW
    
26. BEGINNING TO DECREASE.
    
27. 
    
28. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND PERSISTENCE
    
29. 
    
30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH
    
31. 
    
32. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
33.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
34.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
35.    FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
36.    FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
37.    CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 270756Z
    
38.    CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 271215Z
    
39.    CIMSS AIDT: 56 KTS AT 271245Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-MINT: 57 KTS AT 271022Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 56 KTS AT 271215Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
44.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
45.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECASTED FORWARD TRACK SPEED IS
    
56. SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE 96 TO 120 HOUR PERIOD THAN REFLECTED IN THE
    
57. PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
    
58. FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
    
61. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, STEERED THROUGH
    
62. TAU 72 BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND THEREAFTER BY A
    
63. SECOND RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. SLOW TO
    
64. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM, SUPPORTED
    
65. BY DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
    
66. THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH
    
67. OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEST WEAKENING IS
    
68. ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER AS EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AGAIN
    
69. INCREASES, THE OUTFLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE RESTRICTED, AND THE
    
70. SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENTRAIN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.
    
71. 
    
72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS
    
73. IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO NOTABLE OUTLIERS. GIVEN TIGHT MODEL
    
74. AGREEMENT AND THE STRAIGHTFORWARD SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN, THE
    
75. JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
    
76. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONSENSUS INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
    
77. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO OF SLOW TO STEADY
    
78. NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING LATE IN THE
    
79. FORECAST PERIOD. HAFS-A REMAINS A NOTEWORTHY OUTLIER, DEPICTING
    
80. RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THIS
    
81. SCENARIO CANNOT BE FULLY DISCOUNTED GIVEN VULNERABILITY OF THE
    
82. COMPACT SYSTEM TO SHIFTING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WHICH ARE
    
83. EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IMMINENTLY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST
    
84. FAVORS THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE, CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC
    
85. FORECAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS FORECAST THROUGH TAU
    
86. 48.   
    
87. 
    
88. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
89.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
90.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
    
91.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
92.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
93. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 271853
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 87.5 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 40 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/28 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0

24H: 2025/12/28 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 0

36H: 2025/12/29 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2025/12/29 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/30 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2025/12/30 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/12/31 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/01 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE GRANT HAS
BECOME SYMMETRICAL. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE WELL SPREAD AROUND THE
CENTER, GIVING IT THE PATTERN OF A EMBEDDED CENTER. THIS INDICATES A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN DEEP SHEAR, ANALYSED AT BETWEEN 15 AND 20KT BY
THE CIMSS. SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES MAXIMUM WINDS AT 60KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE MORE IN THE RANGE OF 50KT. THE ASCAT PASS AT
1606 UTC MEASURED WINDS OF 55-60KT, POSSIBLY REACHING 65KT UNDER
CONVECTION. FINALLY, THE VALUE OF 60KT IS SELECTED FOR THE MAXIMUM
AVERAGE WIND INTENSITY, AND GRANT REMAINS AT THE STAGE OF A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, DRIVEN BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. UNTIL WEDNESDAY, SPREAD REMAINS VERY LOW AMONG THE
MAIN MODELS. BEYOND THAT, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
GRANT, AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING
FLOW, MAKE THE TRACK FORECAST MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH GRANT WAS
SUFFERING FROM BEGAN TO DECREASE, ALLOWING FOR AN INTENSIFICATION.
CONDITIONS (OCEANIC POTENTIAL, SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE) SHOULD BE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR GRANT'S DEVELOPMENT UNTIL TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT, IT SHOULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IT COULD EVEN REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THIS
SHORT-TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN, LEADING TO A WEAKENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 280105
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/5/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 86.8 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 40 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/28 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 0

24H: 2025/12/29 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2025/12/29 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2025/12/30 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/30 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/12/31 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/01 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/02 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE GRANT HAS
EVOLVED LITTLE. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE WELL SPREAD AROUND THE
CENTER, GIVING IT THE PATTERN OF AN EMBEDDED CENTER. THIS INDICATES A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN DEEP SHEAR, ANALYSED AT 15KT BY THE CIMSS.
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES MAXIMUM WINDS AT 60KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES ARE MORE IN THE RANGE OF 50KT. DUE TO THE DECREASE IN SHEAR,
THE VALUE OF 60KT IS USED FOR THE MAXIMUM AVERAGE WIND SPEED, AND
GRANT REMAINS AT THE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, DRIVEN BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. UNTIL WEDNESDAY, SPREAD REMAINS VERY LOW AMONG THE
MAIN MODELS. BEYOND THAT, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
GRANT, AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING
FLOW, MAKE THE TRACK FORECAST MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH GRANT WAS
SUFFERING FROM BEGAN TO DECREASE, ALLOWING FOR AN INTENSIFICATION.
CONDITIONS (OCEANIC POTENTIAL, SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE) SHOULD BE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR GRANT'S DEVELOPMENT UNTIL TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT, IT SHOULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IT COULD EVEN REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THIS
SHORT-TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN, LEADING TO A WEAKENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：钟晖子、刘涛  签发：许映龙  2025 年 12 月 28 日 10 时
“格兰特”向偏西方向移动

时  间: 28日08时（北京时）

海  域: 东南印度洋

命  名: “格兰特”，GRANT

中心位置:  南纬12.1度，东经86.8度

强度等级:  强热带风暴

最大风力: 10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 986百帕

参考位置: 距离科科斯群岛偏西方向约1100公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“格兰特”强度变化不大

预报结论: “格兰特”将以每小时13公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年12月28日08时00分）

ygsj24

WTXS32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 022   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z --- NEAR 12.3S 86.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 86.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 12.8S 84.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 13.4S 82.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 13.8S 80.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 14.1S 78.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 14.7S 74.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 15.2S 71.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 15.1S 68.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 86.3E.
28DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 896
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280000Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 280300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR
   
4. 022//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 12.3S 86.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 896 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WITH A HIGHLY COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
    
19. (CDO) OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CLOUD TOPS
    
20. WITHIN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ARE NOW MEASURING COLDER THAN -90 C
    
21. IN SOME AREAS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
22. BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS
    
23. IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
    
24. ALL AGREEING ON T4.0. ADDITIONALLY, THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
    
25. RANGING FROM 59-72 KTS FURTHER SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    
26. ASSESSMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 09S IS IN A
    
27. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD
    
28. OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
    
29. WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM THE 1607Z METOP-C ASCAT
    
32. PASS WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK.
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
    
35. THE SOUTH
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
39.    DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
40.    FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
41.    FIMP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS SATCON: 59 KTS AT 272215Z
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 280015Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 68 KTS AT 280015Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 59 KTS AT 280015Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
49.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
60. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 09S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
63. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
    
64. SOUTH THROUGH TAU 48. NEAR TAU 48, A SECOND STR IS EXPECTED TO
    
65. BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 09S AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD, KEEPING THE
    
66. TRAJECTORY FIRMLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. NEAR TAU 96,
    
67. 09S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INTERACTING WITH RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM
    
68. EASTERN AFRICA OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR, CAUSING THE TRACK TO SHIFT
    
69. WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING
    
70. INTENSITY, 09S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS
    
71. AS EASTERLY SHEAR LESSENS AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW BECOMES ENHANCED BY
    
72. A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, SHEAR IS
    
73. EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND OUTFLOW DECREASE CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
    
74. BEGIN WEAKENING. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH
    
75. WILL FURTHER AID IN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
    
76. THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
77. 
    
78. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
    
79. AGREEMENT WITH NO NOTABLE OUTLIERS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
    
80. PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
81. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPLIT WITH GFS AND COAMPS-TC CALLING FOR A
    
82. STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 96 WHILE HAFS-A AND HWRF CALL FOR
    
83. INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE STEADY WEAKENING. HAFS-A
    
84. CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF
    
85. AROUND 110 KTS AT TAU 48. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
    
86. NEAR THE CONSENSUS, AND IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH
    
87. OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
88. 
    
89. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
90.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
91.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
    
92.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
93.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
94. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 280636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/5/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 85.5 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/28 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/29 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2025/12/29 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/12/30 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/30 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/12/31 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/02 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GRANT'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL AND AN EYE FEATURE HAS
BECOME APPARENT, PARTICULARLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS
CERTAINLY FAVORED BY DECREASING WIND SHEAR. THE GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE
IS ALSO REFLECTED BY A NICE CIRRUS OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE 0014Z SSMIS-F17 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE WITH THE EARLY
STAGES OF AN EYEWALL. A 2356Z SAR RCM-2 PASS MEASURED WINDS UP TO 83
KT (1-MIN), SUGGESTING THAT GRANT WAS ALREADY AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE AT 00UTC (THE 00UTC ANALYSIS IN THE BEST-TRACK WILL BE
CORRECTED AFTERHAND TO 65 KT 10-MIN). A 0312Z ASCAT-C PASS SEEMS TO
INDICATE WEAKER WINDS, BUT THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM PROBABLY
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT UNDERESTIMATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS BEEN RAISED TO 4.5, REFLECTING THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE CONFIGURATION IN VISIBLE IMAGES AND IMPROVEMENTS
IN STRUCTURE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 70 KT AT 06UTC, BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE 00Z ESTIMATED
INTENSITY AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE CONTINUED STRUCTURAL
IMPROVEMENT ON THE LATEST IMAGES.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
ITS SOUTH TO SOUTH-EAST. UNTIL WEDNESDAY, SPREAD REMAINS VERY LOW
AMONG THE MAIN MODELS. BEYOND THAT, THE PRESENCE OF A TROUGH
SOUTHWEST OF GRANT AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE LEVEL OF THE
STEERING FLOW MAKE THE TRACK FORECAST MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DECREASING NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD
ENABLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE) SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
GRANT'S DEVELOPMENT UNTIL TUESDAY. IN PARTICULAR, INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN PHASE WITH THE SYSTEM'S TRACKING OVER AN AREA OF VERY
WARM WATERS (SST NEAR 29C, HIGH TCHP VALUES) BY MONDAY, IN
COMBINATION WITH GRANT'S SMALL SIZE, SHOULD FAVOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION UP TO INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY MONDAY. THIS
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN THOUGH, DUE TO GRANT'S SMALL SIZE. IN THE
LONGER TERM, THE DEEP NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT
SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO DRY AIR DISRUPTIONS AND MAKING GRANT WEAKEN
BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=