迪戈加西亚东南强热带气旋第6号“杜扎伊”(14S.Dudzai) - MFR:110KT JTWC:125KT

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 181848
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/6/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 64.1 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 350 SW: 140 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 35.9 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 415 SW: 195 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 110 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=2.5 CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED WEAK WITHIN
DUDZAI'S CIRCULATION, WITH RELATIVELY WARM CLOUD TOPS, MAINLY PRESENT
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CENTRE REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE
TO THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER, LATEST MICROWAVE PASSES
(1327Z WSFM AND 1709Z GPM) SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
IN THE ABSENCE OF AVAILABLE ASCAT OR SAR DATA, THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 45KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST. DUDZAI HAS READJUSTED ITS
COURSE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. IT IS CURRENTLY PASSING CLOSEST TO RODRIGUES,
APPROXIMATELY 150 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT COULD THEN PASS
APPROXIMATELY 300 KM FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION. ON TUESDAY, IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THE RIDGE. OUR RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS,
AMONG WHICH THERE IS NOW LITTLE SPREAD.

REGARDING INTENSITY, THE SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE COMING
HOURS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION
OVER STILL RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD
THEREFORE BE REACHED BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER
WATERS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE LOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES FROM 4 TO 6M UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE UP TO MONDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS ON REUNION/MAURITIUS :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES DURING MONDAY TO TUESDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.=

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析降至T2.5/3.5

TPXS11 PGTW 182057
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 18/2030Z
C. 20.82S
D. 63.44E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/3.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
20NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS A 2.0. PT YIELDS A
2.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析维持T2.5/3.5

TPXS11 PGTW 182358
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 18/2330Z
C. 21.01S
D. 62.75E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/3.5/W1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .4 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：葛畅、刘涛  签发：王海平  2026 年 01 月 19 日 10 时
“杜扎伊”向偏西方向移动

时  间: 19日08时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬21.1度，东经62.9度

强度等级: 热带风暴

最大风力: 9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 992百帕

参考位置: 距离毛里求斯路易港东偏南方向约575公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“杜扎伊”最大风力由10级减弱为9级

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度略有增强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月19日08时00分）

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 190031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/6/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 62.9 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 32.8 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 380 SW: 150 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2026/01/22 00 UTC: 39.7 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 620 SE: 465 SW: 195 NW: 695
34 KT NE: 380 SE: 285 SW: 120 NW: 405
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=2.5 CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED WEAK WITHIN
DUDZAI'S CIRCULATION, WITH RELATIVELY WARM CLOUD TOPS, APART FROM A
FEW RARE BURSTS OF CONVECTION. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES,
PARTICULARLY THOSE BASED ON MICROWAVE DATA (DMINT AND SOUNDERS),
STILL SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 45KT. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
MAINTAINED AT THIS LEVEL PENDING NEW AND MORE RELIABLE DATA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST. DUDZAI HAS READJUSTED ITS
COURSE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. IT IS STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM RODRIGUES. IT
COULD THEN PASS APPROXIMATELY 300 KM FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION. ON
TUESDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE. OUR RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE
MAIN MODELS, AMONG WHICH THERE IS NOW LITTLE SPREAD.

REGARDING INTENSITY, THE SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ON DECREASING IN THE
COMING HOURS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
REINTENSIFICATION OVER STILL RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE COULD THEREFORE BE REACHED BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE
OVER COOLER WATERS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE
LOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH 4M WAVES UP TO MONDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE UP TO MONDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS ON REUNION/MAURITIUS :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES DURING MONDAY TO TUESDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 018   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 62.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 62.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 21.7S 60.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 23.0S 58.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 25.2S 57.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 28.4S 57.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 39.7S 65.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 62.2E.
19JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z AND 200300Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 190300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
   
4. 018//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.1S 62.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 315 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
    
13. MAURITIUS
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY REVEALS TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
19. (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NOW
    
20. NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED, WITH MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO
    
21. THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL PARAMETERS, WITH
    
22. WARM (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), STRONG POLEWARD
    
23. OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    
24. (VWS) AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH AND EAST.
    
25. A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IS PLACED IN THE INITIAL POSITION,
    
26. GIVEN THE CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE LLCC IN ANIMATED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
    
27. INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A CONSENSUS
    
28. OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
    
33. SOUTH
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
37.    FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 182125Z
    
39.    CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 182100Z
    
40.    CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 182000Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 34 KTS AT 182330Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
44.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
45.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
56. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS PROJECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
    
59. SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS, STEERED BY THE
    
60. DEEP-LAYER FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    
61. (STR) TO ITS SOUTH. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS
    
62. STR IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE THE STR ITSELF
    
63. RETROGRADES EASTWARD. BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
    
64. ROUND THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE, ADOPTING A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
    
65. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. DURING THAT STAGE TC 14S WILL
    
66. ACCELERATE MARKEDLY ON A SOUTHEASTWARD VECTOR AS IT UNDERGOES
    
67. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE PHASING OF THE CYCLONE WITH AN
    
68. AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDEBAROCLINIC TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH WILL EXPEDITE
    
69. THIS TRANSFORMATION, LEADING TO THE SYSTEM ACQUIRING FULLY
    
70. EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICSBY TAU 72. WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY, A
    
71. COMBINATION OF ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF VWS
    
72. TO BELOW 15 KTS OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, AND RESIDUAL WARM SSTS WILL
    
73. PERMIT A PERIOD OF STEADY INTENSITY, WHILE THE SYSTEM BECOMES
    
74. INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EVENTUALLY COMPLETES
    
75. ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
    
76. 
    
77. MODEL DISCUSSION: A HIGH DEGREE OF AGREEMENT PERSISTS BETWEEN THE
    
78. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS IN REGARD TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE
    
79. RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE ONLY
    
80. OUTLIER CURRENTLY IS NAVGEM WHICH REFLECTS A SLIGHTLY WIDER TURN ALONG
    
81. THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. JTWC
    
82. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND CLOSE TO THE
    
83. ENVELOPE CONSENSUS. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE GUIDANCE SPREAD REMAINS
    
84. TIGHTLY PACKED, WITH A NARROW SPAN OF SOLUTIONS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS
    
85. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, WITH HAFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL.
    
86. JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LAID WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY
    
87. BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
    
88. 
    
89. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
90.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
91.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
92. NNNN

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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T2.5/3.5

TPXS11 PGTW 190305
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 19/0230Z
C. 21.05S
D. 62.15E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/3.5/W1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

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WTIO30 FMEE 190657
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/6/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 61.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SW: 155 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 465 SW: 155 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 130 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/22 06 UTC: 44.3 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 140

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED WEAK IN THE
CIRCULATION OF DUDZAI BEFORE RESUMING NEAR THE CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHERN PART. THE 0502Z ASCAT PASS MEASURED MAXIMUM WINDS (10-MINUTE
AVERAGE) OF 45 TO 50 KT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, AFTER
DEBIASING. DUDZAI REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH
WIND SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 45 KT FOR THIS ANALYSIS TIME.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK. DUDZAI CONTINUES ITS TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 300 KM FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION
ISLAND TONIGHT. TOMORROW, IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING SOUTH THEN
SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TALWEG APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND THE RETREAT OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST. OUR RSMC
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS, AMONG WHICH THERE
IS LITTLE DISPERSION AT PRESENT.

REGARDING INTENSITY, THE DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE FAVOURABLE TO A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION
OVER WATERS THAT ARE STILL FAIRLY WARM. INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE DEPRESSION.

IMPACTS ON REUNION/MAURITIUS :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES DURING MONDAY TO TUESDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析升至T3.0/3.5

TPXS11 PGTW 190612
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 19/0530Z
C. 21.16S
D. 61.79E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO
PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   19/0150Z  21.05S  63.20E  SSMS
   LINDGREN

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：葛畅、刘涛  签发：王海平  2026 年 01 月 19 日 18 时
“杜扎伊”向偏西方向移动

时  间: 19日14时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬21.2度，东经61.8度

强度等级: 热带风暴

最大风力: 9级，24米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 990百帕

参考位置: 距离毛里求斯路易港东偏南方向约465公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“杜扎伊”最大风力由10级减弱为9级

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度略有增强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月19日14时00分）