斐济西南热带低压07F(17U/20U/18P) - 微波风眼构建，惜FMS没有命名

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290600Z --- NEAR 24.9S 173.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 173.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 26.8S 171.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 27.8S 170.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 172.7E.
29JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
415 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290600Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 290900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 005//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 24.9S 173.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 415 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW
    
13. CALEDONIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE (TC) 18P WITH A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
20. (LLCC) AND A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE STRONG
    
21. NORTHERLY SHEAR ACTING ON THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DISPLACE
    
22. CONVECTION FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A 290621Z WSFM 89 GHZ
    
23. MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO
    
24. THE ASSESSED CENTER WITH A DISTINCT WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN
    
25. PORTION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
    
26. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WSFM IMAGE AND ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL
    
27. INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
28. AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
29. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 18P IS NOW IN AN UNFAVORABLE
    
30. ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
    
31. WARMISH (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSET BY DRY
    
32. AIR ENTRAINMENT AND HIGH NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
    
37. THE EAST
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
41.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 290400Z
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 290600Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 290600Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 290624Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 40 KTS AT 290600Z
    
47. 
    
48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
49.    VWS: 30-35 KTS
    
50.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
52.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH
    
53. 
    
54. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
55.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
57.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
58. 
    
59. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
60. 
    
61. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
62. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
63. 
    
64. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 18P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
    
65. SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO
    
66. THE EAST JUTS UNDERNEATH THE VORTEX. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
    
67. EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
    
68. SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH. THESE TWO
    
69. FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. 18P IS
    
70. FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TC STRENGTH AROUND TAU 24 AS THE SHALLOW
    
71. VORTEX DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. 18P IS EXPECTED TO SIMULTANEOUSLY
    
72. BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT DISSIPATES, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
    
73. FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BEFORE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION CAN FULLY
    
74. COMPLETE.
    
75. 
    
76. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
77. AGREEMENT WITH AN 85 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. THE SHORT
    
78. JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
    
79. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
80. WITH ALL MODEL SHOWING WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JTWC
    
81. INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
    
82. CONFIDENCE.
    
83. 
    
84. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
85.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
86.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
87. NNNN

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Meow

恭喜FMS全程摆烂达标

GALE WARNING 043 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 290705 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 24.7S
173.5E AT 290600UTC. TD07F MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR.

WITHIN 040 TO 100 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM TD07F CENTRE IN THE SECTOR
FROM EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST, EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP
TO 45 KNOTS.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DEPRESSION.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 041.

pocketbox

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 290822 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTER [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 24.7S
173.5E AT 290600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 9 VIS/IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING SOUTH AT
15 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. TD07F LIES IN AN AREA WITH
LOW TO MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND HIGH SHEAR. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELSIUS. TD07F IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH AND MOVE OUT OF
RSMC NADI'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BY LATER TONIGHT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS VERY LOW.

*********************************************************************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析降至T2.0/3.0

TPPS11 PGTW 290906
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (SW OF FIJI)
B. 29/0830Z
C. 25.32S
D. 172.98E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES WITH
COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET
YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

桑美和伊欧凯

16P和18P均未被命名，有点遗憾

VistaBSOD

机构SL透了，55kt不命名

1822山竹

这小东西辐合还可以，就是看后续风场的整合情况，而且看图像高空流出不错

1822山竹

雨带怎么在这个位置，这就有点奇怪，不都是在西侧的吗？

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T2.0/3.0，SSD分析降至T2.0/3.0

TPPS11 PGTW 291152
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (SW OF FIJI)
B. 29/1130Z
C. 26.13S
D. 172.89E
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED MORE THAN 75NM OUTSIDE
OF COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET
YIELDS 2.0 AND PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   29/0621Z  23.38S  173.70E  MMWI
   BALMER

TXPS29 KNES 291207
TCSWSP
A.  18P (NONAME)
B.  29/1130Z
C.  27.1S
D.  172.0E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY SHEAR WITH A LLCC LOCATED LESS
THAN 1.25 DEG FROM DG. DT=1.5 MET=1.5 PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS
LIMITING CHANGE OVER 6 HOURS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...FISHER

pocketbox

WTPS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z --- NEAR 26.2S 172.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S 172.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 27.6S 171.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 28.4S 170.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 26.5S 172.2E.
29JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
428 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 291500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 006//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 26.2S 172.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 428 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 18P WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
19. CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS NOW VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. STRONG NORTHERLY
    
20. SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CONTINUE TO ACT ON THE VORTEX,
    
21. INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
22. PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CENTER BEING SOMEWHAT
    
23. OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS CLOUDS FLOWING OVER THE SYSTEM IN ANIMATED
    
24. EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
    
25. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE
    
26. INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED
    
27. TO THE EASTERLIES THAT MAKE UP THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
    
28. CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 18P REMAINS IN
    
29. AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    
30. ALOFT GREATLY OFFSET BY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, HIGH
    
31. (30-35 KTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MARGINAL (25-26 C)
    
32. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
    
37. THE EAST
    
38. 
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
42.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 291210Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 291140Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 291210Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 30-35 KTS
    
49.    SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
51.    OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH
    
52. 
    
53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
54.    INITIAL POSITION: LOW
    
55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
57. 
    
58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
59. 
    
60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
    
64. SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO
    
65. THE EAST JUTS UNDERNEATH THE VORTEX. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
    
66. EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
    
67. SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH. THESE TWO
    
68. FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. 18P IS
    
69. FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TC STRENGTH NEAR TAU 12 AS THE SHALLOW
    
70. VORTEX DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. 18P IS ANALYZED TO BE
    
71. SIMULTANEOUSLY GOING THROUGH SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
    
72. DISSIPATES. 18P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AT
    
73. AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT IT WEAKENS BELOW TC STRENGTH.  
    
74. 
    
75. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
76. AGREEMENT WITH NO NOTABLE OUTLIERS. THE SHORT JTWC TRACK FORECAST
    
77. IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
78. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODEL SHOWING
    
79. WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
    
80. ALSO PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
81. 
    
82. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
83.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
84.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
85. NNNN

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