西澳北部近海三级强热带气旋“米切尔”(21U/20S.Mitchell) - 横穿澳大利亚北部，西行出海发展 - BoM:75KT JTWC:85KT

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-2-7 06:00

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 5:49 am WST on Saturday 7 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is intensifying, with hazardous conditions
expected for the Pilbara coast later today.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: De Grey to Ningaloo, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow,
and Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara to include
Pannawonica.

Watch zone: Coral Bay to Carnarvon, including adjacent inland areas.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 5:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 18.9 degrees South 118.8 degrees East,
estimated to be 160 kilometres north of Port Hedland and 290 kilometres
northeast of Karratha.
Movement: west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) lies to the north of Port Hedland and is
expected to intensify further. It is forecast to reach category 2 cyclone later
today.

Mitchell is moving to the west southwest and is expected to remain off the
coast initially. It will most likely begin a gradual turn towards the
southwest, and the Pilbara coast, from tonight, most likely making landfall
over the western Pilbara coast during Sunday afternoon.

If Mitchell moves slower and remains offshore for longer, there is a slight
possibility that it intensifies to a category 3 cyclone during Saturday night.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 km/h may occur over the coastal parts of the
Pilbara around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham from this evening, extending to
Mardie tonight. Destructive winds may extend further west along the coast
towards Onslow and Exmouth during Sunday as the destructive core of Mitchell
approaches the coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible along the coastal parts
between De Grey and Mardie during Saturday, extending west to Onslow and
Exmouth and through inland parts of the western Pilbara, including Pannawonica,
from early Sunday morning.

Widespread moderate to locally HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING
is possible from later today with this risk persisting through the weekend for
the Pilbara coast.

Tides between Wickham and Exmouth are likely to rise above the normal high tide
mark on Saturday and Sunday and LARGE WAVES may produce FLOODING of low-lying
coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Saturday 07 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 am February 7	1	18.9S	118.8E	55
+6hr	11 am February 7	2	19.2S	118.2E	80
+12hr	5 pm February 7	2	19.7S	117.5E	95
+18hr	11 pm February 7	2	20.1S	116.9E	80
+24hr	5 am February 8	2	20.6S	116.3E	70
+36hr	5 pm February 8	2	21.8S	115.1E	100
+48hr	5 am February 9	1	23.1S	114.5E	130
+60hr	5 pm February 9	tropical low	24.9S	114.7E	160
+72hr	5 am February 10	tropical low	26.4S	116.1E	210

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-2-7 06:00

JTWC 21Z分析升至T3.5

TPXS11 PGTW 062103
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL)
B. 06/2030Z
C. 18.96S
D. 118.91E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/21HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT.
INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/1720Z 18.62S 119.30E AMS2
TIMMERMAN

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-7 08:55

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-7 09:10 编辑

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0106 UTC 07/02/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.0S
Longitude: 118.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (253 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (16 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 982 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC)       : degrees    :    nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  07/0600: 19.4S 117.6E:    030 (060):  055  (100):  978
+12:  07/1200: 19.8S 117.1E:    040 (080):  060  (110):  973
+18:  07/1800: 20.3S 116.6E:    045 (085):  065  (120):  969
+24:  08/0000: 20.9S 116.0E:    050 (090):  065  (120):  969
+36:  08/1200: 22.1S 114.9E:    055 (105):  050  (095):  980
+48:  09/0000: 23.5S 114.4E:    070 (135):  035  (065):  990
+60:  09/1200: 25.2S 114.9E:    090 (170):  030  (055):  994
+72:  10/0000: 26.7S 116.6E:    120 (220):  030  (055):  994
+96:  11/0000:          :             :          :
+120: 12/0000:          :             :          :
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is developing in a favourable environment and
expected to reach category 3 overnight.

Both microwave and EIR/VIS satellite imagery show improved deep curved banding
around the centre of Mitchell. The cyclone has been located with moderate
confidence using Port Hedland Radar.

Intensity has been increased to 50 knots based on subjective Dvorak and
objective guidance.
Dvorak Analysis yields DT of 3.5, based on a curved band pattern with a 3-hour
averaged wrap of 0.8-1.0. MET is 3.5 based on a D trend, PAT is unadjusted and
remains at 3.5.
Objective guidance (1-minute mean) at 2300 UTC; ADT 51 kn, AiDT 42 kn, DPRINT
51 kn, and DMINT(at 2139UTC) 54 kn and SATCON (1900 UTC) 58 kn.

The system is moving over warm SSTs in a moderate shear environment, there is
abundant moisture and good upper outflow. An upper trough over southern WA is
forecast to improve the upper outflow over the next 24 hours which means it is
likely Mitchell will continue to intensify and it is now forecast to reach
category 3 (65 knots) by about 1800 UTC 7 February. The cyclone will move
closer to the coast overnight and tomorrow and land interaction, more than any
other factor, is likely to limit the development. Once Mitchell moves over land
it will weaken and is forecast to weaken below tropical cyclone strength during
Monday morning.

Mitchell is being steered west-southwest under the influence of a mid-level
ridge to the southeast. Numerical guidance shows very good consistency in the
forecast track over the next 24-36 hours. An upper-level trough moving across
southern Western Australia during today is expected to weaken the ridge,
resulting in Mitchell gradually turning towards the south and then south east
during Sunday and Monday.

There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough  s
influence on both the movement and intensity of Mitchell on Sunday, leading to
uncertainty in the timing and location of landfall. At present, Mitchell is
forecast to cross the west Pilbara coast during Sunday afternoon. A number of
ensemble members maintain a west southwest movement and turn Mitchell to the
south to the west of Exmouth meaning it could remain over water for longer. In
this scenario the turn to the southeast then brings the system in over the
upper west coast of WA. By Monday Mitchell is most likely to be moving inland
over the Gascoyne and weakening.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/0730 UTC.

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 8:54 am WST on Saturday 7 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2 intensity forecast to reach severe category 3 cyclone as it passes just north of Karratha overnight and then along the west Pilbara coast on Sunday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
De Grey to Ningaloo, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow, and Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara to include Pannawonica.

Watch Zone
Ningaloo to Carnarvon and adjacent inland areas.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 19.0 degrees South 118.4 degrees East, estimated to be 145 kilometres north of Port Hedland and 255 kilometres northeast of Karratha.

Movement: west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) lies to the north of Port Hedland is intensifying and now forecast to reach category 3 cyclone overnight.

Mitchell is forecast to move to the southwest closer to the Pilbara coast today, and track close to the west Pilbara coast during Sunday before taking a more southerly track over land during Monday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 170 km/h are possible over the coastal parts of the Pilbara around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham overnight, extending to Onslow during Sunday as the destructive core of Mitchell moves along the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 km/h are forecast around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham from as early as this evening, extending to west towards Onslow Sunday and possibly Exmouth Sunday night.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible along the coastal parts between De Grey and Dampier during Saturday afternoon, extending west to Onslow and Exmouth and through inland parts of the western Pilbara, including Pannawonica, from early Sunday morning.

Widespread moderate to locally HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible from later today with this risk persisting through the weekend for the central and west Pilbara coast extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING in the Karratha region early Sunday morning, and then in the Onslow region on the Sunday afternoon.

Elsewhere on the west Pilbara coast including Exmouth, tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Saturday and Sunday which may produce FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm AWST Saturday 07 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am February 7	2	19.0S	118.4E	35
+6hr	2 pm February 7	2	19.4S	117.6E	60
+12hr	8 pm February 7	2	19.8S	117.1E	80
+18hr	2 am February 8	3	20.3S	116.6E	85
+24hr	8 am February 8	3	20.9S	116.0E	90
+36hr	8 pm February 8	2	22.1S	114.9E	105
+48hr	8 am February 9	1	23.5S	114.4E	135
+60hr	8 pm February 9	tropical low	25.2S	114.9E	170
+72hr	8 am February 10	tropical low	26.7S	116.6E	220

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-2-7 09:56

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-2-7 10:55 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 19.0S 118.4E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 118.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.9S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.9S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.1S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.6S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.0S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 118.0E.
07FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
79 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND
080300Z.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.0S 118.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 79 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WITH TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THE MSI ALSO HAS SHOWN HINTS OF AN EYE FORMING
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH A SLIGHT WARM SPOT DEVELOPING. A
062137Z WSFM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THAT THE MICROWAVE EYE
HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED AND SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM
PORT HEDLAND ALONG WITH THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF THE AGENCY
DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 20S REMAINS IN A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW
(5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
APRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 070010Z
CIMSS AIDT: 42 KTS AT 070010Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 54 KTS AT 062139Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 60 KTS AT 070010Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD,
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, THROUGH TAU 36.
LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR THE EXMOUTH GULF AROUND TAU 36.
THE PRECISE LANDFALL LOCATION COULD VARY IN RESPONSE TO SMALL
CHANGES TO THE TRAJECTORY, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A DIRECT
LANDFALL TO THE NORTH WEST CAPE. AS IT STANDS, LANDFALL IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE EXMOUTH GULF. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD, ANCHORING OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.
THIS WILL CAUSE 20S TO BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. REGARDING
INTENSITY, 20S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 12-
24 HOURS TO A PEAK OF AROUND 80 KTS IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ONCE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT MORE WITH
THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA, 20S WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. NEAR TAU 48,
20S WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, FURTHER AIDING IN WEAKENING THE VORTEX. WEAKENING
BELOW TC STRENGTH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS FURTHER INLAND, EAST OF SHARK BAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM
MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE. DISCOUNTING
NAVGEM, THERE IS A MERE 25 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36.
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD THEN INCREASES TO 75 NM AT TAU 72. THE CLOSE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH
MODELS SHOWING INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12-24. NOTABLY, MULTIPLE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS HAVE TRIGGERED THIS RUN. ON THE
OTHER END, HAFS-A APPEARS TO BE INCORRECTLY PORTRAYING THE SYSTEM
THIS RUN, SHOWING NO INTENSIFICATION AT ALL. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSER TO HWRF, CALLING FOR A PEAK OF 80 KTS,
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT AN EVEN HIGHER
PEAK OCCURS BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
AS INDICATED BY THE RI AIDS. MODELS THEN AGREE ON WEAKENING FROM TAU
36 ONWARD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

复制代码

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-2-7 11:05

JTWC 00Z分析维持T3.5

TPXS11 PGTW 070000
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL)
B. 06/2330Z
C. 18.94S
D. 118.47E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .90 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET & PT AGREE. DBO DT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE
MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/2137Z 18.80S 118.78E MMWI
TIMMERMAN

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-7 11:20

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：郝淑会、张增海  签发：王海平  2026 年 02 月 07 日 10 时
“米切尔”于昨日夜间生成

时  间: 2月7日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “米切尔”，MITCHELL

中心位置: 南纬19度，东经118.4度

强度等级: 热带气旋（2级）

最大风力: 10级，25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 982百帕

参考位置: 距离西澳大利亚州卡拉萨东北方向约255公里

变化过程: 过去12小时，“米切尔”由8级加强为10级

预报结论: “米切尔”将以每小时约15-20公里的速度向西偏南方向沿着西澳大利亚皮尔巴拉海岸平行移动，强度还将继续加强，并于2月9日在澳大利亚西北部昂斯洛以南地区登陆，尔后转向南行并逐渐减弱。受其影响，澳大利亚西北部近海及沿岸地区将出现9-11级大风，阵风可达12级以上；“米切尔”登陆后内陆西部地区将有7-9级大风。气旋中心经过的沿岸及内陆地区将出现大范围暴雨至大暴雨，极易引发山洪和暴洪。

图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月7日08时00分）

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-7 11:58

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-7 12:05 编辑

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 11:59 am WST on Saturday 7 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), is forecast to reach severe category 3 cyclone as it passes just north of Karratha later today and then along the west Pilbara coast on Sunday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
De Grey to Ningaloo, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow, and Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara to include Pannawonica.

Watch Zone
Ningaloo to Carnarvon and adjacent inland areas.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 11:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 19.2 degrees South 118.0 degrees East, estimated to be 140 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 210 kilometres northeast of Karratha.

Movement: west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is intensifying to the north of Port Hedland and is forecast to reach category 3 later today. Further intensification is possible tonight.

Mitchell is forecast to move to the southwest closer to the Pilbara coast this afternoon, and track close to the west Pilbara coast during Sunday before taking a more southerly track over land during Monday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 205 km/h are possible over the coastal parts of the Pilbara around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham overnight, extending to Onslow during Sunday as the destructive core of Mitchell moves along the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham from as early as this evening, extending west towards Onslow during Sunday and possibly Exmouth Sunday night.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 125 km/h are possible along the coastal parts between De Grey and Dampier during Saturday afternoon, extending west to Onslow and Exmouth and through inland parts of the western Pilbara, including Pannawonica, from early Sunday morning.

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely from later today with this risk persisting through the weekend for the central and west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may develop around the central Pilbara coast west of Wickham overnight and Sunday morning.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING in the Karratha region early Sunday morning, and then in the Onslow region on the Sunday afternoon.

Elsewhere on the west Pilbara coast including Exmouth, tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Saturday and Sunday which may produce FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Saturday 07 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 am February 7	2	19.2S	118.0E	35
+6hr	5 pm February 7	3	19.7S	117.1E	60
+12hr	11 pm February 7	3	20.1S	116.6E	80
+18hr	5 am February 8	3	20.7S	116.1E	95
+24hr	11 am February 8	3	21.3S	115.5E	95
+36hr	11 pm February 8	1	22.5S	114.6E	100
+48hr	11 am February 9	tropical low	24.2S	114.3E	125
+60hr	11 pm February 9	tropical low	25.9S	115.3E	160
+72hr	11 am February 10	tropical low	27.3S	117.4E	220

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-2-7 12:15

JTWC 03Z分析升至T4.0

TPXS11 PGTW 070315 COR
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL)
B. 07/0231Z
C. 19.38S
D. 117.85E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.1 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS A 3.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/2137Z 18.80S 118.78E MMWI
BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-2-7 14:52

JTWC 06Z分析维持T4.0

TPXS11 PGTW 070601
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL)
B. 07/0530Z
C. 19.43S
D. 117.31E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.1 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE
MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BRYANT

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-7 15:00

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-7 18:00 编辑

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0700 UTC 07/02/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.4S
Longitude: 117.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (246 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (16 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Central Pressure: 974 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 85 nm (155 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC)       : degrees    :    nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  07/1200: 19.9S 116.8E:    030 (060):  075  (140):  961
+12:  07/1800: 20.4S 116.3E:    040 (080):  085  (155):  952
+18:  08/0000: 20.9S 115.8E:    045 (090):  085  (155):  952
+24:  08/0600: 21.6S 115.2E:    050 (095):  085  (155):  952
+36:  08/1800: 22.8S 114.5E:    060 (105):  040  (075):  987
+48:  09/0600: 24.6S 114.4E:    070 (130):  030  (055):  994
+60:  09/1800: 26.2S 115.7E:    095 (170):  030  (055):  994
+72:  10/0600: 27.4S 118.1E:    130 (245):  025  (045):  996
+96:  11/0600:          :             :          :
+120: 12/0600:          :             :          :
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is developing in a favourable environment and
expected to reach category 3 this evening with further intensification likely.

The daytime VIS and EIR imagery suggests curved banding is wrapping around the
centre and a weak, large transient eye was briefly visible on imagery. The
circulation is also clearly visible on Port Hedland radar with good confidence.

Intensity has been increased to 60 knots based on subjective Dvorak and
objective guidance.

Dvorak Analysis yields DT of 4.0, based on a curved band pattern with a 3-hour
averaged wrap of 1.0-1.2, EIR yielded a DT of 5.0 with a LG surround and no
adjustment made for a warmer eye. MET is 4.0 based on a D+ trend, PAT is
unadjusted.

Objective guidance (1-minute mean) at 0530 UTC; ADT 59 kn, AiDT 51 kn, DPRINT
56 kn, and DMINT(at 0213UTC) 61 kn and SATCON 78 kn.

The system is located in a favourable environment, warm SSTs, moderate shear,
abundant moisture and good upper outflow. An upper trough over southern WA is
forecast to improve the upper outflow over the next 24 hours which means it is
likely Mitchell will continue to intensify and it is now forecast to reach
severe category 3 (65 knots) by about 0900 UTC 7 February, further
intensification to about 85 knots is forecast overnight. The cyclone will move
closer to the coast overnight and tomorrow and land interaction, more than any
other factor, is likely to limit the development. Once Mitchell moves over land
it will weaken and is forecast to weaken below tropical cyclone strength during
Monday morning.

Mitchell is being steered west-southwest under the influence of a mid-level
ridge to the southeast. Numerical guidance shows very good consistency in the
forecast track over the next 24-36 hours. An upper-level trough moving across
southern Western Australia during today is expected to weaken the ridge,
resulting in Mitchell gradually turning towards the south and then south east
during Sunday and Monday.

There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough  s
influence on both the movement and intensity of Mitchell on Sunday, leading to
uncertainty in the timing and location of landfall. At present, Mitchell is
forecast to cross the west Pilbara coast during Sunday afternoon. A number of
ensemble members maintain a west southwest movement and turn Mitchell to the
south to the west of Exmouth meaning it could remain over water for longer. In
this scenario the turn to the southeast then brings the system in over the
upper west coast of WA. By Monday Mitchell is most likely to be moving inland
over the Gascoyne and weakening.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/1330 UTC.

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 2:59 pm WST on Saturday 7 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), is forecast to reach severe category 3 cyclone as it passes just north of Karratha later today and then along the west Pilbara coast on Sunday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Port Hedland to Coral Bay, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow, and Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara to include Pannawonica.

Watch Zone
Coral Bay to Carnarvon and adjacent inland areas.

Cancelled Zone
De Grey to Port Hedland

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 19.4 degrees South 117.5 degrees East, estimated to be 165 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and 150 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland.

Movement: west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is intensifying north northeast of Karratha and forecast to reach category 3 later today with further intensification possible overnight.

Mitchell is forecast to move to the southwest closer to the Pilbara coast this evening and pass north of Karratha tonight, and then track close to the west Pilbara coast during Sunday before taking a more southerly track over land during Monday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 220 km/h are possible over the coastal parts of the Pilbara around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham tonight especially if Mitchell moves closer than forecast, extending to Onslow during Sunday as the destructive core of Mitchell moves along the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham from this evening, extending west towards Onslow during Sunday and possibly Exmouth Sunday night.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 125 km/h are possible along the coastal parts between Port Hedland and Dampier, extending west to Onslow and Exmouth and through inland parts of the western Pilbara, including Pannawonica, .

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely from later today with this risk persisting through the weekend for the central and west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may develop around the central Pilbara coast west of Wickham overnight and Sunday morning.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING in the Karratha region early Sunday morning, and then in the Onslow region on the Sunday afternoon.

Elsewhere on the west Pilbara coast including Exmouth, tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Saturday and Sunday which may produce FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm AWST Saturday 07 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm February 7	2	19.4S	117.5E	35
+6hr	8 pm February 7	3	19.9S	116.8E	60
+12hr	2 am February 8	3	20.4S	116.3E	80
+18hr	8 am February 8	3	20.9S	115.8E	90
+24hr	2 pm February 8	3	21.6S	115.2E	95
+36hr	2 am February 9	1	22.8S	114.5E	105
+48hr	2 pm February 9	tropical low	24.6S	114.4E	130
+60hr	2 am February 10	tropical low	26.2S	115.7E	170
+72hr	2 pm February 10	tropical low	27.4S	118.1E	245

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西澳北部近海三级强热带气旋“米切尔”(21U/20S.Mitchell) - 横穿澳大利亚北部，西行出海发展 - BoM:75KT JTWC:85KT

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