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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-2-11 12:00 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 48.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 48.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.9S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.5S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.3S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.1S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.7S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.0S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 25.1S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 47.6E.
11FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
62 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 985 MB.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 110300
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR
- 007//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 18.2S 48.3E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 62 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
- MADAGASCAR
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: XX FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE (TC) 21S (GEZANI) WITH INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
- STRUCTURES WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
- AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS MADAGASCARS ANKARATRA MASSIF.
- TC 21S MADE LANDFALL AROUND 101800Z, WHERE ITS ONCE WELL-DEFINED
- EYE-FEATURE QUICKLY COLLAPSED DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL INTERACTION. THE
- ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MARGINAL SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH
- LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF LESS THAN 10 KTS, SUPPORTIVE
- UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND PERSISTENT INTERACTION WITH
- MADAGASCARS RUGGED TERRAIN. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED
- WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
- INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
- STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODEL DATA. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, TC 21S
- HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE
- FROM THE SYSTEMS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT STRUCTURE.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
- CENTERED TO THE SOUTH
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
- VWS: 5-10 KTS
- SST: OVER LAND
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE TRACK FORECAST DURING THE LATER
- TAUS HAS STARTED TO SLOW AND TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD INTO THE END
- OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 21S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK
- WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 18
- HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE STR CENTERED TO THE
- SOUTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER OPEN WATER, THE CYCLONE
- WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE STR AXIS NEAR TAU 72.
- FOLLOWING TAU 72, TC 21S WILL BEGIN ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
- OF THE STR AXIS AS THE TRACK BECOMES GENERALLY SOUTHWARD FOR 24
- HOURS UNTIL TAU 92. TC GEZANI IS THEN FORECASTED TO ENTER A PERIOD
- OF COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
- JUST EAST OF MADAGASCAR ADDING A SOUTHERLY CHANNEL OF GRADIENT
- WINDS THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS, DRIVING THE CYCLONE EASTWARD INTO TAU
- 120 AS THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAINST A
- DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. REGARDING
- INTENSITY, TC 21S IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER THE
- NEXT 12-18 HOURS DUE TO PERSISTENT FRICTIONAL INFLUENCES AS THE
- CYCLONE
- TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. AS THE CYCLONE RE-EMERGES OVER OPEN
- WATER BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 18, TC GEZANI IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN
- GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS,
- WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND SUPPORTIVE OUTFLOW ALOFT. AS THE
- CYCLONE BEGINS ROUNDING THE STR AXIS, CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO
- 80 KTS IS FORECASTED WITH ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL DUAL-CHANNEL
- OUTFLOW. FOLLOWING TAU 72, VWS IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TO
- MORE THAN 15 KTS AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL,
- INITIATING A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND TO 65 KTS BETWEEN TAU 96 AND
- TAU 120.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AND ARTIFICIAL
- INTELLIGENCE (AI) GUIDANCE REMAIN IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
- THE INITIAL 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK
- SPREAD OF JUST 77 NM. FOLLOWING TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL AND AI
- SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, INDICATING A POTENTIAL BIFURCATION
- TREND DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS
- BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES
- SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120, WITH THE BULK OF GUIDANCE
- SHOWING AN EASTWARD TRACK UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
- FEW OUTLIERS REMAIN, WITH NAVGEM INDICATING A WESTWARD TRACK INTO
- MOZAMBIQUE AFTER TAU 96 AND THE UKMET DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION
- SHOWING POLEWARD PROGRESSION AFTER TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
- HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND NEAR THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL
- CONSENSUS UNTIL TAU 72, AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO
- UNCERTAINTIES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING FLOW. REGARDING
- INTENSITY, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
- CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE BULK OF THE JTWC
- MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CHARACTERIZES GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
- AS THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER WATER, WITH A STEADY WEAKENING TREND
- BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-2-10 18:25
