MEDIUM - 雅浦岛东北95W - 11.7N 139.7E - 或将北上影响关岛 - JMA:LPA

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ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.0N 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 74 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
090414Z AMSR2 89GHZ PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE HESITANT
REGARDING THE FORMATION OF 95W WITH GFS STILL BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODEL. ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF ITS MEMBERS AND CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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