关岛东南2604号热带风暴“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 西行趋向关岛，数值看好强度

桑美和伊欧凯

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-4-9 08:08
GFS 18Z有所东调，预报将在133E附近转向北上，巅峰约934百帕

环流相当大

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC首报上望95kt不封顶

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 090328
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (SE OF GUAM)
B. 09/0230Z
C. 8.15N
D. 151.76E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/18HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

hei

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-4-9 11:28
JTWC首报上望95kt不封顶

有點保守，FNV3已經28/50成員報CAT 5

Enceladus

FNV3 0818Z 平均138节

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 00Z有所东调，预报将在135E附近转向北上，巅峰约933百帕

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 06Z分析DT1 MET1 PT1 FT1 CI1，命名机会仍然不大

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        4
featureDirectionOfMotion:        226 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        2.57 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        4
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        1
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        3
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        1
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1
finalTNumberType:        1

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析维持T2.0

TXPQ22 KNES 090607
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B.  09/0530Z
C.  8.2N
D.  152.3E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 4.5/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=2.5 MET=2.0 PT=2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...FISHER

Enceladus

FNV3 0900Z 平均134节

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 090639
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (SE OF GUAM)
B. 09/0600Z
C. 8.44N
D. 152.39E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/18HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER