2605号热带气旋“黑格比”(05W.Hagupit)机构发报专帖

ygsj24

WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 8.7N 138.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 67 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS POORLY
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A FEW BRIEF PULSES OF CONVECTION TO
THE WEST. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PRODUCING AMPLE CIRRUS
LEAVES THE LLCC COMPLETELY OBSCURED IN THE MSI. A 080437Z AMSR-2 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE EXPOSED SOME EVIDENCE OF LOW-LEVEL BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC BENEATH THE CIRRUS CANOPY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AMSR-2 IMAGE. LACKING ANY RECENT WIND SPEED
DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED
AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). A LAYER OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR BETWEEN 600-300 MB AND
MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR SERVE TO OFFSET THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 080600Z
   CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 080600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 080600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 33 KTS AT 080417Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 080600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK AND
MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAGUPIT) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. THE EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THE STR WILL RESULT IN A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT
FOR 05W, CAUSING ITS TRACK SPEED TO SLOW AND TURN GRADUALLY
POLEWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFSETTING
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36,
FURTHER ENHANCED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL
BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM TO INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND THAT IS
FORECAST TO RESULT IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. DISSIPATION WILL BE
AIDED BY STEADILY INCREASING WESTERLY MID-LAYER SHEAR, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW SUPPORT IN THE LATER
TAUS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL
POLEWARD TURN AFTER TAU 72. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 96 IS 230
NM, HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF MODEL TRACKS ARE CLUSTERED AROUND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU
72, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER OWING TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
DISSIPATING STRUCTURE AND POLEWARD TURN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SHIPS MEMBERS, HAS COME INTO VERY GOOD
ALIGNMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN, WITH THE REST OF THE MEMBERS
REMAINING WITHIN AN ENVELOPE OF ABOUT 5 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED ON THE
HIGHER END OF THIS ENVELOPE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

yhh

台 风 公 报
预报：贾莉  签发：黄奕武  2026 年 05 月 08 日 18 时
“黑格比”将向西偏北方向移动

今年第5号台风“黑格比”（热带风暴级）的中心今天（8日）下午5点钟位于菲律宾马尼拉东偏南方向约2050公里的洋面上，就是北纬8.9度、东经138.9度，中心附近最大风力有8级（20米/秒），中心最低气压为995百帕，七级风圈半径为160-280公里。

预计，“黑格比”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏北方向移动， 12日在菲律宾以东洋面转向偏北方向移动，并逐渐减弱消散。“黑格比”未来对我国海区无影响。

ygsj24

台風第5号(ハグピート)
2026年05月08日18時45分発表

08日18時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯8度35分 (8.6度)
東経139度20分 (139.3度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        998 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        北東側 390 km (210 NM)
南西側 220 km (120 NM)

09日18時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        カロリン諸島
予報円の中心        北緯9度55分 (9.9度)
東経135度55分 (135.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15 km/h (9 kt)
中心気圧        998 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径        120 km (65 NM)

10日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯11度20分 (11.3度)
東経133度30分 (133.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧        1000 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        210 km (115 NM)

11日15時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯12度30分 (12.5度)
東経131度00分 (131.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧        1006 hPa
予報円の半径        300 km (160 NM)

yhh

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 081200
CCAA 08120 99398 11165
HAGUPIT 05089 11389 13123 225// 92806
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 081200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS HAGUPIT 2605 (2605) INITIAL TIME 081200 UTC
00HR 8.9N 138.9E 995HPA 20M/S
30KTS WINDS 280KM NORTHEAST
250KM SOUTHEAST
160KM SOUTHWEST
160KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 21KM/H
P+12HR 9.6N 136.8E 990HPA 23M/S
P+24HR 10.3N 135.5E 990HPA 23M/S
P+36HR 10.9N 134.4E 985HPA 25M/S
P+48HR 11.5N 133.1E 990HPA 23M/S
P+60HR 12.1N 131.9E 995HPA 20M/S
P+72HR 12.8N 130.6E 998HPA 18M/S
P+96HR 14.3N 129.7E 1000HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

ygsj24

台風第5号(ハグピート)
2026年05月08日21時45分発表

08日21時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯8度35分 (8.6度)
東経139度00分 (139.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧        1000 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        北東側 390 km (210 NM)
南西側 220 km (120 NM)

09日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯10度05分 (10.1度)
東経135度30分 (135.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15 km/h (9 kt)
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        120 km (65 NM)

10日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯11度20分 (11.3度)
東経132度30分 (132.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        210 km (115 NM)

11日21時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯12度10分 (12.2度)
東経130度00分 (130.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧        1006 hPa
予報円の半径        300 km (160 NM)

1. WTPQ30 RJTD 081200
   
2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
   
3. REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2605 HAGUPIT (2605)
   
4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   
5.   TS HAGUPIT IS LOCATED AT 8.6N, 139.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
   
6.   POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
   
7.   POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
   
8.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
   
9.   IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
   
10.   HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
    
11.   AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
    
12.   LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
    
13.   DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
    
14. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    
15.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    
16.   PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
    
17.   CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
    
18.   DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
    
19.   MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
    
20.   CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
    
21. 3.TRACK FORECAST
    
22.   THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    
23.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
    
24.   BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
    
25.   FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
    
26.   NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
    
27. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    
28.   THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR.
    
29.   THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
    
30.   FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
    
31. =

复制代码

ygsj24

No.5 HAGUPIT KMA | Issued at(KST) : Fri, 8 May 2026, 22:00

Date(UTC)	Intensity	Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Central Pressure (hPa)	Position		Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
		m/s	km/h		Lat (N)	Lon (E)
Fri, 8 May 2026, 12:00 Analysis	1	20	72	996	8.7	138.7	W	11	240 [SW 120]		-
Sat, 9 May 2026, 00:00 Forecast	1	21	76	994	9.5	137.0	WNW	17	250 [SW 130]		40
Sat, 9 May 2026, 12:00 Forecast	1	20	72	996	10.2	135.4	WNW	16	240 [SW 120]		80
Sun, 10 May 2026, 00:00 Forecast	1	19	68	998	10.8	134.0	WNW	14	230 [SW 110]		110
Sun, 10 May 2026, 12:00 Forecast	1	18	65	1000	11.5	132.7	WNW	13	220 [SW 100]		130
Mon, 11 May 2026, 12:00 Forecast	TD	15	54	1006	12.6	130.6	WNW	11			190

ygsj24

輕度颱風哈格比
編號第 05 號
國際命名 HAGUPIT

現況
2026年05月08日20時
中心位置在北緯 8.9 度，東經 138.8 度
過去移動方向 西北西
過去移動時速 21公里
中心氣壓 1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風平均暴風半徑 100 公里
　西北側 120 公里 東北側 120 公里
　西南側 80 公里 東南側 80 公里
十級風平均暴風半徑 - 公里

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
西北西 時速 23 公里
預測 05月09日02時
中心位置在北緯 9.2 度，東經 137.6 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 40 公里

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
西北西 時速 12 公里
預測 05月09日08時
中心位置在北緯 9.4 度，東經 137.0 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 40 公里

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
西北西 時速 12 公里
預測 05月09日14時
中心位置在北緯 9.7 度，東經 136.4 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 80 公里

預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為
西北西 時速 12 公里
預測 05月09日20時
中心位置在北緯 10.0 度，東經 135.8 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 90 公里

預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為
西北西 時速 12 公里
預測 05月10日08時
中心位置在北緯 10.6 度，東經 134.6 度
中心氣壓1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 100 公里

預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為
西北西 時速 12 公里
預測 05月10日20時
中心位置在北緯 11.2 度，東經 133.4 度
中心氣壓1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 140 公里

預測 48-72 小時平均移向移速為
西北西 時速 13 公里
預測 05月11日20時
中心位置在北緯 12.7 度，東經 131.1 度
中心氣壓1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 200 公里

預測 72-96 小時平均移向移速為
西北 時速 10 公里
預測 05月12日20時
中心位置在北緯 14.1 度，東經 129.3 度
中心氣壓1004百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 360 公里
預測 96 小時內減弱為熱帶性低氣壓

yhh

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 012   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z --- NEAR 8.7N 138.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 138.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 9.2N 136.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 9.8N 135.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 10.4N 133.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 11.0N 132.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 12.1N 129.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 13.3N 128.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 137.8E.
08MAY26. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM
SOUTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
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yhh

熱帶風暴 黑格比
在香港時間 2026 年 05 月 08 日 20 時的最新資料
位置:  北緯 8.8 度，東經 138.6 度 (即香港之東南偏東約 3000 公里)
中心附近最高持續風速:  每小時 75 公里

黑格比會在未來數日大致移向菲律賓以東海域。

預測的位置和強度

香港時間	位置		熱帶氣旋類別	中心附近最高持續風速
2026 年 05 月 09 日 20 時	北 緯 10.5 度	東 經 135.6 度	熱帶風暴	每小時 85 公里
2026 年 05 月 10 日 20 時	北 緯 11.8 度	東 經 133.2 度	熱帶風暴	每小時 75 公里
2026 年 05 月 11 日 20 時	北 緯 13.0 度	東 經 131.0 度	熱帶風暴	每小時 65 公里
2026 年 05 月 12 日 20 時	北 緯 14.3 度	東 經 130.1 度	熱帶低氣壓	每小時 55 公里
2026 年 05 月 13 日 20 時	北 緯 14.7 度	東 經 130.1 度	熱帶低氣壓	每小時 45 公里

yhh

WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 8.7N 138.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 48 NM SOUTH OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT IS STILL EVIDENT. A 081143Z METOP-B MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
CONFIRMS THE SIGNIFICANT VORTEX TILT, DEPICTING THE DEEP CONVECTION
100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC POSITION. A 081147Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE THAT PASSED OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION FURTHER CONFIRMED THAT THE
LLCC IS NOT CO-LOCATED. THE ASCAT ALSO SHOWED A FIELD OF 25-30 KNOT
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT WIND
SPEEDS BLENDED WITH THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY
ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN EIR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED TO BE MARGINAL
WITH HIGH (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW BEING MITIGATED BY THE APPARENT MID-LEVEL SHEAR CAUSING THE
VORTEX TILT AND PERSISTENT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 081200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 081200Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 27 KTS AT 080843Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 081200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK AND
MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAGUPIT) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72,
THE TRACK SPEED SLOWS AND DRIFTS POLEWARD AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
RIDGE CONTINUES AN EASTWARD MIGRATION AND THE WEAKENING VORTEX
SHALLOWS. IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY, TS 05W HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
EXHIBIT SIGNS OF A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
EXAGGERATED VORTEX TILT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36 IN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 36 UNDER INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, UNTIL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS LARGELY IN AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 170
NM AT TAU 96, EXCLUDING AIFS AS A FAR EASTERN OUTLIER. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER AS
A RESULT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO GROUPINGS, THE FIRST BEING GFS AND HWRF,
WHICH DEPICT GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SECOND GROUPING INCLUDES HAFS-A, COAMPS-TC (GFS BASED), AND SHIPS,
WHICH SUGGESTS 05W WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 30-45 KTS THROUGH
TAU 96. GIVEN THE RECENT DEGRADATION OBSERVED, THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ALIGNED WITH THE FORMER GROUP WITH OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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