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发表于 2025-6-13 04:50
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JTWC/01W/#10/06-12 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.7N 109.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 265 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEEP-LAYER CONVECTIVE CANOPY FULLY OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (WUTIP).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) HAVING A MARGINALLY REDUCED IMPACT ON THE STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS A BIT
MORE SYMMETRICAL, WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED UP TO -82 C SINCE THE PEAK OF -92 C YESTERDAY,
HOWEVER AS THE LLCC IS NOW TRANSITING AROUND THE ISLAND OF HAINAN,
THE SYSTEM IS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.
AVAILABILITY OF WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
AROUND THE ISLAND, COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE DEEP-LAYER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL ALSO AID IN ANY POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION,
HOWEVER WIND FIELD INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE A
DETRIMENTAL EFFECT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AIDED BY THE RADAR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES, OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
LISTED BELOW, AS WELL AS A 121430Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS WIND
MEASUREMENTS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 121430Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 121710Z
CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 121800Z
CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 121800Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 51 KTS AT 121800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 01W IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE AXIS OF A STR TO
THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LLCC
IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL OUTSIDE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HAINAN ISLAND,
PRIOR TO MAKING A NORTHEASTWARD TURN, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO LANDFALL
NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN, IT IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY, DESPITE POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION, AND REACH 55 KTS
BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24. AS SOON AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER
MAINLAND CHINA, IT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATING AND TO COMPLETE
THE PROCESS BY TAU 72.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, AS WITNESSED BY A 30 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
MAXIMUM PRIOR TO LANDFALL, OPENING UP TO 75 NM BY TAU 72. THE ONLY
OUTLIER IS CURRENTLY GFS, WHICH PREDICTS A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERN TRACK
SOON AFTER LANDFALL, HOWEVER THE DISTANCE FROM THE CONSENSUS IS JUST
30 NM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS
PREDICTING INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE INITIAL 12-24 HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. NOTABLE OUTLIERS ARE HAFS AND
NAVGEM-DRIVEN COAMPS-TC, WITH BOTH INDICATING PEAK INTENSITY AROUND
70-75 KTS, HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE LIKELY TIMELINE OF THE LANDFALL,
THOSE ARE ASSESSED TO BE UNLIKELY SCENARIOS. JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS ARE BOTH LAID IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH HIGH AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ACCORDINGLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-6-12 23:50
