小笠原群岛以东2502号热带风暴“圣帕”(02W.Sepat) - 北上趋向日本关东近海

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JTWC 21Z分析维持T2.0/2.5

TPPN10 PGTW 232109
A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT)
B. 23/2030Z
C. 28.57N
D. 141.53E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 22A/PBO SMALL CDO/ANMTN. WELL-DEFINED CDO OF 45NM IN
DIAMETER YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

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GFS 18Z继续预报逐渐北上，靠近本州岛

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JMA 00Z分析DT2 MET2 PT2 FT2 CI2

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        4
featureDirectionOfMotion:        303 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        6.69 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        2
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        1
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        3
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        0.5
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        1
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
finalTNumberType:        2

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JTWC 00Z分析T2.0/2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 240008
A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT)
B. 23/2330Z
C. 29.08N
D. 141.01E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 22A/PBO SMALL CDO/ANMTN. IRREGULAR CDO OF 75NM IN
DIAMETER YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

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SSD 00Z分析维持T2.5/3.0

TXPQ24 KNES 240021
TCSWNP
A.  02W (SEPAT)
B.  23/2330Z
C.  29.2N
D.  141.0E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...4/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET AND THE PT
BOTH EQUAL 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO IRREGULAR CONVECTION
IN THE BANDING FEATURE.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

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ECMWF 18Z系集

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红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2025-6-24 08:14
JTWC 00Z分析T2.0/2.0

JTWC稍早前修改00Z分析，维持T2.0/2.5

TPPN10 PGTW 240137 COR
A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT)
B. 23/2331Z
C. 29.08N
D. 141.01E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 22A/PBO SMALL CDO/ANMTN. IRREGULAR CDO OF 75NM IN
DIAMETER YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO DT.
CORRECTED THE FINAL T-NUMBER.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/2111Z  28.68N  141.68E  SSMS
   23/2114Z  28.87N  141.47E  SSMS
   HUYNH

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JTWC 03Z分析升回T2.5/2.5

TPPN10 PGTW 240251
A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT)
B. 24/0230Z
C. 29.65N
D. 140.67E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .4 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/2111Z  28.68N  141.68E  SSMS
   23/2114Z  28.87N  141.47E  SSMS
   24/0138Z  29.55N  140.72E  GPMI
   HUYNH

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今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描显示中心东北侧有成片30-35kt风旗

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HKO热带气旋路径概率预报图（2025年6月24日更新）