迪戈加西亚东南强热带气旋第5号“格兰特”(03U/09S.Grant) - 逐渐西行 - MFR:110KT JTWC:120KT

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：钟晖子、刘涛  签发：许映龙  2025 年 12 月 28 日 18 时
“格兰特”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 28日14时（北京时）

海  域: 东南印度洋

命  名: “格兰特”，GRANT

中心位置:  南纬12.7度，东经85.5度

强度等级:  三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 13级，38米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 982百帕

参考位置: 距离科科斯群岛偏西方向约1240公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“格兰特”强度由10级加强到13级

预报结论: “格兰特”将以每小时1-5公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年12月28日14时00分）

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WTIO30 FMEE 281246
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/5/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 84.5 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/29 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/29 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2025/12/30 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/12/30 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/31 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/12/31 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/01 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2026/01/02 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GRANT'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND SYMMETRICAL, AS WELL AS
AN EYE FEATURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. POWERFUL CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE
OCCURRING AROUND THE EYEWALL, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS CLEARLY VISIBLE AT SUNSET. THE
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IS REFLECTED BY A NICE CIRRUS OUTFLOW TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE 1010Z SSMIS-F18 AND 1105Z
GPM-GMI MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A COMPACT EYEWALL THAT IS STRONGER THAN
LAST NIGHT BUT REMAINS SLIGHTLY OPEN ON ITS SOUTHWEST SIDE, POSSIBLY
RELATED TO SOME REMNANT SHEAR. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS
A DT BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.0 IN A EMBEDDED CENTER CONFIGURATION AND A
MET/PT AT 5.0, LEADING TO AN ESTIMATED FT AT 5.0-. INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 75 KT AT 12UTC, REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE OBJECTIVE CIMSS
GUIDANCE, WHICH PROBABLY SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATES THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSITY DUE TO GRANT'S VERY SMALL SIZE (MIDGET-LIKE CYCLONE).

GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE TRACK COULD SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST OR
NORTH-WEST, DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM'S MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING, AFFECTING THE STEERING FLOW. MODEL DISPERSION HAS
DECREASED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE
SIGNIFICANT BEYOND THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
UNTIL TUESDAY (LOW WIND SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE). IN PARTICULAR, INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WHILE THE
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER AN AREA OF VERY WARM WATERS BY MONDAY (SST NEAR
29C, HIGH TCHP VALUES), IN COMBINATION WITH GRANT'S SMALL SIZE,
SHOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE. HOWEVER, THE PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO GRANT'S
SMALL SIZE. FROM MID-WEEK ONWARDS, THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE
SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO DRY AIR DISRUPTIONS AND
MAKING GRANT WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

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WTXS32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 023   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 84.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 84.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 13.7S 82.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 14.0S 80.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 14.3S 78.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 14.6S 75.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 15.0S 71.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 14.9S 69.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 14.3S 67.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 84.1E. 28DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA,
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281200Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND
291500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 281500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR
   
4. 023//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.1S 84.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 800 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TC 09S HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE
    
18. INFLUENCE OF SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
    
19. INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PERSISTENT, SYMMETRICAL
    
20. SHIELD OF DEEP CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CIRRUS CLOUD COVER OVER A
    
21. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
    
22. IMAGERY INCLUDING A 281102Z GPM GMI PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
23. PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE GMI DATA AND SATELLITE
    
24. POSITION FIXES FORM PGTW, FMEE, FIMP, AND DEMS. THE INITIAL
    
25. INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
    
26. CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
    
27. LISTED BELOW.
    
28. 
    
29. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND PERSISTENCE
    
30. 
    
31. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH
    
32. 
    
33. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
34.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
35.    DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
36.    FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
37.    FIMP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS SATCON: 62 KTS AT 280738Z
    
39.    CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 281200Z
    
40.    CIMSS AIDT: 67 KTS AT 281200Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-MINT: 70 KTS AT 281102Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 60 KTS AT 281230Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
46.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 09S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
    
60. WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING
    
61. INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THEREAFTER, A SECOND
    
62. RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE OVER AS THE
    
63. PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, DEFLECTING TC 09S A BIT EQUATORWARD
    
64. DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLY LOW VERTICAL WIND
    
65. SHEAR, SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A NEAR-TERM
    
66. INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
    
67. PASSING THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION
    
68. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BE
    
69. RESTRICTED AS THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND THE
    
70. COMPACT SYSTEM WILL CONTEND WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SLOW BUT
    
71. STEADY ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND AND INTO THE SYSTEM
    
72. FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, RESULTING IN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.
    
73. 
    
74. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN
    
75. VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DIVERGES SLIGHTLY IN
    
76. ORIENTATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO DIFFERING DEPICTIONS
    
77. OF THE SHIFT TO A NEW STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
    
78. SYSTEM, WITH THE BRACKETING GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL
    
79. SOLUTIONS SEPARATED BY ABOUT 300 NM AT TAU 120. THE CURRENT JTWC
    
80. TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
    
81. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS
    
82. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH HAFS-A DEPICTING RAPID
    
83. INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS ON THE HIGH END
    
84. AND COAMPS-TC AND GFS INDICATING A STEADY STATE OR MODEST
    
85. INTENSIFICATION TO ABOUT 80 KNOTS ON THE LOW END. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
86. CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST 12
    
87. HOURS, ASIDE FROM A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN, SO
    
88. THE CURRENT FORECAST ANTICIPATES A CONTINUATION OF THE RECENT SLOW
    
89. BUT STEADY TREND. HOWEVER, THE COMPACT SYSTEM IS SENSITIVE TO
    
90. SHIFTS IN ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
    
91. RATE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
    
92. 
    
93. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
94.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
95.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
96.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
97.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
98. NNNN

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ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 281842
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/5/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 83.5 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 966 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/29 06 UTC: 13.7 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/29 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/12/30 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/12/30 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/31 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/12/31 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/01 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/02 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GRANT'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED INTO AN EYE
PATTERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY, NOTABLY SINCE 1530Z. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSES ARE FLUCTUATING AROUND 5.0 OVERALL, BUT THEY MAY
UNDERESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF THE PHENOMENON GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE EYE AND MSG2 PARALLAX. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE 1257Z SAR RCM3 PASS
AND THE 1505Z AND 1545Z ASCAT PASSES CONFIRM AN INTENSITY GREATER
THAN 75KT. GIVEN THE TREND, THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO
85KT.

GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL
WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
FROM THURSDAY, A TURN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND A SLOWDOWN OF THE
MOTION ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH IT WEAKENS,
INFLUENCING THE STEERING FLOW AND ON THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SPREAD AMONG MODELS IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT BEYOND THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
UNTIL TUESDAY (LOW WIND SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE). IN PARTICULAR, INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WHILE THE
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER AN AREA OF VERY WARM WATERS BY MONDAY (SST NEAR
29C, HIGH TCHP VALUES), IN COMBINATION WITH GRANT'S SMALL SIZE,
SHOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE. HOWEVER, THE PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO GRANT'S
SMALL SIZE. FROM MID-WEEK ONWARDS, THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE
SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO DRY AIR DISRUPTIONS AND
MAKING GRANT WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 290106
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 82.4 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 951 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/29 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/30 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/12/30 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/12/31 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/31 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

72H: 2026/01/01 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/02 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45

120H: 2026/01/03 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GRANT'S EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSES RANGE FROM 5.5 TO 6.5, BUT THEY MAY UNDERESTIMATE THE
INTENSITY OF THE PHENOMENON GIVEN THE EYE'S SMALL SIZE AND MSG2
PARALLAX. 1947Z AMSR2 DATA CONFIRMS THE TIGHTNESS OF THE GRANT INNER
CORE WITH A 10MN EYE DIAMETER. INTENSITY IS SET AT 100KT BUT THIS MAY
BE AN UNDERESTIMATION.

GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL
WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
FROM THURSDAY, A TURN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND A SLOWDOWN OF THE
MOTION ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH IT WEAKENS,
INFLUENCING THE STEERING FLOW AND ON THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SPREAD AMONG MODELS IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT BEYOND THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
UNTIL TUESDAY (LOW WIND SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE). PARTICULARLY, INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WHILE THE
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER AN AREA OF VERY WARM WATERS BY MONDAY (SST NEAR
29C, HIGH TCHP VALUES), IN COMBINATION WITH GRANT'S SMALL SIZE, HAS
FAVORED ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE. HOWEVER, THE PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO GRANT'S
SMALL SIZE. FROM MID-WEEK ONWARDS, THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE
SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO DRY AIR DISRUPTIONS AND
MAKING GRANT WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

pocketbox

WTXS32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 024   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 82.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 82.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 13.9S 80.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 14.2S 78.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 14.4S 75.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 14.7S 73.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 15.0S 69.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 14.7S 67.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 14.2S 66.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 82.0E.
29DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 704
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290000Z IS 957 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 290300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR
   
4. 024//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.5S 82.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 704 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WITH AN 8 NM PINHOLE EYE AND VERY COLD (-75 C)
    
19. CLOUD TOPS ENTIRELY ENCIRCLING THE EYE. 10S IS ANALYZED TO HAVE
    
20. RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED FROM 75 KTS 24 HOURS AGO TO 105 KTS NOW.
    
21. HOWEVER, THE STRUCTURE HAS STARTED TO SLIGHTLY DEGRADE FROM 0000Z
    
22. TO 0200Z. THE INTENSITY OF 10S IS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE AS THE SMALL
    
23. SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE ENVIRONMENT.
    
24. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
25. PINHOLE EYE IN ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105
    
26. KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK
    
27. AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
28. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 09S IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
    
29. CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL
    
30. WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED
    
33. ON THE OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
39.    DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
40.    FMEE: T6.0 - 115 KTS
    
41.    FIMP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 290000Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 101 KTS AT 290000Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-MINT: 108 KTS AT 290001Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 100 KTS AT 290000Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
49.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE NEAR-TERM INTENSITY IS FORECAST
    
60. TO BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE RAPID
    
61. INTENSIFICATION AND FORMATION OF A PINHOLE EYE.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 10S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD,
    
64. ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH, THROUGH TAU
    
65. 72. NEAR TAU 72, A SECOND STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST
    
66. OF THE SYSTEM, CAUSING 10S TO TAKE A BRIEF WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN.
    
67. REGARDING INTENSITY, 09S IS FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR TAU 12, THOUGH
    
68. RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PEAK MAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
    
69. NONETHELESS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 24
    
70. WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU
    
71. 24, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, CAUSING 10S TO
    
72. BEGIN WEAKENING. AROUND TAU 72, DRY AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN
    
73. ENTRAINING INTO THE VORTEX FROM THE NORTH, FURTHER WEAKENING THE
    
74. SYSTEM.
    
75. 
    
76. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
    
77. AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 75 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72.
    
78. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS SLIGHTLY DIVERGE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
    
79. FORMATION AND INTERACTION WITH THE SECOND STR. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
    
80. INCREASES TO AROUND 250 AT TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
    
81. PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
82. THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MESOSCALE MODELS
    
83. RANGE FROM SLIGHT WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 12 (HWRF) TO SLIGHT
    
84. INTENSIFICATION (HAFS-A). AFTER TAU 12, MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
    
85. WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC
    
86. INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE HAFS-A WITH OVERALL
    
87. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
88. 
    
89. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
90.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
91.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
92.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
93.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
94. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、刘涛  签发：张玲  2025 年 12 月 29 日 10 时
“格兰特”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 29日08时（北京时）

海  域: 东南印度洋

命  名: “格兰特”，GRANT

中心位置:  南纬13.4度，东经82.4度

强度等级:  强热带气旋

最大风力: 15级，47米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压: 951百帕

参考位置: 距离科科斯群岛偏西方向约1575公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“格兰特”强度由11级加强到15级

预报结论: “格兰特”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年12月29日08时00分）

“海利”在澳大利亚西北部洋面生成

时  间: 29日08时（北京时）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “海利”，HAYLEY

中心位置:  南纬14.8度，东经119.4度

强度等级:  一级热带气旋

最大风力: 9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 989百帕

参考位置: 距离西澳大利亚州布鲁姆西北方向约465公里

变化过程: “海利”于昨日夜间在澳大利亚西北部洋面生成

预报结论: “海利”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图2  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年12月29日08时00分）

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 290644
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 81.5 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/29 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/30 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/12/30 18 UTC: 14.2 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/12/31 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/31 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/02 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85

120H: 2026/01/03 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION OF GRANT HAS
STRENGTHENED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES RANGE FROM 5.5 TO 6. THE
0432Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SYSTEM THAT REMAINS COMPACT IN SIZE WITH
WINDS GREATER THAN 34 KT WITHIN 80 KM OF THE CENTER. THE 0004Z RCM2
SAR IMAGE MEASURES MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 110 AND 115 KT AVERAGED OVER
10 MINUTES. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (AIDT, DPRINT, DMINT) ESTIMATE MAXIMUM
WINDS AROUND 100 KT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF
UNCERTAINTY, THE CMRS ESTIMATES MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS AT 105 KT.

GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL
WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
FROM THURSDAY, A TURN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND A SLOWDOWN OF THE
MOTION ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH IT WEAKENS,
INFLUENCING THE STEERING FLOW AND ON THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SPREAD AMONG MODELS IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT BEYOND THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS (LOW SHEAR, STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE). HOWEVER, THE PEAK INTENSITY
REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO GRANT'S SMALL SIZE. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BECOME
MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO DRY
AIR DISRUPTIONS AND MAKING GRANT WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

觀雲趣

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov ... torm=SH092026_GRANT

跟底層強度相符 過後持續加強