迪戈加西亚东南强热带气旋第6号“杜扎伊”(14S.Dudzai) - MFR:110KT JTWC:125KT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析T3.0/3.0

TPXS11 PGTW 190904
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 19/0830Z
C. 21.22S
D. 61.09E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   19/0632Z  21.00S  61.65E  GPMI
   LINDGREN

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 191302
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 61.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/20 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 32.2 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 85 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/22 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 350 SW: 130 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 215 SW: 100 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS RESUMED IN A SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE NEAR THE CENTRE WITH INCREASED CURVATURE. THE CURVED
CLOUD PATTERN IS IMPROVING, AS SHOWN BY THE GPM MICROWAVE IMAGES AT
0648Z AND GCOM-W IMAGES AT 1010Z. THE RSMC'S SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS
ESTIMATES A T NUMBER OF 3.5, CORRESPONDING TO MAXIMAUM WINDS OF 45 KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK. DUDZAI CONTINUES ITS TRACK
SOUTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE.
IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 300 KM FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND
TONIGHT. TOMORROW, IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING SOUTH THEN
SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TALWEG APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND THE RETREAT OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST. OUR RSMC
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS, AMONG WHICH THERE
IS LITTLE DISPERSION AT PRESENT.

REGARDING INTENSITY, THE DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE FAVOURABLE TO A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION
OVER WATERS THAT ARE STILL FAIRLY WARM. INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE DEPRESSION.

IMPACTS ON REUNION/MAURITIUS :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES DURING MONDAY TO TUESDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T3.0/3.0

TPXS11 PGTW 191206
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 19/1130Z
C. 21.70S
D. 60.89E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT YIELD 3.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   19/0632Z  21.00S  61.65E  GPMI
   BALMER

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WTXS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 019   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 21.7S 60.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 60.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 23.0S 58.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 25.0S 57.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 28.1S 57.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 32.5S 59.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 37 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 43.8S 72.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 60.2E.
19JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS 995 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 191500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
   
4. 019//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.7S 60.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 213 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
    
13. MAURITIUS
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
    
20. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS BEEN
    
21. INTERMITTENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT
    
22. POSITION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ASSESSED CENTER. THE
    
23. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS HAS REVEALED A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH
    
24. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 26-27 C, LOW VERTICAL WIND
    
25. SHEAR (VWS) OF LESS THAN 10 KTS, AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENVELOPING
    
26. THE ENTIRE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN
    
27. PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIALLY
    
28. EXPOSED LLCC ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
    
29. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK
    
30. ESTIMATES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
    
35. DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
39.    DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
40.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
41.    FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS SATCON: 47 KTS AT 190955Z
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 190900Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 191100Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-MINT: 39 KTS AT 190955Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 35 KTS AT 191130Z
    
47. 
    
48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
49.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
50.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
    
52. 
    
53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
54.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
57. 
    
58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
59. 
    
60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
    
64. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AROUND THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE STR LOCATED
    
65. DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. FOLLOWING TAU 24, TC 14S WILL
    
66. CONTINUE TO ROUND THE STR AXIS, AND BEGIN ITS TERMINAL
    
67. SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BETWEEN
    
68. TAU 36 AND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE IN SPEED OF APPROACH
    
69. SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH ASSISTANCE FROM
    
70. AN EQUATORWARD EXTENDING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSING LONGWAVE TROUGH,
    
71. BECOMING COMPLETELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY
    
72. TAU 72. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC DUDZAI IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
    
73. STEADY INTENSITIES BETWEEN 50-55 KTS INTO TAU 48 AS THE ENVIRONMENT
    
74. REMAINS MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED SUPPORT WITH LOW VWS
    
75. BELOW 15 KTS AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. FOLLOWING TAU 36, VWS IS
    
76. FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 15 KTS WHILE SEA SURFACE
    
77. TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DECREASE TO BELOW 26 C DURING THE
    
78. SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION INTO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WEAKENING
    
79. SURFACE INTENSITIES BY TAU 72 AND BECOMING FULLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN
    
80. THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
    
81. 
    
82. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
    
83. GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ALL
    
84. JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS ILLUSTRATING THE EXPECTED ROUNDING OF THE
    
85. STR AXIS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, AND A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
    
86. THEREAFTER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH
    
87. CONFIDENCE, AND ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE MULTI-MODEL TRACK
    
88. CONSENSUS. REGARDING INTENSITY, ALL JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS
    
89. MEMBERS CHARACTERIZE STEADY INTENSITIES BETWEEN 50-55 KTS INTO TAU
    
90. 48, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE JTWC INTENSITY
    
91. FORECAST WAS PLACED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT
    
92. CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND COAMPS-TC SOLUTIONS,
    
93. LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
    
94. 
    
95. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
96.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
97.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
98. NNNN

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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T3.0/3.0

TPXS11 PGTW 191458
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 19/1430Z
C. 21.82S
D. 60.42E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED 17NM FROM
LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T3.0/3.0

TPXS11 PGTW 191751
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 19/1730Z
C. 21.96S
D. 59.71E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED 11NM FROM
LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 191837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 59.8 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 270 SW: 155 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2026/01/22 06 UTC: 41.0 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 270
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUITE FLUCTUATING
WITH FAIRLY COLD CONVECTIVE PEAKS DURING THE FIRST THREE HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY LESS ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION AND WITH LESS CURVATURE. THE CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION
SHOWS LESS CURVATURE, GIVING A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF T DOWN 3.0, IN LINE
WITH OTHER GUIDANCES, BUT A CI STILL FAIRLY HIGH AT 3.5 DUE TO
INERTIA. NO MICROWAVE DATA AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS RSMC
TO AID LOCATION, EXCEPT FOR METOP-01 AT 1727UTC, BUT INFRARED IMAGES
SHOW THE CLEARING OF THE CENTRE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION, AN
ACCELERATED SHIFT OF THE CENTRE OF DUDZAI. THE PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH AT
1727UTC ALLOWS US TO NOTE MAXIMUM WINDS OF 43KT, OR 49KT
RECALIBRATED. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS
VALIDATED BY ASCAT VALUES CLOSE TO 50KT, AND DUDZAI REMAINS AT THE
STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK: DUDZAI CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWEST TRACK ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. ON THIS
TRACK, DUDZAI WILL PASS CLOSEST TO MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLANDS
DURING THE NIGHT, APPROXIMATELY 300 KM SOUTH-EAST OF THEM. ON TUESDAY
DURING THE DAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTH-EAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TALWEG APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
THE RETREAT OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST. ALL MODELS VALIDATE THIS
RSMC FORECAST WITH A DISPERSION THAT IS CURRENTLY LOW.

REGARDING INTENSITY, THE DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE FAVOURABLE TO A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION
OVER WATERS THAT ARE STILL FAIRLY WARM. HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS SEEMS LESS AND LESS LIKELY. FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
WHILE RETAINING THE INTENSITY OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE
MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE DEPRESSION.

IMPACTS ON REUNION/MAURITIUS :
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.=

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析降至T2.5/3.0

TPXS11 PGTW 192055
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 19/2030Z
C. 22.33S
D. 59.14E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT