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JTWC/01W/#09/01-16 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 12.8N 125.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 294 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 01W (NOKAEN) CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE, WITH DEEP,
WIDE-SPREAD CONVECTION COMPLETELY OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, WITH THE VORTEX BEGINNING TO
VERTICALLY ALIGN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 161548Z OCEANSAT-3 OSCAT PASS AND VISIBLE
FEATURES IN THE ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45
KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED OSCAT PASS,
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH HAS
ALLOWED FOR THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 161548Z OCEANSAT-3 OSCAT PASS
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 161740Z
CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 161730Z
CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 161730Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 43 KTS AT 161654Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 48 KTS AT 161830Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 01W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE STR. A COMPETING
STEERING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL SLOW THE FORWARD
MOTION DURING THIS TURN. BEYOND TAU 72, THE TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. AS THE PRIMARY STR WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD
AROUND TAU 96, TS 01W IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD, STEERED BY
THE REMNANT RIDGE. REGARDING INTENSITY, TS 01W IS FORECAST TO REACH
A PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 50 KTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS IT TAKES
ADVANTAGE OF THE CURRENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU
24, INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE A SLOW AND STEADY
WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS NOW DEPICT A SMOOTH
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH ONLY JGSM SHOWING AN ABRUPT SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN WITHIN 36-48 HOURS. EXCLUDING JGSM, THE CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD AMONG MEMBERS HAS DECREASED TO 40 NM AT TAU 72, INDICATING
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING A PEAK BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24, FOLLOWED
BY SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: 红豆棒冰冰
发表于 2026-1-17 04:45
发表于 2026-1-17 05:53
