西澳北部近海三级强热带气旋“米切尔”(21U/20S.Mitchell) - 横穿澳大利亚北部，西行出海发展 - BoM:75KT JTWC:85KT

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-2-7 15:56

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-2-8 18:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 117.6E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
   SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 117.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.4S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.5S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.8S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 24.5S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.0S 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 117.2E. 07FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.4S 117.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 78 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH STRONG AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION,
PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, AND A TRANSIENT EYE
FEATURE. A 070532Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, APPROXIMATELY 31NM IN DIAMETER,
WITH STRONG CONVECTION CREATING AN EYEWALL AROUND APPROXIMATELY
THREE QUARTERS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH THE WEAKEST
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE 36GHZ
CHANNEL DEPICTS A COMPACT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE DISPLACED ABOUT 12NM
EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL EYE, CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE 15-20 KNOT
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS ESTIMATED BY CIMSS. THE
MICROWAVE DEPICTION, PARTICULARLY IN THE 36GHZ BAND, CORROBORATES THE
ABOM RADAR IMAGERY OUT OF PORT HEDLAND, WHICH SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
RADAR EYE, STRONGEST ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 36GHZ CENTER AND
THE RADAR EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE AND MAY BE CONSERVATIVE AS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE TRENDING UPWARD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AS OF 0730Z IS
ESTIMATED AT 70-75 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY
FAVORABLE, WITH LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SSTS WITH HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT (OHC).
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
APRF: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 78 KTS AT 070536Z
CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 070630Z
CIMSS AIDT: 66 KTS AT 070630Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 71 KTS AT 070532Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 70 KTS AT 070600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (MITCHELL) IS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER STR
OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL LANDFALL AT TAU 24 NEAR ONSLOW, AUSTRALIA. BY
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO TRAVERSE THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
EXMOUTH GULF, OR POTENTIALLY OVER THE GULF ITSELF, AS IT APPROACHES
THE RIDGE AXIS AND DECELERATES. BY TAU 48, TC 20S WILL HAVE ROUNDED
THE RIDGE AND WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY,
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ENHANCE
UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THESE FACTORS, SUPPORTED BY WARM SSTS
AND HIGH OHC, WILL RESULT IN FURTHER RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90-95 KNOTS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS TC 20S TRANSITING THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE EXMOUTH GULF WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING. HOWEVER,
DIVERGENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A TRACK DOWN THE CENTER OF THE
GULF. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE HIGH-OHC WATERS OF THE GULF, IT
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A HIGH INTENSITY UNTIL COMPLETING LANDFALL. ONCE
INLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND
TERRAIN INTERACTION, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AFTER TAU 48.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA BY TAU 72.
MODEL DISCUSSION: ALL MEMBERS OF THE TRACK CONSENSUS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIER TRACKING THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE THROUGH TAU 120, WHERE IT
APPROACHES GERALDTON. THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN, AS WELL AS THE
AI CONSENSUS, SUPPORT THE DETERMINISTIC PACKAGE, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE,
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS IN THE POSITIONING OF THE STR TO THE EAST COULD
RESULT IN A TRACK THAT REMAINS OVER THE EXMOUTH GULF, AND THE SYSTEM
MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE GULF. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
EXHIBITS A FAIRLY LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. ON THE LOWER-END OF
THE GUIDANCE, THE HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC INDICATE A PEAK INTENSITY OF
BETWEEN 65-70 KNOTS, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A PROJECTED EARLIER
LANDFALL. THE HWRF AND SHIPS-GFS INDICATE A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN
80-85 KNOTS. FINALLY, THE RIPA, RIDE, RICN AND CHR4 RI ALGORITHMS
HAVE ALL BEEN TRIPPED, SUPPORTING A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 90-105
KNOTS. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE JTWC FORECAST IS
HEDGED TOWARD THE RIPA AND CHR4 RI GUIDANCE THROUGH LANDFALL, AND THE
CONSENSUS MEAN POST-LANDFALL, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

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pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-7 16:50

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：郝淑会、张增海  签发：王海平  2026 年 02 月 07 日 18 时
“米切尔”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 2月7日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “米切尔”，MITCHELL

中心位置: 南纬19.4度，东经117.5度

强度等级: 热带气旋（2级）

最大风力: 11级，30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 974百帕

参考位置: 距离西澳大利亚州卡拉萨东北方向约165公里

变化过程: 过去18小时，“米切尔”由8级加强为11级

预报结论: “米切尔”将以每小时约15-20公里的速度向西偏南方向沿着西澳大利亚皮尔巴拉海岸平行移动，强度还将继续加强，并于2月8日在澳大利亚西北部昂斯洛附近地区登陆，尔后转向南行并逐渐减弱。受其影响，澳大利亚西北部近海及沿岸地区将出现9-11级大风，阵风可达12级以上；“米切尔”登陆后内陆西部地区将有7-9级大风。气旋中心经过的沿岸及内陆地区将出现大范围暴雨至大暴雨，极易引发山洪和暴洪。

图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月7日14时00分）

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-7 17:45

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-7 18:00 编辑

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Karratha area are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 5:55 pm WST on Saturday 7 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is forecast to strengthen to a severe category 3 cyclone as it passes just north of Karratha tonight and then along the west Pilbara coast on Sunday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Port Hedland to Coral Bay, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow, and Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara to include Pannawonica.

Watch Zone
Coral Bay to Carnarvon and adjacent inland areas.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 5:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 19.6 degrees South 117.2 degrees East, estimated to be 125 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and 165 kilometres west northwest of Port Hedland.

Movement: west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is intensifying north northeast of Karratha and is forecast to reach category 3 this evening, with further intensification possible overnight.

Mitchell is forecast to move to the southwest closer to the Pilbara coast this evening and pass north of Karratha tonight, and then track close to the west Pilbara coast during Sunday. Late on Sunday it is forecast to move over land near Onslow, before taking a more southerly track over land during Monday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 220 km/h are possible over the coastal parts of the Pilbara around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham tonight especially if Mitchell moves closer than forecast, extending to Onslow during Sunday as the destructive core of Mitchell moves along the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham from this evening, extending west towards Onslow during Sunday and possibly Exmouth Sunday night.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible along the coastal parts between Port Hedland and Dampier, extending west to Onslow and Exmouth and through inland parts of the western Pilbara, including Pannawonica.

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely from later today with this risk persisting through the weekend for the central and west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may develop around the central Pilbara coast west of Wickham overnight and Sunday morning.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING in the Karratha region early Sunday morning, and then in the Onslow region on the Sunday afternoon.

Elsewhere on the west Pilbara coast including Exmouth, tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Saturday and Sunday which may produce FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Saturday 07 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 pm February 7	2	19.6S	117.2E	20
+6hr	11 pm February 7	3	20.0S	116.8E	40
+12hr	5 am February 8	3	20.5S	116.2E	60
+18hr	11 am February 8	3	21.1S	115.5E	70
+24hr	5 pm February 8	3	21.7S	115.0E	80
+36hr	5 am February 9	1	23.0S	114.3E	100
+48hr	5 pm February 9	tropical low	24.7S	114.4E	130
+60hr	5 am February 10	tropical low	26.3S	115.8E	160
+72hr	5 pm February 10	tropical low	27.4S	118.2E	200

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-2-7 19:46

JTWC 09Z分析维持T4.0

TPXS11 PGTW 070842
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL)
B. 07/0830Z
C. 19.63S
D. 117.29E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. WELL-DEFINED CDO OF 180NM IN
DIAMETER YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET YIELDS A 3.5. PT YIELDS A 4.0. DBO
PT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY
TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/0532Z 19.45S 117.72E AMS2
BRYANT

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-7 20:50

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-7 21:10 编辑

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1309 UTC 07/02/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 20.0S
Longitude: 116.7E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (238 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (18 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots (185 km/h)
Central Pressure: 965 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC)       : degrees    :    nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  07/1800: 20.4S 116.3E:    025 (050):  080  (150):  956
+12:  08/0000: 20.8S 115.9E:    035 (070):  085  (155):  952
+18:  08/0600: 21.4S 115.3E:    040 (080):  085  (155):  952
+24:  08/1200: 22.0S 114.8E:    045 (080):  065  (120):  968
+36:  09/0000: 23.4S 114.3E:    060 (105):  040  (075):  987
+48:  09/1200: 25.1S 114.7E:    075 (135):  030  (055):  993
+60:  10/0000: 26.7S 116.4E:    090 (165):  030  (050):  995
+72:  10/1200: 27.3S 118.7E:    105 (195):  025  (045):  996
+96:  11/1200:          :             :          :
+120: 12/1200:          :             :          :
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell has intensified during the past 6 hours. The
satellite signature has shown marginally improved banding with a ragged,
elongated eye again emerging on recent imagery. The radar signature has shown
improved wrapping and tightening of the deep convection.

Dvorak Analysis is based on an eye pattern with LG surround. 0.5 was subtracted
for a ragged, elongated eye yielding a DT of 4.5. MET is 4.5 based on a 24 hour
D+ trend, with no PAT adjustment. Final T and CI 4.5. Objective guidance
(1-minute mean) at 1120 UTC; ADT 77 kn, AiDT 77 kn, DPRINT 66 kn, and DMINT(at
1009 UTC) 66 kn and SATCON (0810) 81 kn. Intensity is set at 70 knots,
consistent with subjective (and objective) Dvorak and observations at Legendre
Island to the near south of the centre which recorded a peak 10-minute average
wind of 69 knots in the periphery of the southern eyewall.

CIMSS upper wind analysis suggests that deep layer wind shear is increasing
over the system, and is now estimated at 20-25 knots. Upper easterlies north of
the subtropical jet have been strengthening and encroaching southward, as
suggested in NWP guidance, although there are some differences in how strong
this shear is forecast to become. Although the system does not exhibit a
sheared appearance on satellite imagery, recent MIMIC precipitable water
imagery depicts some dry air wrapping around to the near north of the centre.
Upper divergence remains favourable on the southern side of the system
associated with persistent upper poleward outflow. SSTs remain favourable along
track at 28-29C. Although further intensification is forecast based on the
trend over the previous 6 hours and uncertainty in shear strength, it is
possible the system is currently near peak intensity, as suggested by available
ensemble guidance.

Mitchell is currently being steered southwest around the periphery of a
mid-level ridge to the southeast, which will turn the track more to the south
on Monday when the system is likely to be over land. Numerical guidance shows
good consistency in the forecast track over the next 24-36 hours. Once Mitchell
moves over land it will weaken and is forecast to weaken below tropical cyclone
strength during Monday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/1930 UTC.

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Karratha area are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 8:00 pm WST on Saturday 7 February 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 3, is moving southwest to the north of Karratha.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Whim Creek to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Onslow, and Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara to include Pannawonica.

Watch Zone
Coral Bay to Carnarvon and adjacent inland areas.

Cancelled Zone
East of Whim Creek to Port Hedland, including Port Hedland.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 130 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 185 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.0 degrees South 116.7 degrees East, estimated to be 85 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and 245 kilometres northeast of Onslow.

Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is intensifying north of Karratha and is at category 3 strength.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is forecast to move to the southwest closer to the Pilbara coast overnight, and then track close to the west Pilbara coast during Sunday. Late on Sunday it is forecast to move over land near Onslow, before taking a more southerly track over land during Monday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 220 km/h are possible over the coastal parts of the Pilbara around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham tonight especially if Mitchell moves closer than forecast, extending to Onslow during Sunday as the destructive core of Mitchell moves along the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham tonight, extending west towards Onslow during Sunday and possibly Exmouth Sunday night.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible along the coastal parts between Whim Creek and Dampier, extending west to Onslow and Exmouth and through inland parts of the western Pilbara, including Pannawonica.

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely from later today with this risk persisting through the weekend for the central and west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may develop around the central Pilbara coast west of Wickham overnight and Sunday morning.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING in the Karratha region early Sunday morning, and then in the Onslow region on the Sunday afternoon.

Elsewhere on the west Pilbara coast including Exmouth, tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Saturday and Sunday which may produce FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Saturday 07 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm February 7	3	20.0S	116.7E	30
+6hr	2 am February 8	3	20.4S	116.3E	50
+12hr	8 am February 8	3	20.8S	115.9E	70
+18hr	2 pm February 8	3	21.4S	115.3E	80
+24hr	8 pm February 8	3	22.0S	114.8E	80
+36hr	8 am February 9	1	23.4S	114.3E	105
+48hr	8 pm February 9	tropical low	25.1S	114.7E	135
+60hr	8 am February 10	tropical low	26.7S	116.4E	165
+72hr	8 pm February 10	tropical low	27.3S	118.7E	195

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-2-7 21:17

JTWC 12Z分析升至T4.5

TPXS11 PGTW 071235
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL)
B. 07/1130Z
C. 20.10S
D. 116.63E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT OF
4.5. MET YIELDS 3.5 AND PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO DT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE
MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/0757Z 19.70S 117.37E GPMI
LINDGREN

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-7 21:22

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Karratha to Onslow areas, including Mardie, are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 9:12 pm WST on Saturday 7 February 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 3, is moving southwest to the north of Karratha.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Whim Creek to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Onslow, and Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara to include Pannawonica.

Watch Zone
Coral Bay to Carnarvon and adjacent inland areas.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 9:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 130 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 185 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.0 degrees South 116.6 degrees East, estimated to be 90 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and 240 kilometres northeast of Onslow.

Movement: west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is north of Karratha and is at category 3 strength.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is forecast to move to the southwest closer to the Pilbara coast overnight, and then track close to the west Pilbara coast during Sunday. Late on Sunday it is forecast to move over land near Onslow, before taking a more southerly track over land during Monday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 220 km/h are possible over the coastal parts of the Pilbara around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham tonight especially if Mitchell moves closer than forecast, extending to Onslow during Sunday as the destructive core of Mitchell moves along the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast around Karratha, Dampier and Wickham tonight, extending west towards Onslow during Sunday and possibly Exmouth Sunday night.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible along the coastal parts between Whim Creek and Dampier, extending west to Onslow and Exmouth and through inland parts of the western Pilbara, including Pannawonica.

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely from later today with this risk persisting through the weekend for the central and west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may develop around the central Pilbara coast west of Wickham overnight and Sunday morning.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING in the Karratha region early Sunday morning, and then in the Onslow region on the Sunday afternoon.

Elsewhere on the west Pilbara coast including Exmouth, tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Saturday and Sunday which may produce FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm AWST Saturday 07 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	9 pm February 7	3	20.0S	116.6E	30
+6hr	3 am February 8	3	20.3S	116.2E	50
+12hr	9 am February 8	3	20.9S	115.7E	70
+18hr	3 pm February 8	3	21.5S	115.2E	80
+24hr	9 pm February 8	2	22.1S	114.7E	80
+36hr	9 am February 9	1	23.6S	114.3E	110
+48hr	9 pm February 9	tropical low	25.3S	114.8E	140
+60hr	9 am February 10	tropical low	26.8S	116.6E	165
+72hr	9 pm February 10	tropical low	27.3S	118.9E	195

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-7 22:10

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Karratha to Onslow areas, including Mardie, are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued at 10:02 pm WST on Saturday 7 February 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 3, is moving southwest to the north of Karratha.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Whim Creek to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Onslow, and Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara to include Pannawonica.

Watch Zone
Coral Bay to Carnarvon and adjacent inland areas.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 10:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 130 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 185 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.0 degrees South 116.5 degrees East, estimated to be 230 kilometres northeast of Onslow and 85 kilometres north northwest of Karratha.

Movement: west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is north of Karratha and is at category 3 strength.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is forecast to move to the southwest closer to the Pilbara coast overnight, and then track close to the west Pilbara coast during Sunday. Late on Sunday it is forecast to move over land near Onslow, before taking a more southerly track over land during Monday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 220 km/h are possible over the coastal parts of the Pilbara around Karratha, Dampier, and Wickham tonight especially if Mitchell moves closer than forecast, extending to Onslow during Sunday as the destructive core of Mitchell moves along the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast around Karratha, Dampier, and Wickham tonight, extending west towards Onslow during Sunday and possibly Exmouth Sunday night.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring along coastal areas between Whim Creek and Dampier, extending west to Mardie and possibly Pannawonica later tonight. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend west to Onslow, Exmouth, and inland parts of the western Pilbara on Sunday.

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely from later today with this risk persisting through the weekend for the central and west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may develop around the central Pilbara coast west of Wickham overnight and Sunday morning.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING in the Karratha region early Sunday morning, and then in the Onslow region on the Sunday afternoon.

Elsewhere on the west Pilbara coast including Exmouth, tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Saturday and Sunday which may produce FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm AWST Saturday 07 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 pm February 7	3	20.0S	116.5E	30
+6hr	4 am February 8	3	20.4S	116.1E	50
+12hr	10 am February 8	3	21.0S	115.6E	70
+18hr	4 pm February 8	3	21.6S	115.1E	75
+24hr	10 pm February 8	2	22.2S	114.7E	75
+36hr	10 am February 9	1	23.7S	114.3E	95
+48hr	10 pm February 9	tropical low	25.4S	114.9E	120
+60hr	10 am February 10	tropical low	26.8S	116.8E	140
+72hr	10 pm February 10	tropical low	27.3S	119.0E	150

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-7 22:36

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-7 23:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 116.7E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
   SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 116.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.0S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.1S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.7S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 25.5S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.1S 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 116.4E. 07FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 973 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING
NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.0S 116.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 201 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (MITCHELL) HAS CONTINUED A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) TREND AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF AUSTRALIA NORTH OF DAMPIER. ANALYSIS OF ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS
STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, IT HAS STRUGGLED TO
MANIFEST A PERSISTENT EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS OBSCURED BY A CONSOLIDATED CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). HOWEVER, MICROWAVE DATA, SUCH AS THE 071009Z
WSF-M SUITE, REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE BENEATH THE CDO.
THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE IS ASYMMETRIC, WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY
REFLECTING AN EROSION IN THE EASTERN, UPSHEAR SECTOR. ANIMATED RADAR
DATA FROM KARRATHA STATION DEPICTS THE EYE WITH HIGH FIDELITY,
TRANSITING NORTH OF DAMPIER AS OF 1200Z. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
LEGENDRE ISLAND RECORDED A PEAK WIND OF 69G88KTS AT 1051Z WITH A
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) OF 978.2MB WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
EYEWALL. WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK AND PRESSURES ARE RISING AT
LEGENDRE ISLAND AS THE CORE PASSES TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE;
HOWEVER, MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR HAS INCREASED BASED ON BOTH MODEL
AND CIMSS ANALYSES, HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT IR EYE
FEATURE. OTHERWISE, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND ANOMALOUSLY
WARM SSTS WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) SUPPORT FURTHER MARGINAL
INTENSIFICATION.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
APRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 81 KTS AT 070810Z
CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 071200Z
CIMSS AIDT: 77 KTS AT 071130Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 69 KTS AT 071009Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 77 KTS AT 071200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY LOWER-LEVEL AIR BEGINNING TO INTRUDE ALONG
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE INNER-CORE.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 20S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AT A
STEADY 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
SIDE OF A LARGE STR POSITIONED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE THIS TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT FORWARD
SPEED WILL DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. LANDFALL IS
FORECAST ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE EXMOUTH GULF, SOUTHWEST
OF ONSLOW AROUND TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL
SOUTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE, MOVING DOWN THE EASTERN MARGIN OF THE
EXMOUTH GULF. BY TAU 36, TC 20S WILL REACH THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, ACCELERATING FURTHER INLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT TRACK CALLS
FOR TC 20S TO SKIRT THE EASTERN COAST OF THE EXMOUTH GULF AFTER TAU
24; HOWEVER, BASED ON A CONTINUED WESTWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGE, THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL THE CENTER WILL TRAVERSE THE
CENTER OR WESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF REMAINING OVER WATER FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME. REGARDING INTENSITY, DESPITE MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OR
SLIGHTLY INCREASE INTENSITY DURING ITS SHORT REMAINING TIME OVER
WATER. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER TC 20S CAN RESIST DISRUPTION LONG
ENOUGH TO LEVERAGE THIS IMPROVED OUTFLOW. THE FORECAST SAYS YES; IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT NATURE HAS TO SAY. ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES
LANDFALL AND CURVES INLAND, IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS, INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, DISSIPATING NO
LATER THAN TAU 72.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) GUIDANCE HAS
STEADILY SHIFTED WESTWARD; CONSEQUENTLY, THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE EXMOUTH GULF. ALL MEMBERS OF THE MULTI-
MODEL PACKAGE ARE NOW CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE GULF, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GEFS AND NAVGEM. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. A WESTWARD CROSS-TRACK SHIFT TOWARD LEARMONTH REMAINS A
VIABLE ALTERNATE SCENARIO. INTENSITY GUIDANCE EXHIBITS LOWER
CONVICTION, WITH MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED
PEAK INTENSITY. THE ONLY AIDS INDICATING ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
ARE SHIPS (NAVGEM/GFS), WHICH PROJECT A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 85 KNOTS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECAST IS ALIGNED WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-7 23:15

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Karratha to Onslow areas, including Mardie, are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 20
Issued at 11:07 pm WST on Saturday 7 February 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 3, is moving southwest to the north of Dampier.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Whim Creek to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Onslow, and Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara to include Pannawonica.

Watch Zone
Coral Bay to Carnarvon and adjacent inland areas.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 11:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 130 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 185 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.1 degrees South 116.4 degrees East, estimated to be 220 kilometres northeast of Onslow and 85 kilometres north northwest of Karratha.

Movement: west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is north of Dampier and is at category 3 strength.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is forecast to move to the southwest closer to the Pilbara coast overnight, and then track close to the west Pilbara coast during Sunday. Late on Sunday it is forecast to move over land near Onslow, before taking a more southerly track over land during Monday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 205 km/h are possible over the coastal parts of the Pilbara around Karratha, Dampier, and Wickham tonight especially if Mitchell moves closer than forecast, extending west to Onslow during Sunday as the destructive core of Mitchell moves along the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast around Karratha, Dampier, and Wickham tonight, extending west towards Onslow during Sunday and possibly Exmouth Sunday night.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring along coastal areas between Whim Creek and Dampier, extending west to Mardie and possibly Pannawonica later tonight. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend west to Onslow, Exmouth, and inland parts of the western Pilbara on Sunday.

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely overnight with this risk persisting through the weekend for the central and west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may develop around the central Pilbara coast west of Wickham overnight and Sunday morning.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING in the Karratha region early Sunday morning, and then in the Onslow region on the Sunday afternoon.

Elsewhere on the west Pilbara coast including Exmouth, tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Saturday and Sunday which may produce FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am AWST Sunday 08 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 pm February 7	3	20.1S	116.4E	30
+6hr	5 am February 8	3	20.5S	116.1E	50
+12hr	11 am February 8	3	21.1S	115.6E	70
+18hr	5 pm February 8	3	21.7S	115.0E	75
+24hr	11 pm February 8	2	22.3S	114.7E	75
+36hr	11 am February 9	1	23.8S	114.3E	100
+48hr	11 pm February 9	tropical low	25.5S	115.1E	125
+60hr	11 am February 10	tropical low	26.9S	117.0E	135
+72hr	11 pm February 10	tropical low	27.3S	119.3E	145

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西澳北部近海三级强热带气旋“米切尔”(21U/20S.Mitchell) - 横穿澳大利亚北部，西行出海发展 - BoM:75KT JTWC:85KT

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