莫桑比克海峡中等热带风暴第10号“盖扎尼”(21S.Gezani) - 西行近岸爆发穿越马达加斯加中部，进入莫峡再度增强，尔后或在莫峡南部回旋 - MAX MFR:100KT JTWC:110KT

Atsani艾莎尼 · 发表于 2026-2-11 13:42

03z的底层，被磨完了

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-11 14:15

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-11 16:00 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 110646
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/10/20252026
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 46.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 10

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/11 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/12 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 0

36H: 2026/02/12 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

48H: 2026/02/13 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 0

60H: 2026/02/13 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 0

72H: 2026/02/14 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/15 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 285 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

120H: 2026/02/16 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 400 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 220 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
GEZANI CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION OVER MADAGASCAR TOWARDS THE WEST.
ITS PATH OVER LAND HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED IT, AS SHOWN BY
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE DMSP F-17 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM
0308UTC. THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED AND THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS
DETERIORATED TO TAKE ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN EMBEDDED CENTER. A
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE IS NOT RELEVANT ON LAND AND WIND INTENSITY
IS MAINLY ESTIMATED FROM MODEL FIELDS. THE MAXIMUM AVERAGE WIND
INTENSITY VALUE IS THEREFORE 30 KT AND GEZANI IS CLASSIFIED AS A
DEPRESSION OVERLAND.

REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST, THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT
CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH MADAGASCAR FROM EAST TO WEST
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, EMERGING IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
APPROXIMATELY 100KM NORTH OF MORONDAVA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY
FRIDAY MORNING, GEZANI WILL BE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE CMRS
TRAJECTORY IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE MODELS
AND DIFFERES FROM THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL, WHICH TAKES A ZONAL
TRACK THAT IS ISOLATED NEAR TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR UNCERTAINTY
CONE. ON FRIDAY, GEZANI CHANGES ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, THEN
SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE RETREAT
OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL. WITH THE ARRIVAL ON SATURDAY OF A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM SOUTH AFRICA, GEZANI WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY FROM
SATURDAY ONWARDS REGARDING THIS TROUGH AND THE DEGREE OF CURVATURE OF
THE TRACK. AT THIS STAGE, THE CMRS TRACK IS BASED ON THE IA ENSEMBLE
MODELS AND THE AMERICAN GFS MODEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN OVER
LAND. WHEN THE SYSTEM RETURNS OVER WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, IT SHOULD RETURN TO CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR A NEW GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING IT TO REACH
THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY MORNING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEN UNCERTAIN FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, DEPENDING MAINLY ON THE MORE OR LESS
SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND OF MOZAMBIQUE. DEEP SHEAR COULD
BECOME MODERATE FROM SATURDAY EVENING IN THE REGION, LIMITING
GEZANI'S POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION AFTER THAT DATE.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOAMASINA PROVINCE):
- THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL NEAR TOAMASINA AROUND 16 UTC ON TUESDAY.
- HEAVY RAINS ARE NOW WEAKENING, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE STILL OCCURRING
LOCALLY IN THE SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE.
- CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MADAGASCAR (NORTH OF THE PROVINCE OF ANTANANARIVO, SOUTH OF THE
PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA):
- HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY, 100-200 MM IN 24 HOURS LOCALLY ALONG THE
TRAJECTORY IN THE SOUTHERN PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
PROVINCE OF ANTANANARIVO.
- POSSIBLE GUSTS OF WIND ON WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAHAJANGA PROVINCE AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
TOLIARA PROVINCE.
- GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE (INHAMBANE PROVINCE): AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 100
MM IN 24 HOURS, STORM-FORCE WINDS, AND HIGH SEA WITH WAVES REACHING
UP TO 9 M.

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-11 17:00

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：郝淑会、曹越男  签发：张玲  2026 年 02 月 11 日 18 时
“盖扎尼”12日凌晨将移入莫桑比克海峡东部海面
未来一周将给莫桑比克海峡附近带来较明显的风雨天气

时  间: 2月11日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “盖扎尼”，GEZANI

中心位置: 南纬18.3度，东经46.2度

强度等级: 热带低压

最大风力: 7级，15米/秒，相当于我国的热带低压级

中心气压: 1004百帕

参考位置: “盖扎尼”位于马达加斯加塔那那利佛省境内

变化过程: “盖扎尼”登陆马达加斯加后强度持续减弱，由15级减弱为7级。

预报结论: “盖扎尼”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，将于12日凌晨移入莫桑比克海峡东部海面，以后将逐渐向莫桑比克海峡西部海面靠近，强度将再次明显加强，不完全排除在莫桑比克海峡西部加强为强热带气旋的可能，13日夜间前后将在莫桑比克东南部近海海面逐渐转向偏南方向移动。

受其影响， 11日晚上到12日晚上，马达加斯加东北部和马达加斯加中部的西侧沿海的部分地区仍将有大雨，局部地区有暴雨，马达加斯加中部的西侧近海和沿海以及莫桑比克海峡将出现7-9级大风，“盖扎尼”中心经过的附近海域风力可达10-11级，阵风 12-13级。未来一周“盖扎尼”将给莫桑比克海峡附近带来较明显的风雨天气。

图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月11日14时00分）

gfp_cold · 发表于 2026-2-11 17:00

pocketbox 发表于 2026-2-11 14:15
WTIO30 FMEE 110646
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING ( ...

老师您好，请问这个报文数据是从哪里查看的呢？

gfp_cold · 发表于 2026-2-11 17:04

gfp_cold 发表于 2026-2-11 17:00
老师您好，请问这个报文数据是从哪里查看的呢？

感谢老师，还想问一下强度图和卫星图也是从这个网站链接上看嘛？

gfp_cold · 发表于 2026-2-11 17:19

gfp_cold 发表于 2026-2-11 17:04
感谢老师，还想问一下强度图和卫星图也是从这个网站链接上看嘛？

好的，感谢老师~
又学到了~
祝老师新年快乐~

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-11 20:31

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-11 21:45 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 111331
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/10/20252026
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 44.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/12 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/12 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0

36H: 2026/02/13 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

48H: 2026/02/13 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/14 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 20 NW: 30

72H: 2026/02/14 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/15 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 215 SW: 425 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2026/02/16 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 545 SW: 535 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 30

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
GEZANI CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION OVER MADAGASCAR TOWARDS THE WEST.
ITS PATH OVER LAND HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED IT. HOWEVER, THE GPM
IMAGE FROM 1132 UTC SHOWS A CONVECTIVE REGAIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE DEPRESSION. A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE IS NOT
RELEVANT OVER LAND, AND WIND INTENSITY IS MAINLY ESTIMATED FROM MODEL
DATA. THE MAXIMUM AVERAGE WIND INTENSITY VALUE IS THEREFORE 25 KT,
AND GEZANI REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A DEPRESSION OVERLAND.

REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST, THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT
CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM IS FINISHING CROSSING THROUGH MADAGASCAR FROM EAST TO WEST
AND WILL EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ABOUT 100KM NORTH OF
MORONDAVA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY FRIDAY MORNING, GEZANI WILL BE
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST CMRS TRACK IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE MODELS AND NOW SUGGESTS A LANDFALL ON THE
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE EUROPEAN MODEL, WHICH SUGGESTS A ZONAL
TRACK, REMAINS ISOLATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR UNCERTAINTY CONE. ON
FRIDAY, GEZANI CHANGES ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTH ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE PULL BACK OF THE
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL. WITH THE ARRIVAL ON SATURDAY OF A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM SOUTH AFRICA, GEZANI WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS
REGARDING THIS TROUGH AND THE DEGREE OF CURVATURE OF THE TRAJECTORY
DUE TO THE PASSAGE BEHIND THE TROUGH. AT THIS STAGE, THE CMRS
TRAJECTORY IS BASED ON THE IA ENSEMBLE MODELS AND THE AMERICAN GFS
MODEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL NOW INTENSIFY OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK SHEAR IN THE
REGION FROM NOW UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD ALLOW IT TO REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
THEN UNCERTAIN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, DEPENDING MAINLY ON THE
MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND OF MOZAMBIQUE.
DEEP SHEAR COULD BECOME MODERATE FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS IN THE REGION,
LIMITING GEZANI'S POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE SOUTH OF THE
CHANNEL.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOAMASINA AND ANTANANARIVO PROVINCES):
- IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONTINUING THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MADAGASCAR (SOUTH OF MAHAJANGA PROVINCE, NORTH OF TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING, 100-200 MM IN 24 HOURS LOCALLY 300 MM
ALONG THE TRACK IN THE SOUTH OF MAHAJANGA PROVINCE AND THE NORTHWEST
OF ANTANANARIVO PROVINCE.
- POSSIBLE GUSTS OF WIND ON WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAHAJANGA PROVINCE AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
TOLIARA PROVINCE.
- GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO THURSDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE (INHAMBANE PROVINCE): DURING THE NIGHT FROM FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY, HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 100-200 MM IN
24 HOURS. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE, AND HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY SEAS WITH AVERAGE WAVES AROUND 9 M.

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-11 21:50

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-11 23:00 编辑

WTXS32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 18.9S 44.7E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 44.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.5S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.2S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.0S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.0S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.0S 36.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 26.1S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.2S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 44.1E.
11FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159
NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111200Z IS 1009 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

WDXS32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.9S 44.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 159 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: XX FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY
ORGANIZED AND VERTICALLY TILTED TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (GEZANI)
CURRENTLY OVER LAND, AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN COASTLINE OF
MADAGASCAR. THE MID-LEVEL TURNING CAN BE OBSERVED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AS THE SYSTEM IS
A COUPLE HOURS AWAY FROM RE-EMERGING OVER WARM WATERS OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE STR CURRENTLY
CENTERED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 111127Z GPM GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTING
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, WHILE THE 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS, ANTANANARIVO AIRPORT SURFACE BASED OBSERVATIONS
REPORTING PEAK WIND SPEEDS OF 23 KTS AT 110300Z AND 110822Z OCEANSAT-3
PASS SHOWING 10-15 KTS MAXIMUM WINDS OVER WATER TO THE WEST OF THE
LLCC.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
SOUTH
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 111127Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 111200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: OVER LAND
OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC GEZANI IS ANALYZED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM AWAY
FROM THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND IS ON A TRAJECTORY FOR
IMMINENT RE-EMERGENCE OVER VERY WARM (30-31 C) WATERS OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. WHILE TRAVERSING THE ISLAND, SIGNIFICANT
OROGRAPHIC INTERACTION AND INCREASED SURFACE FRICTION RESULTED IN
RAPID WEAKENING DOWN TO CURRENT ESTIMATE OF 25 KTS. WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, TC 21S WILL COMMENCE THE REORGANIZATION PHASE. UPON
ENCOUNTERING A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL REGIME OF HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT, A PERIOD OF STEADY RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED. TC GEZANI WILL THEREFORE REACH 75-80 KTS PEAK INTENSITY
AROUND BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING PERIOD SOON
AFTER. AS THE PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE RETROGRADES SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR TC GEZANI WILL ROUND THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE AND TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND TAU 72. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENTALLY
WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC TROUGH PROPAGATING
TO THE SOUTH. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO FACILITATE A
POLEWARD RECURVATURE OF TC 21S. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND TAU 72 IS
LOW, DUE TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH NUMERICAL MODELS
DEPICTIONS OF THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AFTER TAU 96.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED
TOWARD A HIGHER DEGREE OF CONSENSUS REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WITHIN THE INITIAL 72 HOURS AS WITNESSED BY A
100 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A SUBSET OF GUIDANCE,
NOTABLY NAVGEM AND ECMWF, CONTINUES TO DEPICT A LESS DISTINCT PHASING
EVENT WITH THE ADVANCING LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT
IN A FAILURE OF THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE, PERMITTING A WESTWARD OR EVEN
NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY AND A POTENTIAL THREAT TO COASTAL MOZAMBIQUE.
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE, UKMET, GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
INDICATE A SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSLATIONAL SPEEDS AND SOUTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST REMAINS ALIGNED WITH THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS RECURVATURE SOLUTION, ALBEIT WITH ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE LONG-TERM TRACK FORECAST. WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY, ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A 24 HOUR SLOW-DOWN, CULMINATING IN
STEADY WEAKENING AFTERWARDS. LONG-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, AS UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK
PREDICTION, AS WELL AS SPEED OVER WATER WILL DETERMINE THE RATE AND
MECHANISM OF THE WEAKENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-2-12 04:25

WTIO30 FMEE 111848
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/10/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 43.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/12 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/12 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2026/02/13 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

48H: 2026/02/13 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/14 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 0

72H: 2026/02/14 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/15 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 370 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 205 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2026/02/16 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 370 SW: 390 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

GEZANI'S CENTER MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON THE
CENTRAL-WEST MALAGASY COAST AROUND 13Z, APPROXIMATELY 80 KM SOUTH OF
MAINTIRANO (EXTREME SOUTHWEST OF MAHAJANGA PROVINCE, MELAKY REGION).
THE CURVED BAND CONVECTIVE PATTERN THAT HAD ALREADY BEEN PRESENT
SINCE MIDDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM WAS STILL OVER LAND REMAINED IN PLACE
WHEN IT RE-EMERGED AT SEA, WITH A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND A
LITTLE MORE THAN HALF A TURN NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS CLEARLY SHOWN BY MICROWAVE IMAGES GPM AT
1132Z, F18 AT 1258Z, WSFM AT 1532Z, F16 AT 1548Z AND METOP AROUND
18Z. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOW A QUITE WELL DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN TERMS OF DVORAK ANALYSIS, THIS CLOUD
PATTERN YIELDS A DT OF 2.5+. THE 1544Z SAR RCM-3 PASS AS WELL AS THE
1758Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS THEREFORE
REINTENSIFIED TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE WITH WINDS OF 35 KT.

REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST, THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT
CONTINUES UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST. ON FRIDAY, GEZANI'S TRACK SHOULD
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD, THEN SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
RETRACTS. AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST ON
SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN EAST. UNCERTAINTY
BECOMES VERY HIGH FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARDS REGARDING THE SYSTEM'S
SLOWDOWN AND THE TRACK'S POSSIBLE RECURVING, BECAUSE OF CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS. THE RSMC TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAIN NWP
MODELS AND AI ENSEMBLES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL NOW INTENSIFY OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE WEAK SHEAR FROM NOW UNTIL
FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD ALLOW IT TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEN UNCERTAIN FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, DEPENDING MAINLY ON THE MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT
INTERACTION WITH MOZAMBIQUE LANDMASS. DEEP SHEAR COULD THEN BECOME
MODERATE FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, POSSIBLY LIMITING GEZANI'S POTENTIAL
FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (SOUTH-WEST OF MAHAJANGA PROVINCE, NORTH-WEST OF TOLIARA
PROVINCE) :
- HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING NEAR THE
COAST OF SOUTH-WEST MAHAJANGA PROVINCE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR
100-200 MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY 300 MM.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING NEAR THE COASTS OF SOUTHWEST
MAHAJANGA AND NORTHWEST TOLIARA PROVINCES.
- CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MOZAMBIQUE (INHAMBANE PROVINCE) :
- GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY LASTING UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OF EVENING. STORM-FORCE WINDS LIKELY AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TOTALS NEARING 100 MM IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS NEAR THE COAST.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4 METERS FROM FRIDAY NOON AND UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING. TEMPORARY HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WAVES NEAR 7 TO 10 METERS. STORM SURGE NEAR 50
CM.=

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-2-12 08:30

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-12 10:05 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 120049
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/10/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 42.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/12 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/02/13 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

36H: 2026/02/13 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/02/14 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

60H: 2026/02/14 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/02/15 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/16 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2026/02/17 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 325 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GEZANI'S CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE WITH A CURVED BAND PATTERN WRAPPING MORE THAN THREE-QUARTERS
AROUND. THIS IMPROVEMENT IS CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES
(NOAA20 ATMS AT 2215Z, GCOM-W AMSR2 AT 2236Z). SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS IS SET AT 3.5-. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KT, SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MOST OF THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE AIDS BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATCON
(50KT, 1-MIN WINDS).

REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST, THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT
CONTINUES UNTIL TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST. GEZANI'S TRACK SHOULD TURN SOUTHWESTWARD
ON FRIDAY THEN SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE RETRACTS. THE
SCENARIO OF A LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE IS RELATIVELY MINORITARY AMONG
THE LATEST NWP OUTPUT, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK PASSES VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST, SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE PARTIAL
AND VERY TEMPORARY LANDFALL. ON SATURDAY, AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TO THE
SOUTH-EAST THEN EAST. UNCERTAINTY BECOMES VERY HIGH FROM THE WEEKEND
ONWARDS REGARDING THE SYSTEM'S SLOWDOWN AND THE TRACK'S POSSIBLE
RECURVING BECAUSE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. THE RSMC TRACK IS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAIN NWP MODELS AND AI ENSEMBLES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED SLIGHTLY UPWARD,
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NWP OUTPUT AND IN THE LIGHT OF THE OBSERVED
STRUCTURE'S IMPROVEMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
FAIRLY RAPID RATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BENEFITING FROM GOOD
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. IT COULD
THEREFORE REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
POSSIBLY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEN UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, DEPENDING
MAINLY ON THE MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH MOZAMBIQUE'S
LANDMASS. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, THE CONVECTIVE
CORE WOULD NOT PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO MAKE IT WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY, DEEP SHEAR COULD BECOME
MODERATE, WHICH COULD MORE OR LESS LIMIT THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY, BUT
THIS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE TRACK.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR : CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVING.

MOZAMBIQUE (INHAMBANE PROVINCE) :
- GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY LASTING UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OF EVENING. STORM-FORCE WINDS LIKELY AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TOTALS NEARING 100 MM IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS NEAR THE COAST.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4 METERS FROM FRIDAY NOON AND UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING. TEMPORARY HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WAVES NEAR 7 TO 10 METERS. STORM SURGE NEAR 50
CM LOCALLY.

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