MEDIUM - 雅浦岛东北95W - 11.7N 139.7E - 或将北上影响关岛 - JMA:LPA

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红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-3-9 20:27
SSD及JTWC 12Z均分析T1.0

JTWC稍早前修改分析

TPPN10 PGTW 091334 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (NE OF YAP)
B. 09/1131Z
C. 10.69N
D. 138.23E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. CORRECTED FOR INTIAL OBS REMARK.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

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JMA 12Z维持LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 11N 138E WEST 10 KT.

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JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.0

TPPN10 PGTW 091450
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (N OF YAP)
B. 09/1430Z
C. 11.51N
D. 137.91E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LOCATED
NEAR COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT YIELD 1.0. DBO
PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

Enceladus

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昨天晚间ASCAT风场扫描

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GFS 12Z继续支持稍有发展，巅峰约998百帕

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SSD 18Z分析升至T1.5

TXPQ29 KNES 091810
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)
B.  09/1730Z
C.  11.2N
D.  137.7E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...3.5/10 BROKEN BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS
1.0. THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO FLARING CONVECTION
AND IRREGULAR BANDING FEATURES.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...MONAGHAN

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JTWC 18Z分析维持T1.0

TPPN10 PGTW 091819
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (N OF YAP)
B. 09/1730Z
C. 11.63N
D. 137.73E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LOCATED
UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS
1.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   THOMPSON

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JMA今天凌晨予想天气图继续预报+24h升格TD，+48h维持TD