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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-12-30 12:00 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 78.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 78.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.5S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.7S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.1S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.1S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.9S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.3S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.7S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 77.7E.
30DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 551
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300000Z IS 955 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z AND 310300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 300300
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR
- 026//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 14.3S 78.3E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 551 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE (TC) 09S (GRANT) WITH A RELATIVELY COMPACT CONVECTIVE
- STRUCTURE AND AN OBSERVABLE PINHOLE EYE-FEATURE, WHICH HAS BECOME
- INCREASINGLY OBSCURED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. PERSISTENT DEEP
- CONVECTION HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO WRAP NEATLY AROUND THE CENTRAL
- VORTEX OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALOFT, WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS
- BECOME THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT MECHANISM, OBSERVABLE ON
- ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED
- WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 292244Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE AND
- ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CIMSS
- AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED DIRECTLY TO
- THE SOUTH
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
- DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
- FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS
- FIMP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 107 KTS AT 292007Z
- CIMSS ADT: 107 KTS AT 300000Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 100 KTS AT 300100Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 117 KTS AT 292244Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 103 KTS AT 300030Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 5-10 KTS
- SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 09S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK WESTWARD
- THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 72 HOURS, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, TC
- 09S IS EXPECTED TO GAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL THE END OF THE
- FORECAST PERIOD AS A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWESTWARD
- INTO NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC GRANT IS
- FORECASTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS AS
- UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW SUPPORT BEGINS TO DECREASE. WHILE THIS OCCURS,
- VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS BY
- TAU 72, WHILE DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE SYSTEMS STRUCTURE, LENDING
- CREDENCE TO THE MINIMUM INTENSITY OF 60 KTS BY TAU 96. FOLLOWING
- TAU 96, TC 09S IS FORECASTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 70 KTS BY TAU 120,
- AS AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
- BECOMES MINIMAL (LESS THAN 10 KTS), AND THE CORE RE-MOISTENS.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
- GOOD AGREEMENT INTO TAU 48, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 125 NM.
- FOLLOWING TAU 48, THE SHIFT IN PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS BEGIN TO
- EXTEND THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD, HOWEVER, ALL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
- SUGGESTS A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK INTO TAU 48 AND TAU 72, WITH A
- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER. WITH AN EQUAL PART OF NUMERICAL MODEL
- TRACK SOLUTIONS PLACED NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS, THE
- JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE JTWC
- CONSENSUS ENVELOPE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE TRACK FORECAST
- INTO TAU 48, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. REGARDING INTENSITY,
- ALL MODEL INTENSITY SOLUTIONS ILLUSTRATE A STEADY WEAKENING PHASE
- INTO TAU 72. FOLLOWING TAU 72, EACH SOLUTION AGREES ON A STEADY
- RE-INTENSIFICATION PHASE INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
- JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ALIGNED WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
- CONSENSUS, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: Ck.
发表于 2025-12-29 16:20
