迪戈加西亚东南强热带气旋第6号“杜扎伊”(14S.Dudzai) - MFR:110KT JTWC:125KT

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 020   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 22.9S 58.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 58.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 25.1S 57.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 28.3S 57.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 33.1S 60.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 58.0E. 20JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 200300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING
   
4. NR 020//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 22.9S 58.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 179 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
    
13. MAURITIUS
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT
    
19. RAPIDLY TRACKS POLEWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS AND LA
    
20. REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
    
21. WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH
    
22. REINVIGORATED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS
    
23. DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 192052Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE
    
24. IMAGE DEPICTED A STRONG MICROWAVE EYE AND WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS
    
25. WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH
    
26. HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE
    
27. FEATURE DISCUSSED ABOVE AS WELL AS THE DEFINED LLCC IN THE EIR. THE
    
28. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
    
29. HIGHER END OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
    
30. NOTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL, WITH LOW, BUT
    
31. INCREASING, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MARGINAL SSTS (27-28C) AND
    
32. ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
37. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
41.    DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
42.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
43.    FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
44.    CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 192230Z
    
45.    CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 192330Z
    
46.    CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 192330Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 192107Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 192330Z
    
49. 
    
50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
51.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
52.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
53.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
54.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
    
55. 
    
56. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
57.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
58.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
59.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
60. 
    
61. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
62. 
    
63. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRUNCATED TO 36
    
64. HOURS.
    
65. 
    
66. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
    
67. ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
    
68. THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND TAU 18 AND THEN BEGIN
    
69. TO ACCELERATE SOUTH, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES TO THE
    
70. SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
    
71. FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHEAR IS
    
72. EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS, AND
    
73. WILL BE OFFSET BY EXTREMELY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE BASE
    
74. OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
    
75. MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
    
76. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE POLAR
    
77. FRONT JET, MOVES INTO PHASE WITH A 500MB TROF AND BEGINS TO MERGE
    
78. WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. FULL TRANSITION TO A STORM-FORCE
    
79. EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 36.
    
80. 
    
81. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT,
    
82. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EITHER CROSS- OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
    
83. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
    
84. CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
85. AGREEMENT, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOWING THE SYSTEM
    
86. MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE
    
87. BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
    
88. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH
    
89. CONFIDENCE.
    
90. 
    
91. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
92.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
93.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
94. NNNN

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、刘涛  签发：王海平  2026 年 01 月 20 日 10 时
“杜扎伊”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 20日08时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬22.9度，东经58.4度

强度等级: 强热带风暴

最大风力: 10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 984百帕

参考位置: 距离法属留尼旺东南方向约365公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“杜扎伊”最大风力由9级加强为10级

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时24公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度略微增强后减弱。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月20日08时00分）

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析升至T3.0/3.0

TPXS11 PGTW 200314
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 20/0230Z
C. 22.98S
D. 58.16E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

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WTIO30 FMEE 200821
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 41/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 57.8 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 35.3 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 360 SW: 110 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/22 06 UTC: 43.2 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ONCE AGAIN WRAPPED
AROUND THE CENTRE, GIVING THE SYSTEM A MORE SYMMETRICAL ASPECT. IT
HAS ADOPTED AN EYE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A SLIGHTLY GREATER CURVATURE,
LEADING TO AN UPWARD REVISION OF THE DVORAK ANALYSIS TO 4.0+. WE CAN
THEREFORE LEAVE THE CI AT 4.0+, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE OTHER OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM MSG2 AND METOP
SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, SUGGESTING A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF WINDS UP TO THE 60KT THRESHOLD. AT 06UTC, DUDZAI
IS STILL CLASSIFIED AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH WIND SPEEDS
ESTIMATED AT 60KT.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK: DUDZAI CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TRACK ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. ON
THIS TRACK, DUDZAI IS CURRENTLY PASSING CLOSEST TO REUNION ISLAND,
APPROXIMATELY 320 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TURNING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TALWEG APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE RETREAT OF THE
RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST. ALL MODELS CONFIRM THIS RSMC FORECAST WITH A
DISPERSION THAT IS CURRENTLY LOW.

REGARDING INTENSITY, VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAVOURABLE OVER A
SHORT PERIOD, LEAVING A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION OVER WATERS
THAT ARE STILL FAIRLY WARM. HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS SEEMS LESS AND LESS LIKELY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS
IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE RETAINING THE
INTENSITY OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD
FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE DEPRESSION.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T3.0/3.0

TPXS11 PGTW 200613
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 20/0530Z
C. 23.41S
D. 57.77E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. BOTH MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、刘涛  签发：王海平  2026 年 01 月 20 日 18 时
“杜扎伊”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 20日14时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬23.6度，东经57.7度

强度等级: 强热带风暴

最大风力: 10级，25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 989百帕

参考位置: 距离法属留尼旺东南方向约370公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“杜扎伊”最大风力由9级加强为10级

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度维持或略有减弱。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月20日14时00分）

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析升至T3.5

TPXS11 PGTW 200911
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 20/0830Z
C. 24.17S
D. 57.28E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 3.5.
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

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WTIO30 FMEE 201325
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 42/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 56.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SW: 110 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/21 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 285 SW: 120 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/21 12 UTC: 32.3 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 315 SW: 150 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SW: 75 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2026/01/22 00 UTC: 38.8 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 315 SW: 130 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 205 SW: 100 NW: 215

48H: 2026/01/22 12 UTC: 45.3 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 705 SE: 220 SW: 470 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 415 SE: 150 SW: 250 NW: 250

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ONCE AGAIN WRAPPED
AROUND THE CENTRE, GIVING THE SYSTEM A MORE SYMMETRICAL ASPECT. IT
HAS ADOPTED AN EYE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A SLIGHTLY GREATER CURVATURE,
LEADING TO AN UPWARD REVISION OF THE DVORAK ANALYSIS TO 4.0+. WE CAN
THEREFORE LEAVE THE CI AT 4.0+, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE OTHER OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM MSG2 AND METOP
SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, SUGGESTING A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF WINDS UP TO THE 60KT THRESHOLD. AT 06UTC, DUDZAI
IS STILL CLASSIFIED AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH WIND SPEEDS
ESTIMATED AT 60KT.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK: DUDZAI CONTINUES ITS SOUTH TRACK ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK,
DUDZAI IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST OF REUNION ISLAND. TOMORROW
MORNING IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TALWEG APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE
RETREAT OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST. ALL MODELS CONFIRM THIS RSMC
FORECAST  WITH VERY LOW DISPERSION.

REGARDING INTENSITY, VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAVOURABLE LEAVING
A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION OVER WATERS THAT ARE STILL FAIRLY
WARM. HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS SEEMS LESS
AND LESS LIKELY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S
LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IT MAY BE CLASSIFIED AS POST-TROPICAL ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EXTRATROPICAL AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
MERGER WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE DEPRESSION.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T3.5

TPXS11 PGTW 201212
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI)
B. 20/1130Z
C. 24.78S
D. 56.99E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 4.0 AND PT YIELDS
3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

pocketbox

WTXS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 021   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 24.9S 57.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 57.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 28.0S 57.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 32.6S 60.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 57.1E.
20JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201200Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 201500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR
   
4. 021//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 24.9S 57.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 280 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WITH A WELL-DEFINED AND COMPACT LOW-LEVEL
    
19. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW
    
20. AND CONFINED TO A SMALL POCKET OVER THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. THE
    
21. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
22. DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER IN
    
23. ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
    
24. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIX AND OBJECTIVE
    
25. INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE ANALYZED
    
26. TO BE UNDERESTIMATING INTENSITY DUE TO THE WEAK CONVECTIVE
    
27. STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 14S
    
28. IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD
    
29. OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND BORDERLINE
    
30. (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DRY AIR COMPLETELY SURROUNDS
    
31. THE VORTEX, BUT IT HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A MOIST INNER-CORE.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED
    
34. ON THE OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
37. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
41.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
42.    FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
43.    FIMP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
44.    CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 201026Z
    
45.    CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 201130Z
    
46.    CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 201130Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-MINT: 52 KTS AT 200936Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 48 KTS AT 201130Z
    
49. 
    
50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
51.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
52.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
53.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
54.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM
    
55. 
    
56. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
57.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
58.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
59.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
60. 
    
61. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
62. 
    
63. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
64. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
65. 
    
66. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD, ALONG
    
67. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST, THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER
    
68. TAU 12, 14S IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS
    
69. THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE
    
70. WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET. 14S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS
    
71. CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE EXTREME
    
72. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE JET OFFSETTING THE INCREASING SHEAR, DRY
    
73. AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 14S IS
    
74. FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 12 AS IT CROSSES
    
75. THE 26 C ISOTHERM AND BEGINS TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
    
76. BAROCLINIC ZONE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
    
77. DROP AFTER TAU 12 AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 22-23 C AT TAU 24. AS
    
78. A RESULT, 14S IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION INTO A STORM-
    
79. FORCE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR TAU 24.
    
80. 
    
81. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
    
82. AGREEMENT WITH A MERE 55 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24 WITH
    
83. MINIMAL ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR
    
84. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
85. IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STEADY INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    
86. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
    
87. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
88. 
    
89. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
90.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
91.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
92. NNNN

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