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IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Transmitters serving the Karratha to Onslow areas, including Mardie, are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued at 2:06 am WST on Sunday 8 February 2026
Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is to the northwest of Dampier and
moving southwest.
Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Roebourne to Cape Cuvier, including Karratha, Onslow, and
Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara to include
Pannawonica.
Watch zone: South of Cape Cuvier to Carnarvon, and adjacent inland areas.
Cancelled zone: East of Roebourne to west of Whim Creek.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 185 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.2 degrees South 116.2 degrees East,
estimated to be 85 kilometres northwest of Karratha and 190 kilometres
northeast of Onslow.
Movement: west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is at category 3 strength and is
expected to maintain its strength as it moves closer to the west Pilbara coast
during Sunday morning.
Mitchell is forecast to move closer to Onslow during Sunday afternoon, but
remaining over water as it moves between Onslow and Exmouth, possibly making
landfall over the southern Exmouth Gulf coast on Sunday evening.
Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 195 km/h are possible over the coastal parts of
the Pilbara around Karratha, Dampier, and Wickham on Sunday morning, especially
if Mitchell moves closer than forecast, extending west to Onslow later on
Sunday as the destructive core of Mitchell moves closer to the coast.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are possible around Karratha, Dampier, and
Wickham on Sunday morning, extending west towards Onslow on Sunday afternoon
and extending to Exmouth during Sunday night.
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring along coastal areas
between Roebourne and Mardie, possibly extending inland to Pannawonica later on
Sunday morning. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to
extend west to Onslow and Exmouth on Sunday afternoon and evening, and then
extend further south to Cape Cuvier and inland parts of the western Pilbara on
Sunday night.
Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is
likely over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on
Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may
develop around the west Pilbara coast west of Karratha this morning.
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING in the Karratha region early
this morning, and then in the Onslow region this afternoon.
Elsewhere on the west Pilbara coast including Exmouth, tides are likely to rise
above the normal high tide mark on Sunday which may produce FLOODING of
low-lying coastal areas.
Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.
Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Sunday 08 February.
Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532). Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
| | Time (AWST) | Intensity Category | Latitude
(decimal deg.) | Longitude
(decimal deg.) | Estimated Position
Accuracy (km) | | 0hr | 2 am February 7 | 1 | 18.7S | 119.2E | 55 | | +6hr | 8 am February 7 | 1 | 18.9S | 118.5E | 65 | | +12hr | 2 pm February 7 | 2 | 19.5S | 117.8E | 70 | | +18hr | 8 pm February 7 | 2 | 19.9S | 117.2E | 70 | | +24hr | 2 am February 8 | 2 | 20.2S | 116.4E | 80 | | +36hr | 2 pm February 8 | 2 | 21.4S | 115.1E | 105 | | +48hr | 2 am February 9 | 1 | 22.7S | 114.3E | 130 | | +60hr | 2 pm February 9 | tropical low | 24.4S | 114.1E | 165 | | +72hr | 2 am February 10 | tropical low | 25.8S | 115.4E | 205 |
- IDW27600
- TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
- ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
- CENTRE
- AT: 1824 UTC 07/02/2026
- NAME: SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MITCHELL
- IDENTIFIER: 21U
- DATA AT: 1800 UTC
- LATITUDE: 20.2S
- LONGITUDE: 116.2E
- LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 15NM (30 KM)
- MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST SOUTHWEST (237 DEG)
- SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 8 KNOTS (14 KM/H)
- MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 75 KNOTS (140 KM/H)
- MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 105 KNOTS (195 KM/H)
- CENTRAL PRESSURE: 966 HPA
- RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 80 NM (150 KM)
- RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 65 NM (120 KM)
- RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 65 NM (120 KM)
- RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 75 NM (140 KM)
- RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 45 NM (85 KM)
- RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 40 NM (75 KM)
- RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 40 NM (75 KM)
- RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 45 NM (85 KM)
- RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS: 25 NM (45 KM)
- RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 15 NM (30 KM)
- DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
- PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1001 HPA
- RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 100 NM (185 KM)
- FORECAST DATA
- DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL
- PRESSURE
- (UTC) : DEGREES : NM (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
- +06: 08/0000: 20.7S 115.6E: 025 (050): 075 (140): 962
- +12: 08/0600: 21.3S 114.9E: 035 (070): 075 (140): 962
- +18: 08/1200: 21.8S 114.5E: 045 (080): 070 (130): 965
- +24: 08/1800: 22.4S 114.1E: 050 (090): 065 (120): 969
- +36: 09/0600: 24.0S 113.9E: 065 (120): 040 (075): 988
- +48: 09/1800: 25.6S 114.7E: 080 (145): 030 (055): 994
- +60: 10/0600: 26.9S 116.7E: 100 (185): 025 (045): 997
- +72: 10/1800: 27.0S 118.4E: 105 (200): 020 (035): 999
- +96: 11/1800: : : :
- +120: 12/1800: : : :
- REMARKS:
- SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MITCHELL IS MAINTAINING CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY
- AS IT
- TRACKS SOUTHWEST OFFSHORE OF THE PILBARA COAST. RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS
- A TIGHT
- AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, WITH A DISTINCT EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY
- DEEP
- CONVECTION. SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED
- OVER THE PAST
- SIX HOURS, WITH THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING A BROAD AND DENSE COLD CLOUD
- CANOPY.
- POSITION CONFIDENCE IS GOOD, BASED ON RADAR AND NEARBY SURFACE
- OBSERVATIONS.
- DVORAK ANALYSIS: USING EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH A WHITE SURROUND,
- YIELDING
- A DT OF 5.0. THE MET IS 4.0, BASED ON THE 24-HOUR DVORAK DEVELOPMENT
- TREND,
- WITH A PT ADJUSTMENT TO 4.5. THE FINAL T AND CI ARE BOTH 4.5.
- OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (1-MINUTE MEAN) AT 1720 UTC INDICATES ADT 82 KN,
- AIDT 79 KN,
- DPRINT 69 KN, DMINT 69 KN (1009 UTC), AND SATCON 81 KN (0810 UTC).
- OPERATIONAL
- INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KN, CONSISTENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
- ESTIMATE AND
- SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.
- CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATES DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND
- SHEAR AROUND
- 21 KN (12 UTC). STRENGTHENING UPPER EASTERLIES ON THE NORTHERN FLANK
- OF THE
- SUBTROPICAL JET ARE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HAVE BEEN
- BEGINNING TO
- IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS, UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS
- FAVOURABLE,
- PARTICULARLY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, SUPPORTED BY
- PERSISTENT
- POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVOURABLE AT 28
- 29 C
- ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
- MITCHELL IS MOVING INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAND, WHICH IS EXPECTED
- TO
- INCREASINGLY LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
- MAINTAINED CORE
- STRUCTURE AND CONTINUED FAVOURABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, SLIGHT
- ADDITIONAL
- INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ONCE THE SYSTEM TRACKS PAST
- BARROW ISLAND.
- OVERALL, MITCHELL IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN NEAR-CURRENT INTENSITY
- PRIOR TO
- LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN EXMOUTH GULF COAST LATE ON SUNDAY.
- MITCHELL IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
- OF A
- MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS, THE
- TRACK IS
- EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY, BY WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM
- IS LIKELY
- TO BE INLAND. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST
- TRACK
- OVER THE NEXT 24 36 HOURS. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, MITCHELL IS EXPECTED
- TO WEAKEN
- STEADILY, FALLING BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY DURING MONDAY.
- COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
- ==
- THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 08/0130 UTC.=
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-2-7 23:23
发表于 2026-2-8 00:10
