莫桑比克海峡中等热带风暴第10号“盖扎尼”(21S.Gezani) - 西行近岸爆发穿越马达加斯加中部，进入莫峡再度增强，尔后或在莫峡南部回旋 - MAX MFR:100KT JTWC:110KT

ygsj24

WTXS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 42.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 42.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 20.4S 40.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 21.2S 38.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 22.4S 36.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 23.9S 36.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 26.4S 37.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 26.6S 40.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 27.2S 41.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 41.7E.
12FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187
NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120000Z
IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 120300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR
   
4. 009//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 19.7S 42.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 187 NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
    
18. COMPACT AND RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH TIGHTLY CURVED
    
19. CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. AN
    
20. 112235Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THAT A DEFINED 22 NM
    
21. MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE HAS FORMED, INDICATIVE OF A QUICKLY
    
22. DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
23. CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL
    
24. INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
25. AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED
    
26. BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 21S IS IN A HIGHLY
    
27. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW
    
28. (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
    
29. TEMPERATURES.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
    
34. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
38.    FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 112216Z
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 120000Z
    
41.    CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 120000Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-MINT: 44 KTS AT 112235Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 38 KTS AT 120000Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
46.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
47.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
48.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: INCREASED THE PEAK INTENSITY TO 95
    
58. KTS FROM 75 KTS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD,
    
61. ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
    
62. TAU 36. NEAR TAU 36, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND
    
63. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW BEHIND. 21S IS FORECAST TO
    
64. TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU AS IT ATTEMPTS TO ROUND THE WESTERN
    
65. PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. NEAR TAU 72, THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
    
66. WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE VORTEX, PUSHING IT EASTWARD THROUGH
    
67. TAU 96. HOWEVER, MODELS GREATLY DIFFER ON WHAT DIRECTION THE SYSTEM
    
68. WILL BE STEERED AFTER TAU 72. ECMEF SHOWS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
    
69. BUILDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN AFRICA, CAUSING A SHARP TURN NORTHWARD,
    
70. BACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. GFS, ON THE OTHER HAND, SHOWS THE
    
71. SYSTEM TAKING A MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
    
72. INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST IS
    
73. HEDGED CLOSER TO THE GFS PREDICTION AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE
    
74. GOOGLE DEEPMIND (GDM) ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A MUCH SLOWER POLEWARD
    
75. TURN DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN WITH INFLUENCES FROM
    
76. MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS. REGARDING INTENSITY, 21S IS FORECAST TO
    
77. RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO AROUND 90 KTS
    
78. (POTENTIALLY HIGHER) IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
79. ENVIRONMENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COMPACT CIRCULATION. THE
    
80. INTENSITY IS THEN FORECAST TO PEAK AT AROUND 95 KTS AND STABILIZE
    
81. AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE DUE TO SOME DRY
    
82. CONTINENTAL AIR INTRUDING INTO THE VORTEX. NEAR TAU 96, SHEAR WILL
    
83. INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH,
    
84. FURTHER AIDING IN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, SLOW TRACK
    
85. SPEEDS NEAR TAU 96 COULD ALLOW FOR UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS
    
86. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DUE TO A TONGUE OF LOW OHC
    
87. WATERS WITHIN THE AREA. A COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL WEAKEN
    
88. THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120.  
    
89. 
    
90. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
91. AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 110 NM AT
    
92. THAT TIME. AFTER TAU 48, MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE WITH SOME
    
93. VARIATIONS OF THE MODELS OUTLINED IN THE FORECAST DISCUSSION
    
94. SECTION. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120 IS NEARLY 1000 NM BETWEEN
    
95. THE FAST GFS AND THE SLOW ECMWF. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
    
96. NEAR THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND THEN
    
97. CLOSER TO THE GDM THROUGH TAU 120 WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
    
98. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON A RAPID RATE OF
    
99. INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36, A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72,
    
100. AND WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
     
101. PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
     
102. THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO A COMBINATION
     
103. OF SIGNIFICANT TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES
     
104. REVOLVING AROUND RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
     
105. 
     
106. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
107.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
108.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
     
109.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
110.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
     
111. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：张 玲  2026 年 02 月 12 日 10 时
“盖扎尼”逐渐向莫桑比克海峡西部海域靠近
未来一周将给莫桑比克海峡附近带来较明显的风雨天气

时  间: 2月12日08时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “盖扎尼”，GEZANI

中心位置: 南纬19.4度，东经42.0度

强度等级: 热带风暴

最大风力: 8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 999百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋莫桑比克索法拉省贝拉东方向约755公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“盖扎尼”由10级减弱为6级，11日夜间入海后又逐渐加强为8级

预报结论: “盖扎尼”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，逐渐向莫桑比克海峡西部海面靠近，强度将再次明显加强，由于“盖扎尼”尺度小，结构紧凑，不排除其在莫桑比克海峡西部海域或莫桑比克东南部近海加强为强热带气旋的可能，13日夜间前后将在莫桑比克东南部近海海面逐渐转向偏南方向移动，以后可能会在莫桑比克海峡回旋3-5天。

受其影响，12日中午到13日中午，莫桑比克海峡的风力将逐渐加大到7-9级，“盖扎尼”中心经过的附近海域风力可达10-12级，阵风 13-14级。未来一周“盖扎尼”将给莫桑比克海峡附近海域和沿海地区带来较明显的风雨天气。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月12日08时00分）

桑美和伊欧凯

ygsj24 发表于 2026-2-12 10:29
WTXS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S ( ...

近距离擦过莫桑比克却不登陆

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 120648
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/10/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 41.0 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/12 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2026/02/13 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2026/02/13 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/02/14 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/02/14 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2026/02/15 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/16 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

120H: 2026/02/17 06 UTC: 24.7 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF GEZANI IN A CURVED
BAND HAS TENDED TO EVOLVE INTO AN ILL-DEFINED EYE CONFIGURATION. A
DVORAK ANALYSIS WOULD ALLOW US TO DEFINE A CI OF 4.0, WHICH WOULD BE
IN LINE WITH THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES IN THE ORDER OF 4.0-. THE
LATEST SAR-RCM2 DATA FROM 0255UTC, PROVIDING VALUES OF 53KT, VALIDATE
THIS ANALYSIS. GEZANI IS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING, WITH A BANDED EYE
CONFIGURATION LIKELY TO APPEAR SOON. AT 06UTC, GEZANI WILL THEREFORE
PASS THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM, THE TRACK WILL REMAIN WEST-SOUTHWEST
UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
MOVEMENT WILL THEN TURN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY DURING THE DAY AND SOUTH
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RETREAT OF
THE RIDGE. THE SCENARIO OF A LANDFALL IN MOZAMBIQUE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST ENVISAGES A VERY CLOSE PASSAGE OR EVEN A PARTIAL AND VERY
TEMPORARY LANDFALL. ON SATURDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN ALTITUDE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, GEZANI'S TRACK WILL MAKE A WIDE TURN
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, LEAVING A
NORTHWARD DIRECTION ON TUESDAY, WHILE SLOWING DOWN TO BEGIN A LOOP OR
A TURNAROUND. UNCERTAINTY BECOMES VERY SIGNIFICANT FROM THE WEEKEND
ONWARDS REGARDING THE WIDE TURN AND THE SLOWDOWN OR EVENTUAL REVERSAL
OF THE TRACK DUE TO CONTRADICTORY DIRECTING FLOWS. THE RSMC TRACK IS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN NUMERICAL MODELS AND THE AI ENSEMBLES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE, HOWEVER, WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A FAIRLY STEADY RATE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, BENEFITING FROM GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR AND GOOD
ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. IT COULD THEREFORE REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS
BY TOMORROW NIGHT, OR EVEN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEN UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS, DEPENDING MAINLY ON THE MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION
WITH MOZAMBIQUE'S LANDMASS. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST,
THE CONVECTIVE CORE WOULD NOT PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO MAKE IT
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY, DEEP SHEAR COULD BECOME
MODERATE, GEZANI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING ITS WIDE TURN
AND THEN ITS SLOWED TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE (INHAMBANE PROVINCE) :
- GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING FROM FRIDAY EVENING, POSSIBLY LASTING
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON OF EVENING. STORM-FORCE WINDS LIKELY AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AS IT PASSES CLOSEST TO THE COAST
DURING THE NIGHT FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY, UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TOTALS NEARING 100 MM IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS NEAR THE COAST, LOCALLY
200 MM AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE SYSTEM
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4 METERS FROM FRIDAY NOON AND UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING. TEMPORARY HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WAVES NEAR 7 TO 10 METERS. STORM SURGE NEAR 50
CM LOCALLY.

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：葛畅、曹越男  签发：张 玲  2026 年 02 月 12 日 18 时
“盖扎尼”将在莫桑比克海峡再次明显加强
并可能在莫桑比克海峡滞留1周左右的时间

时  间: 2月12日14时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “盖扎尼”，GEZANI

中心位置: 南纬19.8度，东经41.0度

强度等级: 强热带风暴

最大风力: 10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 990百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋莫桑比克索法拉省贝拉东方向约645公里

变化过程: 11日夜间入海后由6级增强为10级

预报结论: “盖扎尼”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，逐渐向莫桑比克海峡西部海面靠近，强度将再次明显加强，由于其尺度小，结构紧凑，不排除13-14日其在莫桑比克海峡西部海域或莫桑比克东南部近海加强为强热带气旋的可能。13日夜间前后其将在莫桑比克东南部近海海面逐渐转向偏南方向移动，也有可能在转向偏南方向移动过程中于14日凌晨到上午登陆或擦过莫桑比克东南部沿海地区，之后可能还会在莫桑比克海峡回旋3-5天。预计 “盖扎尼”在莫桑比克海峡的总滞留时间可能会长达1周左右。

受其影响， 12日晚上到13日晚上，莫桑比克海峡的风力将逐渐加大到8-10级，“盖扎尼”中心经过的附近海域风力可达11-14级，阵风 15-16级。未来一周“盖扎尼”将给莫桑比克海峡附近海域和莫桑比克中南部沿海地区带来较强烈的风雨天气。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月12日14时00分）

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WTIO30 FMEE 121220
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 39.9 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 70 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/13 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2026/02/13 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/02/14 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/02/14 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/02/15 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2026/02/15 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/16 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

120H: 2026/02/17 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GEZANI'S CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED INTO
AN EYE CONFIGURATION, WHICH IS QUITE FLUCTUATING BUT HAS BEEN
IMPROVING IN RECENT MINUTES. A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 4.5 CAN BE MADE,
PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS. THIS
ANALYSIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. THE
LATEST GCOM-W MICROWAVE PASS AT 1047UTC SHOWS A VERY SOLID LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION, BUT WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
IN THIS CONTEXT, GEZANI IS PASSING THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF AROUND 65KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM, THE TRACK WILL REMAIN WEST-SOUTHWEST
UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
MOVEMENT WILL THEN TURN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY DURING THE DAY AND SOUTH
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RETREAT OF
THE RIDGE. THE SCENARIO OF A LANDFALL IN MOZAMBIQUE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST ENVISAGES A VERY CLOSE PASSAGE OR EVEN A PARTIAL AND VERY
TEMPORARY LANDFALL. ON SATURDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN ALTITUDE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, GEZANI'S TRACK WILL MAKE A WIDE TURN FROM
SATURDAY ONWARDS TOWARDS THE EAST. THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST IS
THEREFORE EVOLVING TOWARDS A SCENARIO OF A TRACK MORE CLEARLY GUIDED
BY THE EVACUATION OF THIS TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS MORE CLEAR IN
THE MODEL ENSEMBLES, PARTICULARLY IN THE IA, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS AND THE PRECURSORS OF EITHER SCENARIO REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS STAGE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST: THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A FAIRLY STEADY RATE OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS, BENEFITING FROM GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR AND GOOD
ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. SOME IRREGULARITIES IN ITS INTENSIFICATION RATE
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SHEAR THAT MAY FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY. IT COULD
THEREFORE REACH THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY
EVENING NEAR THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEN
UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, DEPENDING MAINLY ON THE MORE OR LESS
SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH THE MOZAMBIQUE'S LANDMAS. ACCORDING TO
THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, THE CONVECTIVE CORE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM SUNDAY OR
MONDAY, THE DEEP SHEAR COULD BECOME MODERATE, WHICH COULD WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO A GREATER OR LESSER EXTENT. IN THE CURRENT SCENARIO WITH A
MORE DIRECT TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, GEZANI IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN STEADILY DURING ITS WIDE TURN. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED EVEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD, BUT AS WITH THE
TRACK FORECAST, THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE (INHAMBANE PROVINCE) :
- GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING FROM FRIDAY EVENING, POSSIBLY LASTING
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON OF EVENING. STORM-FORCE WINDS LIKELY AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AS IT PASSES CLOSEST TO THE COAST
DURING THE NIGHT FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY, UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TOTALS NEARING 100 MM IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS NEAR THE COAST, LOCALLY
200 MM AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE SYSTEM
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4 METERS FROM FRIDAY NOON AND UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING. TEMPORARY HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WAVES NEAR 7 TO 10 METERS. STORM SURGE NEAR 50
CM LOCALLY.

普通的台风迷

风眼眼温有所升高，应该就快要开眼了。

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WTXS32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 40.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 40.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 21.3S 38.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 22.5S 36.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 23.9S 35.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 25.5S 36.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 26.4S 40.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 26.0S 42.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 28.8S 43.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 39.5E. 12FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121200Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND
131500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 121500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING
   
4. NR 010//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 20.4S 40.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 109 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (GEZANI) IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING ANOTHER
    
18. ROUND OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), INTENSIFYING OVER 35 KNOTS
    
19. SINCE MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    
20. SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT STORM, WITH A WELL-DEFINED,
    
21. CLOUD-COVERED EYE, WITH VERTICAL HOT TOWERS (VHTS) DEVELOPING AROUND
    
22. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
    
23. SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A WARMING EYE, THOUGH EYE TEMPS ARE
    
24. STILL IN THE -35C RANGE DUE TO THE CIRRUS COVER OVER THE EYE. A
    
25. 121046Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALED A SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
    
26. AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF THE LLCC, THOUGH THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN ON THE
    
27. SOUTHWESTERN, UPSHEAR FACING QUADRANT. SUBSEQUENT EIR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
    
28. THIS GAP IN THE EYEWALL IS CLOSING, WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND VHTS
    
29. WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
30. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI AND
    
31. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 36GHZ MICROWAVE
    
32. IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE,
    
33. CONSISTENT WITH THE BULK OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
    
34. ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. THE ACTUAL INTENSITY MAY BE A FEW KNOTS HIGHER,
    
35. CLOSER TO THE AIDT WHICH TENDS TO PERFORM BETTER DURING RI PHASES AND
    
36. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ADT IS NOT TRACKING THE EYE. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
37. CONDITIONS ARE OPTIMAL FOR RI, CHARACTERIZED BY MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND
    
38. SHEAR (VWS), SYMMETRIC RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND ELEVATED OCEAN HEAT
    
39. CONTENT (OHC) PROVIDING AMPLE THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY.
    
40. 
    
41. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
42. 
    
43. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
44. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
45. 
    
46. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
47.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
48.    DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
49.    FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
50.    CIMSS SATCON: 76 KTS AT 121200Z
    
51.    CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 121200Z
    
52.    CIMSS AIDT: 87 KTS AT 121200Z
    
53.    CIMSS D-MINT: 74 KTS AT 121047Z
    
54.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 70 KTS AT 121230Z
    
55. 
    
56. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
57.    VWS: 0-5 KTS
    
58.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
59.    OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
    
60. 
    
61. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
62.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
63.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
64.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
65. 
    
66. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
67. 
    
68. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
69. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
70. 
    
71. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS
    
72. PLACED WITH FAIRLY HIGH CERTAINTY, AS THE SYSTEM WILL TRACE A ROUTE
    
73. AROUND THE STR AXIS, REACHING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 36. AT THIS
    
74. POINT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH ITS CLOSEST POINT TO LANDFALL,
    
75. APPROXIMATELY 30NM EAST OF MAXIXE, MOZAMBIQUE. THE PERIPHERAL WINDS OF
    
76. THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE COASTLINE, THOUGH THE
    
77. VORTEX CORE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE SYSTEM SUBSEQUENTLY
    
78. RECURVES SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 48 UPON ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS. BEYOND
    
79. THIS PERIOD, TRACK UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY, AS A 180-
    
80. DEGREE BIFURCATION MANIFESTS WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, DRIVEN BY
    
81. DIVERGENT KINEMATIC REPRESENTATIONS OF THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN.
    
82. THE PRIMARY DETERMINANTS ARE TRACK SPEED AND THE AMPLITUDE OF AN
    
83. APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE EUROPEAN SUITE
    
84. DEPICTS THE CENTER OF TC 21S TRANSITING BRIEFLY OVER TERRAIN,
    
85. INDUCING FRICTIONAL DECELERATION SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT CAPTURE BY THE
    
86. POLEWARD TROUGH, WHICH IS RELATIVELY ATTENUATED IN THE EUROPEAN
    
87. MODELS; THE SYSTEM IS SUBSEQUENTLY ADVECTED EQUATORWARD UNDER THE
    
88. INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OFF SOUTH AFRICA. CONVERSELY, THE GFS
    
89. SUITE MAINTAINS AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY, PRESERVING TRANSLATIONAL
    
90. VELOCITY AND RESULTING IN TROUGH CAPTURE AND RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD
    
91. ADVECTION. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BLENDED
    
92. SCENARIO CHARACTERIZED BY AN OFFSHORE TRACK PARALLEL TO MOZAMBIQUE,
    
93. FOLLOWED BY MODERATE EASTWARD ADVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH PERIPHERY
    
94. BEFORE EXECUTING A SHARP POLEWARD TURN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.
    
95. THE JTWC FORECAST ADOPTS THE BLENDED APPROACH, FAVORING THE AI
    
96. GUIDANCE, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXTREMELY
    
97. HIGH. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIME FOR RI; THE
    
98. FORECAST ANTICIPATES CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO A MINIMUM OF 110
    
99. KNOTS BY TAU 36. A HIGHER MAGNITUDE PEAK REMAINS PLAUSIBLE, DUE TO THE
    
100. COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. POST-RECURVATURE, THE SYSTEM WILL
     
101. DEGENERATE GRADUALLY, WITH ACCELERATED CYCLOLYSIS EXPECTED AFTER TAU
     
102. 72 DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
     
103. 
     
104. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP), AI, AND
     
105. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE EXHIBIT STRONG CORRELATION THROUGH TAU 48, WITH
     
106. CONSENSUS ENVELOPE WIDTH CONSTRAINED TO 95NM. ECMWF REPRESENTS THE
     
107. WESTERN BOUNDARY, TRACKING THE SYSTEM ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE LITTORAL
     
108. FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 48, WHILE THE GFS CONSTITUTES THE EASTERN EDGE.
     
109. THE ECMWF SUITE IS ALSO THE TRANSLATIONAL MINIMUM THROUGH TAU 48,
     
110. LAGGING THE GFS BY 150NM. POST-TAU 48, THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
     
111. MEAN REDIRECT EQUATORWARD, POSITIONING THE VORTEX EAST OF BEIRA BY
     
112. TAU 120. THE GFS MEANWHILE ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD, REACHING A
     
113. TERMINUS 1300NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL
     
114. PACKAGE TRACKS GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 96 FOLLOWED BY A
     
115. DISCRETE POLEWARD TURN. NEVERTHELESS, A 400NM VARIANCE PERSISTS
     
116. BETWEEN AI MODELS, GALWEM, AND NAVGEM. ENSEMBLES DEPICT EXTREME
     
117. UNCERTAINTY, WITH INTRA-MEMBER SPREAD EXCEEDING 2000NM BY TAU 120.
     
118. THE JTWC FORECAST ALIGNS WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU
     
119. 48 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, TRANSITIONING TO THE GDM FNV3 THEREAFTER.
     
120. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS IS EXTREMELY LOW. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
     
121. IS LARGELY CONGRUENT, THOUGH ANOMALOUSLY, COAMPS-TC (GFS/NAVGEM)
     
122. INDICATES NEGLIGIBLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. HWRF AND HAFS-A
     
123. PROJECT PEAKS BETWEEN 100-110 KNOTS, WHILE MULTIPLE RI AIDS (RIDE,
     
124. DTOP) INDICATE MAGNITUDES APPROACHING 130 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST
     
125. REMAINS MARGINALLY BELOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE RI AIDS, SYNCHRONIZED
     
126. WITH HAFS-A THROUGH PEAK INTENSITY. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THROUGH TAU
     
127. 72, SUBSEQUENTLY LOW, AS THE THERMODYNAMIC EVOLUTION IS CONTINGENT
     
128. UPON THE TRACK SCENARIO.
     
129. 
     
130. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
131.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
132.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
     
133.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
134.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
     
135. NNNN

复制代码

Ragasa

WTIO30 FMEE 121929
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 39.1 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 966 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/13 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/02/13 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/02/14 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/02/14 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/15 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/02/15 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/16 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 370 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

120H: 2026/02/17 18 UTC: 29.9 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 415 SW: 465 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION IMPROVED INITIALY WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES CLOSE TO 5.5. HOWEVER, SINCE 15Z, IT HAS
BEEN DECLINING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TOPS AND A LESS DEFINED EYE;
DVORAK ANALYSES ARE RANGING AROUND 5.0. THE LATEST WSFM AND F17
MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW WEAKNESSES IN THE EYEWALL NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THIS COULD POSSIBLY INDICATE A TEMPORARY INTRUSION OF DRY AIR. IN
ACCORDANCE WITH AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE 1552Z SAR RCM3
PASS, GEZANI'S INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 80KT.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, GEZANI'S TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHEAST SHIFTS. THE SCENARIO OF A LANDFALL IN MOZAMBIQUE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS, GEZANI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE
COAST DURING THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, GEZANI'S TRACK WILL MAKE A
SHARP TURN EASTWARD STARTING ON SATURDAY. THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES
PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN WITH STILL SIGNIFICANT SPREAD. EITHER THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS OR, ON A SLOWER TRACK, IS GRADUALLY TAKEN UP BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FLOW TO THE WEST (IFS, EPS SCENARIO). OR IT IS MORE
OR LESS CARRIED AWAY BY THE UPPER TROUGH, LEADING TO A MORE OR LESS
RAPID EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES (GFS, GEFS ESPECIALLY)
THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE MOMENT A COMPROMISE
FAVORING THE SECOND OPTION, BASED ON MEAN AI ENSEMBLE.

INTENSITY-WISE, NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BENEFITING FROM GOOD
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. IT
SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY
TOMORROW, FRIDAY, AT THE LATEST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN AFTER THAT, DEPENDING MAINLY ON THE MORE OR LESS
SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST. ACCORDING TO THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, THE INNERCORE WILL NOT PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH
INLAND TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY, THE DEEP SHEAR
COULD BECOME MODERATE, WHICH COULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.


EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE (INHAMBANE PROVINCE) :
- GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING LATE FRIDAY. STORM-FORCE WINDS LIKELY AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AS IT PASSES CLOSEST TO THE COAST
DURING THE NIGHT FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY, UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TOTALS NEARING 100 MM IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS NEAR THE COAST, LOCALLY
MORE THAN 200 MM AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE SYSTEM
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4 METERS FROM FRIDAY NOON AND UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING. TEMPORARY HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WAVES NEAR 7 TO 10 METERS. STORM SURGE OF 1M
POSSIBLE NEAR INHAMBANE LOCALLY.=

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 130041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 38.0 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 966 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/13 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2026/02/14 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/02/14 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/02/15 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/02/15 12 UTC: 26.2 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/02/16 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/17 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2026/02/18 00 UTC: 30.1 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 350 SW: 335 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS DETERIORATED AND HAS
EVEN DISAPPEARED IN THE LATEST IMAGES. THE CLOUD TOPS REMAIN FAIRLY
COLD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS TREND COULD POSSIBLY BE
EXPLAINED BY THE TEMPORARY PRESENCE OF WESTERLY SHEAR FORECAST BY
SOME MODELS AND ASSESSED AT 10/15KT BY THE CIMSS. IN THE ABSENCE OF
NEW RELIABLE DATA, GEZANI'S INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 80KT. ITS
POSITION ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, GEZANI'S TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHEAST SHIFTS. THE SCENARIO OF A LANDFALL IN MOZAMBIQUE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS, GEZANI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE
COAST DURING THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, GEZANI'S TRACK WILL MAKE A
SHARP TURN EASTWARD STARTING ON SATURDAY. THE FORECAST THEREFORE
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH STILL SIGNIFICANT SPREAD. HOWEVER, IN ITS
LATEST RUN, THE EUROPEAN IFS MODEL NO LONGER FORECASTS A MARKED
NORTHWARD SHIFT, DRIVEN BY THE NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST, AS
BEFORE. THIS SUPPORTS THE CHOICE TO BASE THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST ON
A COMPROMISE THAT FAVORS A SLOW EVACUATION TOWARDS THE HIGHER
LATITUDES CLOSE TO THE MEAN AI ENSEMBLE.

INTENSITY-WISE, NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST: IN SPITE OF THE
PROBABLY TEMPORARILY WESTERLY SHEAR, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BENEFITING FROM GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. IT COULD
THEREFORE REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE OVERNIGHT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER THAT, DEPENDING
MAINLY ON THE MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, THE
INNERCORE WILL NOT PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY, THE DEEP SHEAR COULD BECOME
MODERATE, WHICH COULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE (INHAMBANE PROVINCE) :
- GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING LATE FRIDAY. STORM-FORCE WINDS LIKELY AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AS IT PASSES CLOSEST TO THE COAST
DURING THE NIGHT FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY, UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TOTALS NEARING 100 MM IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS NEAR THE COAST, LOCALLY
MORE AT THE CLOSEST POINT TO THE TRACK
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4 METERS FROM FRIDAY NOON AND UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING. TEMPORARY HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WAVES NEAR 7 TO 10 METERS. STORM SURGE OF 50CM
TO 1M POSSIBLE NEAR INHAMBANE LOCALLY.