关岛东南2604号热带风暴“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 西行趋向关岛，数值看好强度

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 12Z分析DT1.5 MET1.5 PT1.5 FT1.5 CI1.5，命名机会仍然不大

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        6
featureDirectionOfMotion:        247 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        3.09 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        3
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        2
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        3
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        1
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
finalTNumberType:        1

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 091208
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (SE OF GUAM)
B. 09/1200Z
C. 8.09N
D. 151.64E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

eoj329

自行出H-9 IR,不知亮温有没有出錯~

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析升至T2.5

TXPQ22 KNES 091248
TCSWNP
A.  04W (NONAME)
B.  09/1130Z
C.  8.5N
D.  151.8E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...4.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 2.5 BASED
ON A DEVELOPING TREND. PT AGREES. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...ZENG

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 06Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

今天晚间ASCAT风场扫描

乐正六边形

机构主观预报和部分模式客观预报

dgitg5266

As of 8:00 PM today, 09 April 2026, the Tropical Depression (formerly LPA 04a) has intensified into a Tropical Storm and is being monitored within the monitoring domain (TCID) of PAGASA.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析升至T2.5

TPPN10 PGTW 091519
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (SE OF GUAM)
B. 09/1500Z
C. 8.17N
D. 151.50E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

今天晚间OSCAT风场扫描