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发表于 2026-4-12 17:16
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JTWC/04W/#14/04-12 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR
014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.3N 150.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 398 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAVSTA GUAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
A COMPREHENSIVE DIAGNOSIS OF THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT REVEALS AN
EXCEPTIONALLY CONDUCIVE REGIME FOR INTENSIFICATION, CHARACTERIZED
BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A DEEPLY MOIST
TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). FURTHERMORE, A ROBUST, EFFICIENT RADIAL OUTFLOW STRUCTURE IS
BEING AUGMENTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WITH THE AXIS CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE
MORPHOLOGICAL RESPONSE TO THESE CONDITIONS, WITH SUPER TYPHOON
(STY) 04W (SINLAKU) ACHIEVING A NEAR-PERFECT SYMMETRY OF THE
CENTRAL EYE FEATURE. SURROUNDING THE 20 NM DIAMETER EYE, SIMILARLY A
COHESIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) IS OBSERVED. CONTINUOUS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) IS THEREFORE WITNESSED BY ADDING THE EYE
TEMPERATURE INCREASING TO 16 C TO THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PINPOINTED WITH HIGH FIDELITY BASED ON THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE AT 130 KTS, CONSIDERING THE AGENCIES DVORAK INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT ENVELOPE OF T6.0-T7.5, AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 127 TO 143 KTS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T7.5 - 155 KTS
KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 128 KTS AT 120311Z
CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 120530Z
CIMSS AIDT: 133 KTS AT 120530Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 128 KTS AT 120536Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 143 KTS AT 120530Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS: OUTFLOW IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE PERSISTENCE OF A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC REGIME IS EXPECTED TO FUEL ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH A PROJECTED PEAK INTENSITY OF
140-145 KTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS INTENSE PHASE WILL OCCUR
AS STY 04W ACCELERATES ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY, A
MOTION DRIVEN BY THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A NORTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. DUE TO THE
EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE WIND FIELD, GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. WHILE THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY PRIOR TO
TAU 24, THE WEAKENING TREND AFTERWARDS IS PREDICTED TO BE GRADUAL,
AS THE MAJORITY OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
FAVORABLE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE INCREASED
DISTANCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDING THE
SUPERCHARGED OUTFLOW AVENUE AT THE MOMENT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
DECREASED LEVELS OF 200 MB DIVERGENCE. AROUND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN ITS RECURVATURE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WILL ENCOUNTER A MODEST INCREASE IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS WELL AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, CONTRIBUTING TO
A STEADIER WEAKENING.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS IMPROVING
OWING TO A NOTABLE INCREASE IN AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMICAL MODELS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING PATTERN. WHILE
THE PREVIOUS CONCERN REGARDING A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
STILL EXISTS, MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SCENARIO WHERE THE
NORTHWARD-BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BECOMES THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM, FAVORING A CONSISTENT RECURVATURE. LONG-TERM
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HOWEVER, STILL ASSESSED AS LOW DUE TO A
250 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AROUND TAU 96, INDICATING UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMELINE OF STY 04W, ROUNDING THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE. SLIGHTLY INCREASED CERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE NEAR-TERM
TRACK GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF LESS THAN 80 NM
AMONG CONSENSUS MEMBERS AROUND THE TIME OF CPA TO TINIAN, AND MOST
SOLUTIONS CLUSTERED BETWEEN ROTA AND SAIPAN. NAVGEM REMAINS THE
PRIMARY OUTLIER STILL OFFERING TRACK SOUTHWEST OF ROTA. THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE TRACK SPREAD WITHOUT NAVGEM IS ESTIMATED AT 52
NM AROUND TAU 48. WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE HAFS SOLUTION AND IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE MULTI-MODEL MEAN WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, PROJECTING A 140-145
KTS PEAK PRIOR TO TAU 24. THIS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS, BUT IS SUPPORTED BY
A FEW REMAINING RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES, AS WELL AS HAFS. OF
NOTE, THE RI SIGNAL HAS DECREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING,
INDICATING THAT THE PEAK IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2026-4-12 17:18
