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发表于 2025-6-13 11:09
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JTWC/01W/#11/06-13 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-6-13 12:00 编辑
WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.3N 108.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 219 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT
DEEP-LAYERED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (WUTIP). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CENTER OF A CONVECTIVE
WRAPPING PRESENT IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, CONSISTENT WITH THE
RADAR DATA. THE SYSTEM HAS BENEFITED FROM PROLONGED TRANSIT OVER WARM
WATERS AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS 15-20 KT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THROUGHOUT
THE VERTICAL COLUMN, AS WELL AS STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, DRIVEN BY
INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 130000Z
CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 130000Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 55 KTS AT 122300Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 01W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE AXIS
OF A STR TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME,
THE LLCC IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HAINAN ISLAND
BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD, EVENTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL SLIGHTLY TO
THE WEST OF THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA. WHILE CROSSING THE WARM WATERS OF
THE GULF OF TONKIN, THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN MAXIMUM WIND
SPEED LEVELS, OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE, APPROACHING TYPHOON INTENSITY.
HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN WILL OFFSET THE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE IMPACTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION.
ADDITIONALLY, TS 01W WILL LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW SUPPORT OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ONCE TS 01W MAKES LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND CHINA
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATION,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD
CONSISTENCY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A MAXIMUM CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD OF 32 NM JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, INCREASING TO 96 NM BY TAU 72.
DETERMINISTIC GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER, FORECASTING A SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD PATH FOLLOWING THE LANDFALL. THIS DEVIATION IS ONLY 26 NM
FROM THE CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH ALL
MODELS PREDICTING MAINTAINED LEVELS OVER THE INITIAL 12-24 HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING. NOTABLE OUTLIER WITHIN THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS STILL NAVGEM-DRIVEN COAMPS-TC, PROJECTING PEAK INTENSITY
AROUND 75 KTS, OCCURRING AFTER LANDFALL, MAKING THIS GUIDANCE SCENARIO
UNLIKELY. JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ALIGN CLOSELY WITH MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, WITH HIGH AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
RESPECTIVELY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-6-13 11:12
