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发表于 2025-10-11 17:53
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JTWC/29W/#13/10-11 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (NAKRI) WARNING NR
013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 27.7N 131.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 185 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 29W (NAKRI) WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLCC). ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP
PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, ALTHOUGH A SMALL POCKET OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS KICKED UP AGAIN.
THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE (5-10 KTS), THE SMALL
SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
BEEN ON A WARMING TREND (-65 C TO -69 C). ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONTINUOUSLY MOIST VORTEX CORE, DESPITE DRY AIR
IMPINGING ON THE CIRCULATION FROM WEST AND EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC IDENTIFIED IN EIR AND CLOUD BANDS IDENTIFIABLE ON THE
ANIMATED DOPPLER RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE
FIXES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 110436Z
CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 110530Z
CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 110530Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 110436Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 38 KTS AT 110600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS NAKRI HAS BEGUN ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
HAVING COME BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE EAST AS ITS
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 72, WHILE ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY WARM SEA TEMPERATURES
(29-30 C) ALONG THE WAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RE-
STRENGTHENING THROUGH TAU 48, BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
COOLER SEA TEMPERATURES (26-27 C), AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE JET HELP
THE SYSTEM ALONG ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TS NAKRI IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE THE ETT BY TAU 96.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, AS WITNESSED BY A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF UNDER 30 NM UNTIL
TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, GUIDANCE IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAIN WITH
HOW FAR NORTH THE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL, AS IT COMPLETES THE ETT. THE
JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, PARTICULARLY IN REGARD TO A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAUS 48-72, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMELINESS DECREASES FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, PEAK INTENSITY GUIDANCE SPREAD IS CURRENTLY
AT 40 KTS, WITH THE MOST CONSERVATIVE ASSESSMENT FROM STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL MODELS, WHILE MOST AGGRESSIVE COAMPS-TS AND DETERMINISTIC
GFS REACH 90-95 KTS. THE JTWC FORECAST REFLECTS AN INTENSITY MAXIMUM
IN LINE WITH HAFS-A GUIDANCE, HOWEVER IT IS CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS IN REGARD TO THE TIMELINE OF INTENSIFICATION. THEREFORE,
THE FORECASTED INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-10-11 17:04
