迪戈加西亚东南强热带气旋第5号“格兰特”(03U/09S.Grant) - 逐渐西行 - MFR:110KT JTWC:120KT

pocketbox · 发表于 2025-12-30 14:15

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-12-30 15:10 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 300657
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4 S / 77.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/30 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2025/12/31 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2025/12/31 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85

60H: 2026/01/01 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

72H: 2026/01/02 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/03 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 110 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/04 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 85

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CONFIGURATION OF GRANT'S EYE IN INFRARED
IMAGING HAS IMPROVED, MAINLY OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS, WITH A NEW HOT
SPOT APPEARING IN THE EYE. REMAINING VERY SMALL IN SIZE (VALIDATED BY
THE LATEST RCM DATA AT 0013UTC), GRANT IS SENSITIVE TO THE SLIGHTEST
ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCE. IN THE ABSENCE OF REMAINING MICROWAVE DATA,
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS REMAINS THE SOURCE OF INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
REMAINS GLOBALLY STATIONARY WITH A T OF ORDER OF 5.5+ EVOLVING
SLIGHTLY UPWARDS BUT A CI REMAINING AT 6.0. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 100KT, REMAINING AT THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY: GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK THROUGH WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. FROM THURSDAY (NEW YEAR'S DAY)
ONWARDS, A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST TO NORTH-WEST AND A SLOWDOWN IN
SPEED ARE EXPECTED, SLIGHTLY MORE MARKED THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS SIGNIFICANT BEYOND THURSDAY,
WITH A TENDENCY TO MIGRATE TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY NORTHERN AND SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TRACK, A TREND FOLLOWED BY THE RSMC.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR NEARLY 24 HOURS (LOW SHEAR, GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE), ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN
AT THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, DESPITE SOME SLIGHT
FLUCTUATIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
WEDNESDAY, THE NORTHEAST SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO INTRUSIONS OF DRY
AIR AND A RAPID WEAKENING OF GRANT BELOW CYCLONE STATUS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND THEN TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE QUITE DISPERSED ABOUT THE PACE AND EXTENT OF WEAKENING
BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY, BUT ALSO IN A POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION
FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARDS. THE DIFFERENCE IN SCENARIOS IS CLOSELY
LINKED TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT, WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT
ESCAPE THE EFFECT OF SHEAR MORE CLEARLY. FOR THE MOMENT, THE RSMC IS
OPTING FOR NO REINTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH
IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

pocketbox · 发表于 2025-12-30 17:00

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、刘涛  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 12 月 30 日 18 时
“格兰特”向偏西方向移动

时  间: 30日14时（北京时）

海  域: 东南印度洋

命  名: “格兰特”，GRANT

中心位置:  南纬14.4度，东经77.2度

强度等级:  强热带气旋

最大风力: 16级，51米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压: 948百帕

参考位置: 距离科科斯群岛偏西方向约2140公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“格兰特”强度维持

预报结论: “格兰特”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐减弱

图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年12月30日14时00分）

“海利”向偏东方向移动

时  间: 30日14时（北京时）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “海利”，HAYLEY

中心位置:  南纬16.4度，东经122.1度

强度等级:  三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 12级，36米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 973百帕

参考位置: 距离西澳大利亚州布鲁姆偏北方向约165公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“海利”强度由10级加强到12级

预报结论: “海利”将以每小时16公里左右的速度向偏东方向移动，强度逐渐减弱

图2  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年12月30日14时00分）

觀雲趣 · 发表于 2025-12-30 19:54

https://science.nrlmry.navy.mil/geoips/tcweb4/storm/sh092026

pocketbox · 发表于 2025-12-30 20:05

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-12-30 21:05 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 301248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 75.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/31 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/31 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/01 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/01 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 75

60H: 2026/01/02 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/02 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/03 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/04 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE GRANT'S EYE CONFIGURATION HAS REMAINED
STABLE WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL CLOSE TO THE CENTRE AND VERY
COLD. GCOM-W DATA FROM 0844UTC SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE AT
ALTITUDE BUT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RING IN THE LOWER LAYERS, WHICH
MAY INDICATE A RAPID RESPONSE BY THE SYSTEM TO UNFAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES OR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE. IN
THIS CONTEXT, A CLOSE ANALYSIS BY DVORAK INDICATES AN INCREASE WITH
WIND ESTIMATES OF AROUND 105KT. THE LATEST LOCATIONS ALSO SHOW A
GRADUAL ACCELERATION IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT. GRANT THEREFORE
REMAINS AT THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A
POTENTIALLY RAPID RESPONSE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY.

THE PHILOSOPHY OF A TRACK REMAINING FAIRLY NORTHWARD PERSISTS. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTH-EAST,
GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FROM THURSDAY (NEW YEAR'S DAY) ONWARDS, A TURN TOWARDS THE
WEST TO NORTH-WEST AND A SLOWDOWN IN SPEED ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS
STILL SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS BEYOND THURSDAY, MAINLY
IN TERMS OF SPEED, BUT THE CONFIRMATION OF A TREND TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
NORTHERN AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRAJECTORY GIVES A LITTLE MORE VALIDITY
TO THE RSMC FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR NEARLY 12 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN
AT THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, DESPITE SOME POSSIBLE
SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE NORTHEAST SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND THEN BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND A RAPID WEAKENING OF GRANT BELOW CYCLONE
STATUS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN TO FILLING LOW STATUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW QUITE A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE PACE
AND EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY, BUT ALSO IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF A NEW INTENSIFICATION FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARDS, A
SCENARIO THAT IS NOW BEING RULED OUT. THE DIFFERENCE IN SCENARIOS IS
CLOSELY LINKED TO THE SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM MOVES, WHICH MAY OR
MAY NOT ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE MORE CLEARLY FROM THE EFFECT OF SHEARING
AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE RSMC PERSISTS IN
ITS VIEW THAT THERE WILL BE NO REINTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO PASS THROUGH IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE WITHIN 3 DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

Enceladus · 发表于 2025-12-30 22:16

Enceladus · 发表于 2025-12-30 22:26

看来是到不了马达加斯加

pocketbox · 发表于 2025-12-30 22:30

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-12-30 23:00 编辑

WTXS32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 14.7S 75.6E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 75.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.1S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.6S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.9S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.9S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.8S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.1S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.3S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 75.1E.
30DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 491
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301200Z IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310300Z AND 311500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

WDXS32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR
027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.7S 75.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 491 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (GRANT) HAS RETAINED ITS COMPACT
STRUCTURE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH
SPIRALING BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE FEATURE AS
DEPICTED VIA ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE TC HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS CLOUD
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED CLOSE TO -90 C. THE EYE HAS BEEN
VISIBLY TILTED AT TIMES AND BECAME CLOUD FILLED ONLY TO CLEAR AGAIN
AND ALIGN BETTER LATER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EVIDENT EYE FEATURE SEEN ON EIR IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND AGENCY FIXES WITH NO NEW WIND
SCATTEROMETRY OR SAR DATA SINCE THE 300013Z RCM-2 SAR PASS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
DEMS: T6.0 - 115 KTS
FMEE: T6.0 - 115 KTS
FIMP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 103 KTS AT 301030Z
CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 301230Z
CIMSS AIDT: 105 KTS AT 301230Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 96 KTS AT 301119Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 95 KTS AT 301230Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 09S IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL AFTER TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTERWARDS, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD
UNTIL TAU 96 WHEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WANE. A
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECASTED UNTIL TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM IS NOW
BATTLING THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. AFTER TAU 96 THE SECOND RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO STEER THE
SYSTEM INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AS SUCH THE END OF THE
FORECAST REFLECTS POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK SPREAD AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
UNDER 100 NM UNTIL TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48 NAVGEM FORECASTS A
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK APPARENTLY DISREGARDING THE
HANDOFF OF THE STEERING BETWEEN THE TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. THE JTWC
FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MULTI MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTER TAU 72 ACCOUNTING FOR THE
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PREFERRED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPREAD UP TO 45 KTS AT TAU 48 AND
CONTINUES TO SPREAD AFTERWARDS. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS REFLECT A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND UNTIL TAU 72. COAMPS-TC DISAGREES DEPICTING A
STRENGTHENING TREND AFTER TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECASTED INTENSITY
REFLECTS VALUES IN LINE WITH THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-12-31 04:20

WTIO30 FMEE 301838
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/30 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 74.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/31 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/31 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 75

48H: 2026/01/01 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/02 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/02 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/03 18 UTC: 14.2 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/04 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GRANT HAS GRADUALLY LOST ITS EYE CONFIGURATION
IN FAVOUR OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) CONFIGURATION. THE F16
MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1358Z STILL SHOWED A CLEAR SIGNATURE AT ALTITUDE
WITH A RESIDUAL EYE. AS GRANT IS A SMALL SYSTEM, IT IS SUBJECT TO
RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS IN RESPONSE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
SUCH AS INCREASES OR DECREASES IN SHEAR OR CHANGES IN INTERNAL
STRUCTURE. IN THIS CONTEXT, OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES ARE VERY
FLUCTUATING. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBER HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 5.5.
GRANT REMAINS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
ESTIMATED AT AROUND 100 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTH-EAST, GRANT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK UNTIL TOMORROW. FROM
THURSDAY (NEW YEAR'S DAY) ONWARDS, A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST TO
NORTH-WEST AND A SLOWDOWN IN SPEED ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS BEYOND THURSDAY, MAINLY IN
TERMS OF SPEED, BUT THE CONFIRMATION OF A TREND TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
NORTHERN AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRAJECTORY GIVES A LITTLE MORE VALIDITY
TO THE RSMC FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR 6 TO 12 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN AT
THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, DESPITE SOME POSSIBLE
SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
TOMORROW ONWARDS, THE NORTHEAST SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND THEN BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND A RAPID WEAKENING OF GRANT BELOW CYCLONE
STATUS IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEN TO FILLING LOW STATUS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW QUITE A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE PACE AND
EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY, BUT ALSO IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF A NEW INTENSIFICATION FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARDS, A
SCENARIO THAT IS NOW BEING RULED OUT. THE DIFFERENCE IN SCENARIOS IS
CLOSELY LINKED TO THE SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM MOVES, WHICH MAY OR
MAY NOT ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE MORE CLEARLY FROM THE EFFECT OF SHEARING
AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE RSMC PERSISTS IN
ITS VIEW THAT THERE WILL BE NO REINTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO PASS THROUGH IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE WITHIN 3 DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

pocketbox · 发表于 2025-12-31 08:30

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-12-31 09:35 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 310041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/5/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/31 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 73.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/31 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/01 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2026/01/01 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2026/01/02 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

60H: 2026/01/02 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85

72H: 2026/01/03 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/04 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

120H: 2026/01/05 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 120 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GRANT HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONFIGURATION AS A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). THE F18 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 2236Z
STILL SHOWS A CLEAR SIGNATURE AT ALTITUDE WITH AN EYE STILL PRESENT.
AS GRANT IS A SMALL SYSTEM, IT IS SUBJECT TO RAPID INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS IN RESPONSE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES SUCH AS INCREASES
OR DECREASES IN SHEAR OR CHANGES IN INTERNAL STRUCTURE. IT IS NOW IN
AN UNFAVOURABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, BUT ITS RELATIVELY RAPID MOVEMENT
COULD LIMIT ITS ATTENUATION, AS SHOWN BY THE TEMPORARY APPEARANCE OF
AN EYE IN IR IMAGERY. MOST OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES
(ADT/AIDT/DPRINT) HAVE DECREASED ITS INTENSITY. ACCORDING TO CMRS
ESTIMATES, GRANT REMAINS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 90 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTH-EAST, GRANT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS. FROM THURSDAY (NEW YEAR'S DAY), A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND A SLOWDOWN IN SPEED ARE EXPECTED. THE CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES, WHICH REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY DISPERSED BEYOND THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBLE
REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM ENVISAGED BY CERTAIN MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVOURABLE:
THE NORTHEAST SHEAR HAS STRENGTHENED AND SHOULD BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL
AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND A
RAPID WEAKENING OF GRANT BELOW CYCLONE STATUS IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
THEN TO FILLING LOW STATUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW
QUITE A LOT OF VARIATION IN THE PACE AND EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING
BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY, BUT ALSO IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW
INTENSIFICATION FROM NEXT SUNDAY ONWARDS, A SCENARIO THAT IS NOW
BEING RULED OUT. THE DIFFERENCE IN SCENARIOS IS CLOSELY LINKED TO THE
SPEED AT WHICH THE SYSTEM MOVES, WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT ALLOW IT TO
ESCAPE MORE CLEARLY FROM THE EFFECT OF SHEARING AND THE INTRUSION OF
DRY AIR. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE RSMC PERSISTS IN ITS VIEW THAT THERE
WILL BE NO REINTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH IN
A MUCH WEAKER STATE WITHIN 3 DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-12-31 10:14

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-12-31 12:00 编辑

WTXS32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 73.1E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 73.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.7S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.3S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.3S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.9S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.3S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.5S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.3S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 72.6E.
31DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310000Z IS 957 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) FINAL WARNING
(WTXS31 PGTW).//
NNNN

WDXS32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR
028//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.0S 73.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 475 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WITH A FILLED EYE, THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
WARM SPOT LEFT OVER WHERE THE EYE WOULD BE AT. THE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLY COMPACT AS IT FENDS OFF THE INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. A 302231Z F18 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALED AN EXTREMELY SMALL INNER-CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT
MEASURED TO BE ABOUT 35 NM IN DIAMETER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SLIGHT WARM SPOT IN
ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 09S
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
DEMS: T6.0 - 115 KTS
FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS
FIMP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 98 KTS AT 302330Z
CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 310030Z
CIMSS AIDT: 86 KTS AT 310030Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 118 KTS AT 302231Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 102 KTS AT 310030Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 09S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
CENTERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 24. NEAR TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY BE PLACED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS
THE STR PROPAGATES TO THE EAST, AWAY FROM THE VORTEX. NEAR TAU 48,
A SECOND STR WILL BEGIN BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, CAUSING 09S TO MAKE
AN EQUATORWARD JOG THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SECOND STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGARDING INTENSITY, 09S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU
48 AS NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS AROUND 20 KTS. ADDITIONALLY, DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH WILL FURTHER AID IN WEAKENING THE
SYSTEM. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW 09S QUICKLY WEAKENING TO AROUND 40
KTS AT TAU 48, WHICH IS DEFINITELY IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES.
HOWEVER, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE WIND FIELD, WHICH COULD
CACOON ITSELF FROM THE DRY AIR. NEAR TAU 84, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO BELOW 10 KTS, ALLOWING FOR 09S TO BEGIN REINTENSIFYING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT AU
72 IS AROUND 230 NM, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE NORTHERNMOST MEMBER AND
GALWEM BEING THE SOUTHERNMOST MEMBER. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS FURTHER
DIVERGE DUE TO DIFFERING INTERACTIONS WITH THE SECOND STR.
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO OVER 400 NM AND ALONG TRACK SPREAD
ALSO CONSIDERABLY INCREASES TO AROUND 320 NM AT TAU 120. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE SLOWEST MODEL WHILE GDM AND GALWEM ARE THE
FASTEST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN HEDGED CLOSER TO THE GDM THROUGH
TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS ONE SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER IN
COAMPS-TC. ON ONE HAND, HAFS-A AND HWRF BOTH QUICKLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO 40 KTS AT TAU 48 AND MAINTAIN 40 KTS THROUGH TAU 96. ON
THE OTHER HAND, COAMPS-TC KEEPS THE SYSTEM ABOVE 65 KTS AND BEGINS
REINTENSIFYING AFTERWARD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN ABOUT 10-15 KTS
HIGHER THAN HAFS-A AND HWRF AFTERWARD. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW THEREAFTER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

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[值得关注] 迪戈加西亚东南强热带气旋第5号“格兰特”(03U/09S.Grant) - 逐渐西行 - MFR:110KT JTWC:120KT

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