西澳北部近海三级强热带气旋“米切尔”(21U/20S.Mitchell) - 横穿澳大利亚北部，西行出海发展 - BoM:75KT JTWC:85KT

ygsj24

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Karratha to Onslow areas, including Mardie, are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 26
Issued at 5:07 am WST on Sunday 8 February 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is to the west-northwest of Dampier and
continuing to move southwest.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Roebourne to Cape Cuvier, including Karratha, Onslow, and
Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara to include
Pannawonica.

Watch zone: South of Cape Cuvier to Wooramel Roadhouse, including Carnarvon and
adjacent inland areas.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 5:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.3 degrees South 116.0 degrees East,
estimated to be 100 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and 175 kilometres
north northeast of Onslow.
Movement: west southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is at category 3 intensity and is
expected to maintain its strength as it continues to track towards the
southwest during the day today.

Mitchell is forecast to move closer to Onslow during the afternoon while
remaining over water, with possible landfall between Exmouth and Onslow later
today or early Monday morning.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 195 km/h are possible along the coast west of
Dampier to Mardie this morning, if Mitchell takes a more southerly track. Very
destructive wind gusts may develop close to the coast near Onslow in the
afternoon and extend along the coast to Exmouth as the core of Mitchell
approaches in the evening.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are possible to the west of Dampier to Cape
Preston this morning, extending westwards along the coast towards Onslow during
the afternoon, and later extending to Exmouth in the evening.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring along coastal areas
between Roebourne and Mardie, possibly extending inland to Pannawonica later in
the morning. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend
west to Onslow and Exmouth in the afternoon and evening, and then extend
further south to Cape Cuvier and inland parts of the western Pilbara tonight.

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is
likely over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on
Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may
occur around the west Pilbara coast around Onslow later today.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the west Pilbara coast, including
Onslow and Exmouth. Tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark
this afternoon and again on Monday morning's high tide, causing FLOODING of
low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Sunday 08 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 am February 8	3	20.3S	116.0E	30
+6hr	11 am February 8	3	20.8S	115.3E	50
+12hr	5 pm February 8	3	21.3S	114.8E	70
+18hr	11 pm February 8	3	21.9S	114.3E	80
+24hr	5 am February 9	3	22.6S	113.9E	90
+36hr	5 pm February 9	1	24.3S	113.7E	115
+48hr	5 am February 10	tropical low	26.0S	114.8E	145
+60hr	5 pm February 10	tropical low	27.3S	117.0E	190
+72hr	5 am February 11	tropical low	27.7S	118.8E	195

pocketbox

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0050 UTC 08/02/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 20.6S
Longitude: 115.7E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (238 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Central Pressure: 969 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 75 nm (140 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 65 nm (120 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 75 nm (140 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  08/0600: 21.0S 115.1E:     025 (050):  065  (120):  969
+12:  08/1200: 21.6S 114.6E:     035 (070):  065  (120):  969
+18:  08/1800: 22.2S 114.2E:     045 (085):  065  (120):  968
+24:  09/0000: 23.0S 113.9E:     050 (095):  055  (100):  976
+36:  09/1200: 24.7S 114.0E:     065 (120):  045  (085):  983
+48:  10/0000: 26.4S 115.4E:     080 (150):  030  (055):  993
+60:  10/1200: 27.4S 117.5E:     110 (205):  025  (045):  996
+72:  11/0000: 27.7S 119.3E:     110 (200):  025  (045):  995
+96:  12/0000:             :              :            :     
+120: 13/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is maintaining Category 3 intensity as it
tracks southwest offshore of the Pilbara coast.  

Satellite imagery shows a large expanse of cold cloud with a tight temperature
gradient on the eastern side. Microwave imagery shows deep cold convection
wrapping three quarters around the centre with an erosion of the eye wall on
the eastern side. Mitchell is clearly visible on the Karratha radar and is
located with good confidence.  

Operational intensity is set at 65 kn, consistent with the subjective Dvorak
estimate and supported by objective guidance.  

Dvorak Analysis: using embedded centre pattern with a white surround, yielding
a DT of 5.0. The MET is 4.5, based on the 24-hour Dvorak development trend,
with a PT adjustment to 4.0. FT/CI are 4.0/4.5.  
Objective guidance (1-minute mean) at 2300 UTC indicates ADT 82 kn, AiDT 80 kn,
DPRINT 68 kn, DMINT 70 kn (2122 UTC), and SATCON 68 kn (2050 UTC).  

CIMSS upper-level wind analysis estimates deep-layer vertical wind shear around
19 kn (18 UTC) from the NE. Mitchell remains in a generally favourable
environment, there is some dry air to the north and east but this does not seem
to be affecting the system yet. Upper-level divergence remains strong,
particularly on the southern side of the circulation, supported by persistent
poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures are 28  29   C along the forecast
track. The intensity is forecast to remain at 65 knots as it approaches the NW
Cape and then begin to weaken due to land interaction and cooler SSTs as it
moves further south during Monday and Tuesday. The system is expected to move
southeast and weaken over land on Tuesday.

Mitchell is being steered southwestward along the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge located to the southeast. A mid-level trough is approaching
Western Australia from the Indian Ocean during Sunday and this is expected to
turn Mitchell on a more southerly path. During Monday the trough will begin to
steer Mitchell to the southeast and move it across inland WA. The timing of the
turn to the south will determine where Mitchell makes landfall, at present it
may cross the far west Pilbara coast but there is still the possibility the
system stays west of the coast over water during Monday. Ensembles indicate
that if Mitchell moves offshore of the upper west coast it will still be
steered southeast and cross the upper west coast rather than track further
south.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0730 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Onslow areas, including Mardie, are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 29
Issued at 8:02 am WST on Sunday 8 February 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) continues to move southwest off the west Pilbara coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Karratha to Cape Cuvier, including Karratha, Onslow, and Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne, including Pannawonica.

Watch Zone
Carnarvon to Denham, and extending to inland parts of the western Gascoyne, including Gascoyne Junction.

Cancelled Zone
Roebourne

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.6 degrees South 115.7 degrees East, estimated to be 135 kilometres north northeast of Onslow and 225 kilometres northeast of Exmouth.

Movement: west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is at category 3 intensity and is expected to maintain its strength as it continues to track towards the southwest during the day today.

Mitchell is forecast to move closer to Onslow during the afternoon while remaining over water, with possible landfall between Exmouth and Onslow later today or early Monday morning.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 185 km/h are possible along the coast from Cape Preston to Mardie later this morning if Mitchell takes a more southerly track. VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 195 km/h may develop close to the coast near Onslow in the afternoon and extend along the coast to Exmouth as the core of Mitchell approaches in the evening.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are possible over coastal areas from the west of Dampier through to Mardie in the morning, extending westwards along the coast towards Onslow during the afternoon, and later extending to Exmouth in the evening. Destructive wind gusts may extend further down to coast to Coral Bay on Monday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring along coastal areas between Karratha and Mardie, possibly extending inland to Pannawonica later in the morning. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend west to Onslow and Exmouth in the afternoon and evening, and then extend further south to Coral Bat and inland parts of the western Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne tonight. During Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne, possibly developing over Carnarvon, Denham and Gascoyne Junction during Monday afternoon and evening.

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may occur around the west Pilbara coast around Onslow this afternoon and extending to Exmouth and Ningaloo, including the North West Cape, later this evening.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the west Pilbara coast, including Onslow and Exmouth. Tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark this afternoon and again on Monday morning's high tide, causing FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon, with Monday afternoon's high tide.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Sunday 08 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am February 8	3	20.6S	115.7E	30
+6hr	2 pm February 8	3	21.0S	115.1E	50
+12hr	8 pm February 8	3	21.6S	114.6E	70
+18hr	2 am February 9	3	22.2S	114.2E	85
+24hr	8 am February 9	2	23.0S	113.9E	95
+36hr	8 pm February 9	1	24.7S	114.0E	120
+48hr	8 am February 10	tropical low	26.4S	115.4E	150
+60hr	8 pm February 10	tropical low	27.4S	117.5E	205
+72hr	8 am February 11	tropical low	27.7S	119.3E	200

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 009   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 115.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 115.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 21.8S 114.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 23.3S 113.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 25.3S 114.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 27.0S 115.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 115.3E.
08FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
127 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
080000Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 080300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING
   
4. NR 009//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 20.7S 115.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 127 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WITH SLIGHTLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
    
19. PAST 6 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE RADAR EYE IN ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY
    
20. FROM LEARMONTH SHOWS A DISTINCT WEAKNESS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE,
    
21. HINTING AT A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. THE PERSISTENT DRY AIR
    
22. ENTRAINMENT AND MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEAR
    
23. TO BE TAKING A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
    
24. BARROW ISLAND AIRPORT REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 KTS
    
25. AND A PRESSURE MINIMUM OF 977 MB AS THE CENTER PASSED OVER THE
    
26. ISLAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
    
27. ON THE ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS
    
28. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
    
29. AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
30. ANALYSIS NOW INDICATES THAT 20S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
31. ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
32. OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
    
33. SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
    
34. TEMPERATURES.
    
35. 
    
36. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
37. 
    
38. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
39. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
    
40. 
    
41. 
    
42. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
43.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
44.    APRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
45.    CIMSS ADT: 82 KTS AT 080000Z
    
46.    CIMSS AIDT: 80 KTS AT 080000Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-MINT: 70 KTS AT 072122Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 66 KTS AT 080020Z
    
49. 
    
50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
51.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
52.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
53.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
54.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND NORTH
    
55. 
    
56. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
57.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
58.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
59.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
60. 
    
61. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
62. 
    
63. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
64. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
65. 
    
66. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD,
    
67. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12. 20S IS
    
68. FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE EXMOUTH GULF, SOUTH OF
    
69. LEARMONTH, RIGHT AROUND TAU 18. AFTER TAU 18, 20S WILL TURN
    
70. SOUTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR WITH
    
71. INCREASING TRACK SPEEDS. BY TAU 36, 20S WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE RIDGE
    
72. AXIS AND WILL COMMENCE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AS IT TRACKS FURTHER
    
73. INLAND INTO WESTERN AUSTRALIA. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 20S IS
    
74. FORECAST TO CONTINUE MARGINALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
    
75. IT ENTERS THE EXMOUTH GULF DUE TO THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
    
76. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. LANDFALL INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND
    
77. 65-70 KTS. AFTER LANDFALL, 20S WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN IN
    
78. RESPONSE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND
    
79. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 48,
    
80. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF SHARK BAY.
    
81. 
    
82. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
    
83. AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A
    
84. FURTHER WESTWARD TRACK. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM, THERE IS A MERE 25 NM
    
85. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48, WITH AN ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF AROUND
    
86. 100 NM. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE ALTERED
    
87. CONSENSUS (REMOVING NAVGEM) WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
88. AGREES ON STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO
    
89. SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO
    
90. THE CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES
    
91. REGARDING TERRAIN EFFECTS AND THE CORRESPONDING WEAKENING TREND OVER
    
92. LAND.
    
93. 
    
94. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
95.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
96.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
97. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：钟晖子、刘涛  签发：张玲  2026 年 02 月 08 日 10 时
“米切尔”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 2月8日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “米切尔”，MITCHELL

中心位置: 南纬20.5度，东经115.7度

强度等级: 强热带气旋（3级）

最大风力: 12级，33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 969百帕

参考位置: 距离西澳大利亚州卡拉萨西偏北方向约120公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“米切尔”由10级加强为12级

预报结论: “米切尔”将以每小时约10公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度维持。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月8日08时00分）

ygsj24

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Onslow areas, including Mardie, are requested to USE
the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 32
Issued at 11:12 am WST on Sunday 8 February 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) continues to move southwest and is
approaching the far west Pilbara coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Cape Preston to Cape Cuvier, including Onslow, and Exmouth, and
extending inland through the western Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne, including
Pannawonica.

Watch zone: Carnarvon to Denham, and extending to inland parts of the western
Gascoyne, including Gascoyne Junction.

Cancelled zone: Karratha and Dampier.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 11:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 20.7 degrees South 115.3 degrees East,
estimated to be 105 kilometres north of Onslow and 180 kilometres northeast of
Exmouth.
Movement: west southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) is at category 3 intensity and is
expected to maintain its strength as it continues to track towards the
southwest during the day today.

Mitchell is forecast to move closer to the far west Pilbara coast during the
afternoon while remaining over water, with possible landfall to the west of
Onslow later today or early Monday morning.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 170 km/h may develop close to the coast near
Onslow in the afternoon and extend along the coast to Exmouth as the core of
Mitchell approaches in the evening.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are possible over coastal areas from the
west of Cape Preston through to Onslow, and later extending to Exmouth in the
evening. Destructive wind gusts may extend further down to coast to Coral Bay
on Monday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring along coastal areas
between Dampier and Mardie, possibly extending inland to Pannawonica for a
brief period during the middle of the day. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to
120 km/h are forecast to extend west to Onslow and Exmouth in the afternoon and
evening, and then extend further south to Coral Bay and inland parts of the
western Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne tonight. During Monday, GALES should
extend further south through the western Gascoyne, possibly developing over
Carnarvon, Denham and Gascoyne Junction during Monday afternoon and evening.

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is
likely over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on
Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may
occur around the west Pilbara coast around Onslow this afternoon and extending
to Exmouth and Ningaloo, including the North West Cape, later this evening.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the west Pilbara coast, including
Onslow and Exmouth. Tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark
this afternoon and again on Monday morning's high tide, causing FLOODING of
low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne
coast, including Carnarvon, with Monday afternoon's high tide.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm AWST Sunday 08 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 am February 8	3	20.7S	115.3E	30
+6hr	5 pm February 8	3	21.3S	114.7E	50
+12hr	11 pm February 8	3	21.8S	114.3E	70
+18hr	5 am February 9	2	22.5S	114.0E	80
+24hr	11 am February 9	2	23.4S	113.8E	90
+36hr	11 pm February 9	1	25.3S	114.5E	105
+48hr	11 am February 10	tropical low	27.1S	116.4E	135
+60hr	11 pm February 10	tropical low	27.8S	118.8E	155
+72hr	11 am February 11	tropical low	27.0S	120.2E	200

ygsj24

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Onslow area are requested to USE the Standard
Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 35
Issued at 2:13 pm WST on Sunday 8 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) has weakened slightly as it approaches the far
west Pilbara coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Onslow to Carnarvon, including Exmouth, and extending inland
through the western Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne.

Watch zone: Wooramel Roadhouse to Overlander Roadhouse, including Denham, and
extending to inland parts of the western Gascoyne, including Gascoyne Junction.

Cancelled zone: Mardie.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 21.2 degrees South 114.7 degrees East,
estimated to be 65 kilometres northwest of Onslow and 100 kilometres northeast
of Exmouth.
Movement: southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) has weakened slightly and is now at category 2
intensity. It is expected to maintain its strength as it continues to track
towards the southwest during this afternoon and evening.

Mitchell is forecast to approach the far west Pilbara coast during the
afternoon while remaining over water, with possible landfall close to Exmouth
late this evening or early Monday morning.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are possible over coastal areas near Onslow
this afternoon, and are expected to develop over North West Cape (including
Exmouth) this evening. Destructive wind gusts may extend further down the coast
to Coral Bay on Monday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring along coastal areas
from west of Mardie to Exmouth. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are
forecast to extend further south to Coral Bay and inland parts of the western
Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne later this evening or overnight. During
Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne,
possibly developing over Carnarvon, Denham and Gascoyne Junction during Monday
afternoon and evening.

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is
likely over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on
Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may
occur around the west Pilbara coast around Onslow from later this afternoon,
extending to Exmouth and Ningaloo, including the North West Cape, later this
evening.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the west Pilbara coast, including
Onslow and Exmouth. Tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark
this afternoon and again on Monday morning's high tide, causing FLOODING of
low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne
coast, including Carnarvon, with Monday afternoon's high tide.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Sunday 08 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm February 8	2	21.2S	114.7E	30
+6hr	8 pm February 8	2	21.8S	114.2E	50
+12hr	2 am February 9	2	22.4S	113.8E	70
+18hr	8 am February 9	2	23.1S	113.6E	85
+24hr	2 pm February 9	2	24.1S	113.6E	90
+36hr	2 am February 10	1	26.0S	114.6E	115
+48hr	2 pm February 10	tropical low	27.6S	116.7E	150
+60hr	2 am February 11	tropical low	27.8S	118.9E	165
+72hr	2 pm February 11	tropical low	27.0S	120.3E	220

1. AXAU01 APRF 080637
   
2. IDW27600
   
3. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
4. ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
5. AT: 0637 UTC 08/02/2026
   
6. NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE MITCHELL
   
7. IDENTIFIER: 21U
   
8. DATA AT: 0600 UTC
   
9. LATITUDE: 21.2S
   
10. LONGITUDE: 114.7E
    
11. LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 15NM (30 KM)
    
12. MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTHWEST (235 DEG)
    
13. SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 9 KNOTS (16 KM/H)
    
14. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 60 KNOTS (110 KM/H)
    
15. MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 85 KNOTS (155 KM/H)
    
16. CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
    
17. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 65 NM (120 KM)
    
18. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 55 NM (100 KM)
    
19. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 65 NM (120 KM)
    
20. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 65 NM (120 KM)
    
21. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 30 NM (55 KM)
    
22. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 35 NM (65 KM)
    
23. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 30 NM (55 KM)
    
24. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 30 NM (55 KM)
    
25. RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
    
26. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 25 NM (45 KM)
    
27. DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T3.5/4.0/W0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
    
28. PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1000 HPA
    
29. RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 100 NM (185 KM)
    
30. FORECAST DATA
    
31. DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
    
32. (UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
    
33. +06:  08/1200: 21.8S 114.2E:     025 (050):  060  (110):  974
    
34. +12:  08/1800: 22.4S 113.8E:     035 (070):  055  (100):  976
    
35. +18:  09/0000: 23.1S 113.6E:     045 (085):  050  (095):  980
    
36. +24:  09/0600: 24.1S 113.6E:     050 (090):  050  (095):  980
    
37. +36:  09/1800: 26.0S 114.6E:     060 (115):  040  (075):  986
    
38. +48:  10/0600: 27.6S 116.7E:     080 (150):  030  (055):  993
    
39. +60:  10/1800: 27.8S 118.9E:     090 (165):  025  (045):  995
    
40. +72:  11/0600: 27.0S 120.3E:     120 (220):  020  (035):  998
    
41. +96:  12/0600:             :              :            :
    
42. +120: 13/0600:             :              :            :
    
43. REMARKS:
    
44. TROPICAL CYCLONE MITCHELL HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND IS
    
45. MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE WEST PILBARA COAST.
    
46. 
    
47. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LARGE CONVECTIVE BLOW UPS OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN
    
48. SIDE OF THE SYSTEM HOWEVER IT STILL HAS THE APPEARANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY
    
49. SHEAR WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN SIDE. A RECENT MICROWAVE
    
50. IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP COLD CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. MITCHELL IS BEING
    
51. LOCATED ON THE LEARMONTH AND KARRATHA RADARS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
    
52. 
    
53. OPERATIONAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 60 KN, CONSISTENT WITH THE
    
54. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE AND SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.
    
55. 
    
56. DVORAK ANALYSIS: USING CURVED BAND PATTERN GIVES A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.5,
    
57. BASED ON A 24-HOUR DVORAK TREND OF W-, NO PT ADJUSTMENT. FT/CI ARE 3.5/4.0.
    
58. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (1-MINUTE MEAN) AT 0520 UTC INDICATES ADT 69 KN, AIDT 73 KN,
    
59. DPRINT 59 KN, DMINT 70 KN (0224 UTC), AND NO RECENT SATCON.
    
60. 
    
61. CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATES DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND
    
62. 18 KN (00 UTC) FROM THE NE. MITCHELL REMAINS IN A GENERALLY FAVOURABLE
    
63. ENVIRONMENT, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 28  29   C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
    
64. AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS STRONG, PARTICULARLY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
    
65. THE CIRCULATION, SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY IS
    
66. FORECAST TO REMAIN AT AROUND 60 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES THE NW CAPE AND THEN
    
67. BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND COOLER SSTS AS IT MOVES FURTHER
    
68. SOUTH DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
    
69. WEAKEN OVER LAND ON TUESDAY.
    
70. 
    
71. MITCHELL IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
    
72. MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING
    
73. WESTERN AUSTRALIA FROM THE INDIAN OCEAN DURING SUNDAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
    
74. TURN MITCHELL ON A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH. DURING MONDAY THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
    
75. STEER MITCHELL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE IT ACROSS INLAND WA. THE TIMING OF THE
    
76. TURN TO THE SOUTH WILL DETERMINE WHERE MITCHELL MAKES LANDFALL, AT PRESENT IT
    
77. MAY CROSS THE FAR WEST PILBARA COAST BUT THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY THE
    
78. SYSTEM STAYS WEST OF THE COAST OVER WATER DURING MONDAY. ENSEMBLES INDICATE
    
79. THAT IF MITCHELL MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE UPPER WEST COAST IT WILL STILL BE
    
80. STEERED SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE UPPER WEST COAST RATHER THAN TRACK FURTHER
    
81. SOUTH.
    
82. 
    
83. COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
    
84. ==
    
85. THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 08/1330 UTC.=

复制代码

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 010   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z --- NEAR 21.3S 114.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 114.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 22.6S 113.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 24.4S 113.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 26.6S 114.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 28.5S 118.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 114.4E. 08FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(GEZANI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 080900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING
   
4. NR 010//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.3S 114.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 66 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
    
13. AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. AFTER REACHING PEAK INTENSITY APPROXIMATELY 18 HOURS AGO, TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE (TC) 20S (MITCHELL) HAS STEADILY WEAKENED AS IT HAS
    
20. TRAVERSED SOUTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIAN
    
21. COASTLINE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
    
22. REDEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE, WITH DEEP
    
23. CONVECTION WRAPPING UPSHEAR AND ONCE AGAIN OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
    
24. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM LEARMONTH
    
25. DEPICTS A RELATIVELY BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE WHICH REMAINS
    
26. OPEN ON THE EASTERN, UPSHEAR QUADRANT. DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTING
    
27. OFFSHORE IS ALSO PENETRATING THE INNER-CORE FROM THE EAST,
    
28. CONTRIBUTING TO THE ERODED EYEWALL STRUCTURE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
    
29. THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
30. BASED ON GROUND-BASED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
    
31. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
    
32. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW.
    
33. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. WHILE VERTICAL
    
34. WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS IN THE LOW RANGE (10-15 KNOTS), MID-LEVEL
    
35. SHEAR, AS ESTIMATED FROM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM
    
36. THE BROOME UPPER-AIR DATA, IS IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE (25-30
    
37. KNOTS). THEREFORE, WHILE SSTS REMAIN CONDUCIVE AND OUTFLOW ALOFT IS
    
38. STRONGLY DIVERGENT, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY
    
39. ALIGNED AND AXISYMMETRIC VORTEX.
    
40. 
    
41. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
42. 
    
43. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
44. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.
    
45. 
    
46. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
47.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
48.    DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
49.    APRF: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
50.    CIMSS SATCON: 72 KTS AT 080530Z
    
51.    CIMSS ADT: 69 KTS AT 080530Z
    
52.    CIMSS AIDT: 72 KTS AT 080530Z
    
53.    CIMSS D-MINT: 72 KTS AT 080607Z
    
54.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 60 KTS AT 080600Z
    
55. 
    
56. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
57.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
58.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
59.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
60.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE EASTERN AND
    
61. NORTHERN FLANKS. MODERATE MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
    
62. 
    
63. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
64.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
65.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
66.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
67. 
    
68. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
69. 
    
70. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
71. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
72. 
    
73. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 20S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
    
74. THE DAY, PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF BARROW ISLAND SHORTLY AFTER
    
75. THE 0000Z HOUR AND CONTINUING TOWARDS THE EXMOUTH PENINSULA. THE
    
76. STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS EXTENDED FURTHER WEST THAN ORIGINALLY
    
77. ANTICIPATED, RESULTING IN A TRACK WHICH REACHES FURTHER WEST BEFORE
    
78. RECURVING SOUTHWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATES LANDFALL
    
79. OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWEST CAPE AREA,
    
80. WITH THE VORTEX CENTER TRANSITING DOWN THE WESTERN COAST OF THE
    
81. EXMOUTH PENINSULA AND BRIEFLY RE-EMERGING OVER WATER TO THE WEST OF
    
82. CORAL BAY. THE SYSTEM WILL DECELERATE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
    
83. AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE BY TAU
    
84. 24, THEN ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR
    
85. OVER AUSTRALIA AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
    
86. THE SOUTHWEST. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 20S IS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
    
87. WEAKENING UNDER MARGINAL CONDITIONS AS IT APPROACHES LANDFALL. HE
    
88. RECENT PULSATION OF DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS WRAPPING UPSHEAR,
    
89. SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN STEADY-STATE INTENSITY
    
90. THROUGH LANDFALL, BEFORE THE ONSET OF MORE RAPID CYCLOLYSIS AS IT
    
91. TURNS SOUTHWARD. WHILE THE LLCC MAY TEMPORARILY MOVE BACK OVER WATER,
    
92. ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND, INCREASING VWS, AND ENHANCED DRY AIR
    
93. ENTRAINMENT OFF THE CONTINENT WILL INHIBIT RE-INTENSIFICATION, AND
    
94. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
    
95. INLAND PERMANENTLY AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
    
96. DUE TO SURFACE FRICTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND DRAMATICALLY HIGHER
    
97. SHEAR VALUES, DISSIPATING OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA BY TAU 48.
    
98. 
    
99. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE, AND ARTIFICIAL
    
100. INTELLIGENCE (AI) MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
     
101. TRACK SCENARIO, WITH MINIMAL CROSS- OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THE
     
102. WESTERNMOST OF THE TRACKERS (EGRR) TAKES THE SYSTEM APPROXIMATELY
     
103. 12NM OFF THE WESTERN COAST, WHILE THE EASTERNMOST TRACKER (ECMWF)
     
104. KEEPS THE SYSTEM APPROXIMATELY 10NM INLAND AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE
     
105. AXIS; ALL MODEL TRACKERS KEEP THE SYSTEM EAST OF SHARK BAY. THE JTWC
     
106. FORECAST IS POSITIONED CONSISTENT WITH THE AI CONSENSUS MEAN,
     
107. COINCIDENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WITH HIGH
     
108. CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH ALL
     
109. AVAILABLE MODELS INDICATING STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING AB INITIO,
     
110. CONTINUING THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE JTWC FORECAST IS ALIGNED WITH THE
     
111. HAFS-A MODEL TREND LINE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
     
112. 
     
113. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
114.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
115.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
     
116. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：钟晖子、刘涛  签发：张玲  2026 年 02 月 08 日 18 时
“米切尔”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 2月8日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “米切尔”，MITCHELL

中心位置: 南纬21.2度，东经114.7度

强度等级: 热带气旋（2级）

最大风力: 11级，30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 974百帕

参考位置: 距离西澳大利亚州卡拉萨西南方向约235公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“米切尔”由11级加强为12级，又减弱为11级

预报结论: “米切尔”将以每小时约15-20公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度维持。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月8日14时00分）

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Onslow and Exmouth areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 38
Issued at 5:00 pm WST on Sunday 8 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2, impacting Onslow and Exmouth regions as it moves towards the North West Cape this evening then down the Ningaloo coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Onslow to south of Carnarvon, including Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne.

Watch Zone
South of Carnarvon to Overlander Roadhouse, including Denham, and extending to inland parts of the western Gascoyne, including Gascoyne Junction.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 5:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 21.4 degrees South 114.2 degrees East, estimated to be 95 kilometres west northwest of Onslow and 60 kilometres north of Exmouth.

Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2 intensity, is expected to maintain its strength as it moves southwest towards the North West Cape this evening. Mitchell will then move south near the Ningaloo and Carnarvon coasts on Monday.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are occurring over coastal areas west of Onslow, and are expected to develop over the North West Cape (including Exmouth) this afternoon and evening. Destructive wind gusts may extend further down the coast to Coral Bay on Monday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring along coastal areas from west of Mardie to Exmouth. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend further south to Coral Bay and inland parts of the western Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne later this evening or overnight. During Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne, possibly developing over Carnarvon, Denham and Gascoyne Junction during Monday afternoon and evening.

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may occur around the west Pilbara coast around Exmouth and Ningaloo, including the North West Cape, during this afternoon and overnight into Monday morning.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the west Pilbara coast, including Onslow and Exmouth. Tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark this afternoon and again on Monday morning's high tide, causing FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon, with Monday afternoon's high tide.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm AWST Sunday 08 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 pm February 8	2	21.4S	114.2E	30
+6hr	11 pm February 8	2	22.0S	113.8E	50
+12hr	5 am February 9	2	22.8S	113.6E	70
+18hr	11 am February 9	2	23.8S	113.4E	80
+24hr	5 pm February 9	2	24.9S	113.6E	85
+36hr	5 am February 10	tropical low	26.9S	115.1E	105
+48hr	5 pm February 10	tropical low	28.7S	118.3E	130
+60hr	5 am February 11	tropical low	28.5S	121.0E	125
+72hr	5 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Onslow, Exmouth, Ningaloo, and Coral Bay areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 39
Issued at 5:58 pm WST on Sunday 8 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2, impacting the Onslow and Exmouth regions as it moves towards the North West Cape this evening then down the Ningaloo coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Onslow to south of Carnarvon, including Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne.

Watch Zone
South of Carnarvon to Overlander Roadhouse, including Denham, and extending to inland parts of the western Gascoyne, including Gascoyne Junction.

Cancelled Zone
Barrow Island.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 6:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 21.4 degrees South 114.1 degrees East, estimated to be 110 kilometres west northwest of Onslow and 60 kilometres north of Exmouth.

Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2 intensity, is expected to maintain its strength as it moves southwest towards the North West Cape this evening. Mitchell will then move south near the Ningaloo and Carnarvon coasts on Monday.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are occurring over coastal areas west of Onslow, and are expected to develop over the North West Cape (including Exmouth) this afternoon and evening. Destructive wind gusts may extend further down the coast to Coral Bay on Monday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring along coastal areas from west of Mardie to Exmouth. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend further south to Coral Bay and inland parts of the western Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne later this evening or overnight. During Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne, possibly developing over Carnarvon, Denham and Gascoyne Junction during Monday afternoon and evening.

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may occur around the west Pilbara coast around Exmouth and Ningaloo, including the North West Cape, during this afternoon and overnight into Monday morning.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the west Pilbara coast, including Onslow and Exmouth. Tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark this afternoon and again on Monday morning's high tide, causing FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon, with Monday afternoon's high tide.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 7:00 pm AWST Sunday 08 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	6 pm February 8	2	21.4S	114.1E	30
+6hr	12 am February 9	2	22.1S	113.7E	50
+12hr	6 am February 9	2	22.9S	113.5E	70
+18hr	12 pm February 9	2	23.9S	113.4E	80
+24hr	6 pm February 9	2	24.9S	113.6E	85
+36hr	6 am February 10	tropical low	27.0S	115.2E	105
+48hr	6 pm February 10	tropical low	28.6S	118.5E	140
+60hr	6 am February 11	tropical low	28.3S	121.1E	125
+72hr	6 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX