莫桑比克海峡中等热带风暴第10号“盖扎尼”(21S.Gezani) - 西行近岸爆发穿越马达加斯加中部，进入莫峡再度增强，尔后或在莫峡南部回旋 - MAX MFR:100KT JTWC:110KT

ygsj24

WTXS32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 011   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 38.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 38.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 22.5S 36.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 23.9S 36.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 25.6S 36.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 26.5S 38.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 26.2S 42.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 26.7S 42.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 30.2S 41.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 37.8E.
13FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 124
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130000Z IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 130300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR
   
4. 011//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.3S 38.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 124 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND COLD CLOUD TOPS
    
19. CIRCLING THE CENTER. GEZANI HAD A PEAKED AT AROUND 1500Z BUT HAS
    
20. SINCE DEGRADED IN APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 10 HOURS OR SO. SOME
    
21. ENHANCED WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
    
22. CULPRIT FOR THE BRIEF DEGRADATION. THE SYSTEM ALSO TRACKED THROUGH
    
23. AN AREA OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES, COINCIDING WITH THE
    
24. STRUCTURAL WEAKENING. A 121552Z RCM-3 SAR IMAGE SHOWED A VMAX OF 97
    
25. KTS, HOWEVER, THE APPEARANCE HAS WORSENED SINCE THE PASS, CAUSING THE
    
26. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO BE HELD STEADY AT 90 KTS WITH MEDIUM
    
27. CONFIDENCE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) VALUES ALL AGREE ON T5.0,
    
28. SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
29. PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE IN
    
30. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO ASSIST.
    
31. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 21S IS IN A MARGINALLY
    
32. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW
    
33. ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
    
34. (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
35. 
    
36. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
37. 
    
38. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
    
39. RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
40. 
    
41. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
42.    PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
43.    DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
44.    FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
45.    CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 130000Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 88 KTS AT 130000Z
    
47. 
    
48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
49.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
50.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
    
52.    OTHER FACTORS: POOL OF LOW OHC WATERS UNDERNEATH THE SYSTEM
    
53. 
    
54. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
55.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
57.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
58. 
    
59. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
60. 
    
61. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
62. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
63. 
    
64. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD,
    
65. ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24. NEAR
    
66. TAU 24, 21S WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ATTEMPTS TO
    
67. ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER, A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
    
68. TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AROUND TAU 48, WHILE A SEPARATE RIDGE
    
69. OVER SOUTHEASTERN AFRICA SIMULTANEOUSLY FORMS. THE FORMATION OF
    
70. THIS SECOND RIDGE WILL HINDER POLEWARD PROGRESSION, AND ULTIMATELY
    
71. PUSH 21S EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT
    
72. ON A TRACK THAT STAYS OFF THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, CAUSING THE
    
73. TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CHANNEL TO BECOME MORE UNLIKELY. AFTER
    
74. TAU 72, A THIRD RIDGE TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR WILL BUILD AND
    
75. GUIDE 21S POLEWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
76. THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
    
77. TIMING OF THE FORMATION OF THE RIDGE EAST OF MADAGASCAR AND THE
    
78. INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH THAT PASSES TO THE SOUTH. REGARDING
    
79. INTENSITY, 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 24
    
80. TO A PEAK OF AROUND 105 KTS DUE TO LESSENING SHEAR AND INCREASING
    
81. OHC. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR INDUCED BY THE
    
82. INCOMING TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE VORTEX THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU
    
83. 96, 21S WILL BEGIN TO ENTER COOLER WATERS, WHICH WILL FURTHER
    
84. WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
    
85. 
    
86. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE, THOUGH IN BETTER
    
87. AGREEMENT, STILL REMAINS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48.
    
88. THROUGH TAU 48, THERE IS A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 115 NM AND AN
    
89. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 190 NM. AT TAU 120 ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
    
90. INCREASES TO OVER 700 NM. ECMWF HAS STOPPED SHOWING THE SHARP TURN
    
91. BACK THROUGH THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, CAUSING CONFIDENCE TO BE
    
92. SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT IT REMAINS
    
93. THE SLOWEST AND NORTHERNMOST MODEL. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
    
94. FASTEST MODEL AND SHOWS A FAST TRACK STRAIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD. AI
    
95. MODELS ARE NOW CLOSELY ALIGNED, AND THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
    
96. MORE CLOSELY TO THOSE SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 48. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
97. (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS) AGREES ON INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU
    
98. 24 BEFORE STEADY WEAKENING. PEAK INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 95-110 KTS
    
99. WITH HAFS-A BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL. THE JTWC INTENSITY
    
100. FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT
     
101. THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
     
102. 
     
103. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
104.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
105.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
     
106.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
107.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
108. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：董 林  2026 年 02 月 13 日 10 时
“盖扎尼”强度继续加强
将给莫桑比克海峡附近带来较强烈的风雨天气

时  间: 2月13日08时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “盖扎尼”，GEZANI

中心位置: 南纬21.2度，东经38.0度

强度等级: 热带气旋

最大风力: 13级，41米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 966百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋莫桑比克索法拉省贝拉东南方向约365公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“盖扎尼”由8级加强为13级

预报结论: “盖扎尼”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度将继续加强，由于其尺度小，结构紧凑，不排除13-14日其在莫桑比克海峡西部海域或莫桑比克东南部近海加强为强热带气旋的可能。13日夜间前后其将在莫桑比克东南部近海海面逐渐转向偏南方向移动，也有可能在转向偏南方向移动过程中于13日夜间到14日上午登陆或擦过莫桑比克东南部沿海地区，之后可能还会在莫桑比克海峡回旋3天左右。

受其影响，13至17日，莫桑比克海峡附近海域和莫桑比克中南部沿海地区将有较强烈的风雨天气，莫桑比克海峡将有8-10级大风，“盖扎尼”中心经过的附近海域风力可达11-15级，阵风 16-17级。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月13日08时00分）