关岛东南2604号热带风暴“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 西行趋向关岛，数值看好强度

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GFS 12Z稍微西调，预报将在136E附近转向北上，巅峰约935百帕

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JMA 18Z分析DT2 MET2.5 PT2.5 FT2 CI2，有望命名

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        6
featureDirectionOfMotion:        264 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        4.63 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        2
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        2
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        3
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2.5
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        1.5
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2.5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
finalTNumberType:        1

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JTWC 18Z分析维持T2.5

TPPN10 PGTW 091820
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (SE OF GUAM)
B. 09/1730Z
C. 8.23N
D. 151.44E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   09/1533Z  7.75N  151.53E  ATMS
   BALMER

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SSD 18Z分析升至T3.0

TXPQ22 KNES 091829
TCSWNP
A.  04W (NONAME)
B.  09/1730Z
C.  8.6N
D.  151.1E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T3.0/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY/GMI/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -92 C. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW GOOD S-W-N QUADS. MET AND PT=3.0. FT
BASED ON MET DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    09/1238Z 8.3N 151.1E GMI
    09/1547Z 8.5N 151.4E AMSR2
...KONON

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JTWC已升格TS

04W FOUR 260409 1800 8.4N 151.6E WPAC 35 997

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JMA 18Z升格TS，命名Sinlaku

WTPQ50 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TS 2604 SINLAKU (2604) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  091800UTC 08.4N 150.2E FAIR
MOVE  W 10KT
PRES  996HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
30KT  240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF  101800UTC 08.4N 149.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE  ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES  985HPA
MXWD  050KT
GUST  070KT
48HF  111800UTC 09.2N 149.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE  ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES  965HPA
MXWD  070KT
GUST  100KT
72HF  121800UTC 10.8N 147.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE  NW 07KT
PRES  945HPA
MXWD  085KT
GUST  120KT
96HF  131800UTC 12.7N 144.5E 125NM 70%
MOVE  NW 08KT
PRES  920HPA
MXWD  100KT
GUST  140KT
120HF 141800UTC 14.4N 142.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE  NW 06KT
PRES  920HPA
MXWD  100KT
GUST  140KT =

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ECMWF 12Z系集

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CMA首报上望超强台风

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HKO 18Z天气图显示已升格TS，并加上名字

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HKO热带气旋路径概率预报图（2026年4月10日更新）