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发表于 2026-4-13 05:13
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JTWC/04W/#16/04-12 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR
016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 11.6N 149.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 155 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 307 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAVSTA GUAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SUPER
TYPHOON (STY) 04W (SINLAKU) WITH A CLEAR AND WELL-DEFINED EYE
FEATURE, CHARACTERIZED BY A WARM (19-21 C) AND SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE.
IMMEDIATELY OUTSIDE OF THE EYEWALL, A UNIFORM AND PERSISTENT
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS CONTINUED TO ILLUSTRATE INTENSIFICATION
IN THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ALOFT, ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW
HAS REMAINED, IDENTIFIED BY OUTWARDLY BURSTING CIRRIFORM STRIATIONS
AWAY FROM STY 04W, WITH VISIBLE TRANSVERSE BANDING EXTENDING
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEMS SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE ON ANIMATED ENHANCED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS HAS REVEALED A
HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
27-28 C, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF LESS THAN 05 KTS,
SUPPORTIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND A DEEPLY MOIST PROFILE. THE
INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED AND PRESENT EYE-FEATURE OBSERVED ON ANIMATED
SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT 155 KTS, DERIVED FROM
SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES ALIGNED AT T7.5, AND CIMSS
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 151-165 KTS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH AN
EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED DIRECTLY TO
THE EAST AND A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHWEST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T7.5 - 155 KTS
RJTD: T7.5 - 155 KTS
RCTP: T7.5 - 155 KTS
KNES: T7.5 - 155 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 151 KTS AT 121547Z
CIMSS ADT: 164 KTS AT 121730Z
CIMSS AIDT: 160 KTS AT 121730Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 165 KTS AT 121812Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 161 KTS AT 121800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE FORECAST TRACK FOR STY 04W HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE, WITH A NORTHWEST
TRACK FORECASTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISLAND OF SAIPAN
HAS REMAINED IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EXPECTED TRACK, WITH
THE TAU 36 POSITION PLACED JUST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, STY 04W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
NER POSITIONED DIRECTLY TO THE EAST. FOLLOWING TAU 48, THE NER TO
THE EAST IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN RETREATING EASTWARD NEAR THE SAME
PERIOD THE STR TO THE WEST WEAKENS WESTWARD. AT THIS TIME, THE
TRACK FOR STY SINLAKU BECOMES NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS.
FOLLOWING TAU 72, THE TRACK FOR STY 04W IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND
PROGRESS ALONG THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE NER POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDING INTENSITY, STY 04W IS ASSESSED TO CURRENTLY BE
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACE CYCLE, AND IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN THE
INITIAL WEAKENING PHASE IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS DRY AIR ALSO BEGINS
SLOWLY WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEMS OUTERMOST PERIPHERY WHILE UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE SLOWS. STY 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE SYSTEM NEARS THE MARIANAS, WITH INTENSITIES NEAR 140 KTS EAST OF
GUAM AT TAU 24 AND THEN 125 KTS JUST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN NEAR
TAU 36. FOLLOWING TAU 36, CONTINUED WEAKENING OF SURFACE INTENSITIES
ARE FORECASTED AS SINLAKU ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AT TAU 72 WHILE DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO BATTER THE SYSTEMS OUTER PERIPHERY. AFTER TAU 72, DRY
AIR WILL PERSIST AND BEGIN ERODING SINLAKUS HORIZONTAL PROFILE WHILE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR 26 C, FURTHER WEAKENING SURFACE
INTENSITIES TOWARD 75 KTS BY TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL PREDICTION GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF NEAR 83 NM BY TAU 24
AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE MARIANAS. BY TAU 36, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
OF JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS INCREASES TO 131 NM DURING THE SYSTEMS
EXPECTED TRACK NEAR SAIPAN. FOLLOWING TAU 36, THE NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) CROSS-TRACK GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY, ILLUSTRATING A 317 NM SPREAD BY TAU
72 AND 577 NM DIVERGENCE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCLUDING THE SINGLE OUTLIER, NAVGEM, THE SPREAD ENVELOPE IS MUCH
MORE ALIGNED, LENDING MEDIUM TRACK CONFIDENCE UNTIL TAU 72, AND LOW
THEREAFTER. REGARDING INTENSITY, ALL JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MEMBERS CHARACTERIZE A SLOW AND GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE THROUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS,
WHICH ILLUSTRATES A SHARP WEAKENING PHASE IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE
OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE 120 HOUR PERIOD, AND PLACED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, CLOSER TO THE HAFS INTENSITY
SOLUTION. THE RI SIGNAL HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH COAMPS-TC EPS INTENSITY PROBABILITIES
SHOWING AN EXPECTED STEADY TO MODERATE WEAKENING INTENSITY FORECAST
THROUGH 120 HOUR PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2026-4-12 23:30
发表于 2026-4-13 04:52
