小笠原群岛以东2502号热带风暴“圣帕”(02W.Sepat) - 北上趋向日本关东近海

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JTWC 18Z分析T1.5/2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 241811
A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT)
B. 24/1730Z
C. 31.18N
D. 139.74E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH NONEXISTENT, COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT
YIELDS 1.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

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SSD 18Z分析降至T1.0/2.0

TXPQ24 KNES 241826
TCSWNP
A.  02W (SEPAT)
B.  24/1730Z
C.  31.3N
D.  139.7E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...THE SYSTEM LACKS PERSISTENT CONVECTION RESULTING IN A DT
OF 0.0. THE MET IS 1.5. THE PT IS 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO
PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

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JMA 18Z降格TD

WTPQ50 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2502 SEPAT (2502)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  241800UTC 31N 140E
MOVE  NNW 10KT
PRES  1006HPA =

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JMA今天凌晨予想天气图预报+24h维持TD，+48h转化为温带气旋

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ECMWF 12Z系集

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DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 2502 SEPAT (2502) TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1006 HPA AT 31N 140E NNW 10 KT.

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JTWC 21Z分析T1.5/1.5

TPPN10 PGTW 242106
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT)
B. 24/2030Z
C. 31.42N
D. 139.61E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH SMALL, COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT
YIELDS 1.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   24/1605Z  31.13N  139.90E  ATMS
   24/1634Z  31.25N  139.80E  AMS2
   24/1654Z  31.28N  140.08E  ATMS
   TIMMERMAN

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GFS 18Z继续预报北上擦过本州岛东南部，随后转向

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SSD 00Z分析TOO WEAK，JTWC分析维持T1.5/1.5

TXPQ24 KNES 250000
TCSWNP
A.  02W (SEPAT)
B.  24/2330Z
C.  31.9N
D.  139.5E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  TOO WEAK
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO THE LACK OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE MET IS 1.0 AND THE PT IS LESS THAN
1.0. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

TPPN10 PGTW 250015
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT)
B. 24/2330Z
C. 31.82N
D. 139.55E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH SMALL, COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET YIELDS 1.0.
PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

hei

剝光豬了