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WTIO30 FMEE 211839
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 47/6/20252026
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DUDZAI)
2.A POSITION 2026/01/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 35.8 S / 62.7 E
(THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 42 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 195 SW: 110 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/22 06 UTC: 43.0 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 465
34 KT NE: 360 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 270
24H: 2026/01/22 18 UTC: 49.5 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 620 SE: 380 SW: 490 NW: 815
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 435
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF DUDZAI HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DECAYED, CONVECTION HAS COLLAPSED, AND THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. IN ADDITION, IT HAS ADOPTED A
SHEAR CONFIGURATION WITH CONVECTION SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTRE. THE MAIN REASONS FOR THIS DETERIORATION ARE, ON THE ONE HAND,
THE DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND, ON THE OTHER HAND, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP WIND-SHEAR FROM THE NORTH-WEST. IN
FACT, DUDZAI'S STRONG ACCELERATION SOUTHWARD ALLOWED IT TO REACH A
MORE BAROCLINE ENVIRONMENT WITH COLDER WATERS AT 21AOC AND THE
PRESENCE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TYPICAL OF MID LATITUDES.
THE ASCAT-B AND C SWATHS AT 1645Z AND 1724Z MADE IT POSSIBLE TO
LOCATE THE CENTRE AND SHOW THAT IT IS BEGINNING TO STRETCH WITH A
LESS SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION OPENING UP ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. THESE
SAME ASCAT SWATHS MEASURED WIND SPEEDS STILL BETWEEN 55 AND 60 KT,
AND IT IS THIS LAST VALUE THAT IS USED FOR THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED,
LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. DUDZAI HAS BEGUN ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS CLASSIFIED AS A POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.
DUDZAI IS MOVING FASTER AND FASTER TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST IN FRONT OF
A MID-LATITUDE TALWEG APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE DISPERSION
BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS VERY LOW.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
TONIGHT, THE SYSTEM'S WINDS COULD REMAIN QUITE HIGH DUE TO BAROCLINIC
PROCESSES. AS IT MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER WATERS AND INTERACTS
WITH THE COLD FRONT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY LOSE ITS
TROPICAL FEATURES DURING THE NIGHT AND BE CLASSIFIED AS EXTRATROPICAL
ON THURSDAY, MERGING WITH THIS COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE LOW.
NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-1-21 16:50
发表于 2026-1-21 17:00
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