西澳北部近海三级强热带气旋“米切尔”(21U/20S.Mitchell) - 横穿澳大利亚北部，西行出海发展 - BoM:75KT JTWC:85KT

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Onslow, Exmouth, Ningaloo, and Coral Bay areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 40
Issued at 7:00 pm WST on Sunday 8 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2, impacting the Onslow and Exmouth regions as it moves towards the North West Cape this evening then down the Ningaloo coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Onslow to south of Carnarvon, including Exmouth, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne.

Watch Zone
South of Carnarvon to Overlander Roadhouse, including Denham, and extending to inland parts of the western Gascoyne, including Gascoyne Junction.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 7:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 21.5 degrees South 114.0 degrees East, estimated to be 110 kilometres west of Onslow and 45 kilometres north of Exmouth.

Movement: southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2 intensity, is expected to maintain its strength as it moves southwest towards the North West Cape this evening. Mitchell will then move south near the Ningaloo and Carnarvon coasts on Monday.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are likely occurring over northern parts of the North West Cape, including Exmouth. Destructive wind gusts may extend further south down the coast to Coral Bay on Monday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about remaining coastal areas from Onslow to Ningaloo. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend further south to Coral Bay and inland parts of the western Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne later this evening or overnight. During Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne, possibly developing over Carnarvon, Denham and Gascoyne Junction during Monday afternoon and evening.

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may occur around the west Pilbara coast around Exmouth and Ningaloo, including the North West Cape, during this afternoon and overnight into Monday morning.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the west Pilbara coast, including Onslow and Exmouth. Tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark this afternoon and again on Monday morning's high tide, causing FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon, with Monday afternoon's high tide.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm AWST Sunday 08 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	7 pm February 8	2	21.5S	114.0E	30
+6hr	1 am February 9	2	22.2S	113.7E	50
+12hr	7 am February 9	2	23.1S	113.5E	70
+18hr	1 pm February 9	2	24.1S	113.4E	80
+24hr	7 pm February 9	2	25.1S	113.8E	90
+36hr	7 am February 10	tropical low	27.2S	115.5E	110
+48hr	7 pm February 10	tropical low	28.6S	118.7E	140
+60hr	7 am February 11	tropical low	28.3S	121.4E	125
+72hr	7 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

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IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1228 UTC 08/02/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 21.6S
Longitude: 114.0E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (235 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Central Pressure: 973 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 65 nm (120 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/W0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  08/1800: 22.3S 113.7E:     025 (050):  060  (110):  973
+12:  09/0000: 23.2S 113.5E:     035 (070):  060  (110):  972
+18:  09/0600: 24.2S 113.5E:     045 (080):  055  (100):  976
+24:  09/1200: 25.2S 113.9E:     050 (090):  050  (095):  980
+36:  10/0000: 27.3S 115.8E:     060 (115):  030  (055):  993
+48:  10/1200: 28.5S 119.0E:     075 (140):  025  (045):  996
+60:  11/0000: 28.4S 121.9E:     060 (115):  025  (045):  996
+72:  11/1200:             :              :            :     
+96:  12/1200:             :              :            :     
+120: 13/1200:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell near the North West Cape of Western Australia being
tracked on Learmonth radar, with recent motion indicating a turn to the south
southwest as was forecast. The strongest deep convection west and north of the
centre. This reflects the ongoing moderate northeasterly wind shear.  

Intensity 60 kn, consistent with the subjective Dvorak estimate and supported
by objective guidance.

Dvorak Analysis: DT=4.5 using embedded centre (LG) pattern; MET is 4.0, based
on a W 24-hour trend and 0.5 Pat adjustment. FT/CI =4.0/4.0.   
Objective guidance (1-minute mean) at 1130 UTC: ADT 61 kn, AiDT 53 kn, DPRINT
58 kn, DMINT 72 kn (0607 UTC), and SATCON 72kn (0800 UTC).   

CIMSS upper-level wind analysis estimates deep-layer vertical wind shear
northeasterly around 17 kn (09 UTC). Otherwise Mitchell remains in a generally
favourable environment, sea surface temperatures are 28   C and upper-level
divergence remains strong, particularly on the southern side of the
circulation, supported by persistent poleward outflow. The intensity is
forecast to remain at around 60 kn in the short term as it moves south along
the Ningaloo coast of WA's upper west coast, overnight and then weaken only
slightly as it moves further south. The drop in ocean temperatures and
proximity to land will be offset by a reduction in wind shear. The system is
expected to move southeast and weaken over land on Tuesday.

Mitchell is now being steered south southwestward along the western periphery
of a mid-level ridge located to the east. A mid-level trough will approach from
the southwest will assist in turning Mitchell to a more southerly path. Later
Monday the trough will begin to steer Mitchell to the southeast and move it
across inland WA. The current forecast takes it along the west coast, but there
is still the possibility the system stays west of the coast over water for
longer during Monday which would extend the longevity of the system and a more
likely impact to areas such as Shark Bay/Denham.   

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/1930 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Onslow, Exmouth, Ningaloo, and Coral Bay areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 41
Issued at 7:59 pm WST on Sunday 8 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2, currently located near the North West Cape impacting the Onslow and Exmouth regions. Forecast to move down the Ningaloo and Gascoyne coasts towards Carnarvon on Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Onslow to Overlander Roadhouse, including Exmouth, Carnarvon, and Denham, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and western Gascoyne including Gascoyne Junction.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 21.6 degrees South 114.0 degrees East, estimated to be 115 kilometres west of Onslow and 40 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth.

Movement: southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), a category 2 cyclone, is expected to maintain its strength as it moves southwest towards the North West Cape this evening. Mitchell will then move south near the Ningaloo and Carnarvon coasts on Monday.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are likely occurring over northern parts of the North West Cape, including Exmouth. Destructive wind gusts may extend south down the coast to Coral Bay on Monday morning, and then possibly further south to Carnarvon on Monday afternoon.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about remaining coastal areas from Onslow to Ningaloo. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend further south to Coral Bay and inland parts of the western Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne later this evening or overnight. During Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne, developing over Carnarvon in the afternoon and possibly to Denham, Wooramel, Overlander Roadhouse, and Gascoyne Junction during the evening.

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may occur around the west Pilbara coast around Exmouth and Ningaloo, including the North West Cape, during this afternoon and overnight into Monday morning.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the west Pilbara coast, including Onslow and Exmouth. Tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark this afternoon and again on Monday morning's high tide, causing FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon, with Monday afternoon's high tide.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Sunday 08 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm February 8	2	21.6S	114.0E	30
+6hr	2 am February 9	2	22.3S	113.7E	50
+12hr	8 am February 9	2	23.2S	113.5E	70
+18hr	2 pm February 9	2	24.2S	113.5E	80
+24hr	8 pm February 9	2	25.2S	113.9E	90
+36hr	8 am February 10	tropical low	27.3S	115.8E	115
+48hr	8 pm February 10	tropical low	28.5S	119.0E	140
+60hr	8 am February 11	tropical low	28.4S	121.9E	115
+72hr	8 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

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IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Onslow, Exmouth, Ningaloo, and Coral Bay areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 42
Issued at 8:58 pm WST on Sunday 8 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2, currently located near the North West Cape impacting the Onslow and Exmouth regions. Forecast to move down the Ningaloo and Gascoyne coasts towards Carnarvon on Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Onslow to Overlander Roadhouse, including Exmouth, Carnarvon, and Denham, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and western Gascoyne including Gascoyne Junction.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 9:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 21.7 degrees South 113.9 degrees East, estimated to be 130 kilometres west of Onslow and 35 kilometres northwest of Exmouth.

Movement: southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), a category 2 cyclone, is expected to maintain its strength as it moves southwest towards the North West Cape this evening. Mitchell will then move south near the Ningaloo and Carnarvon coasts on Monday.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are likely occurring over northern parts of the North West Cape, including Exmouth. Destructive wind gusts may extend south down the coast to Coral Bay on Monday morning, and then possibly further south to Carnarvon on Monday afternoon.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about remaining coastal areas from Onslow to Ningaloo. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend further south to Coral Bay and inland parts of the western Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne tonight. During Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne, developing over Carnarvon in the afternoon and possibly to Denham, Wooramel, Overlander Roadhouse, and Gascoyne Junction during the evening.

Widespread moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday. Local areas of INTENSE rainfall leading to SEVERE FLASH FLOODING may occur around the west Pilbara coast around Exmouth and Ningaloo, including the North West Cape, tonight and Monday morning.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the west Pilbara coast, including Onslow and Exmouth. Tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Monday morning's high tide, causing FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon, with Monday afternoon's high tide.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm AWST Sunday 08 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	9 pm February 8	2	21.7S	113.9E	30
+6hr	3 am February 9	2	22.5S	113.6E	50
+12hr	9 am February 9	2	23.4S	113.4E	70
+18hr	3 pm February 9	2	24.4S	113.5E	80
+24hr	9 pm February 9	2	25.4S	114.0E	90
+36hr	9 am February 10	tropical low	27.4S	115.9E	115
+48hr	9 pm February 10	tropical low	28.5S	119.2E	135
+60hr	9 am February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	9 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

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WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 011   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z --- NEAR 21.6S 114.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 114.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 23.2S 113.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 25.2S 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 27.3S 115.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 28.6S 118.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 113.8E. 08FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 42 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA,
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z,
090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 081500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING
   
4. NR 011//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.6S 114.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 42 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (MITCHELL) EXHIBITS A CONTINUING WEAKENING
    
18. TREND AS IT TRAVERSES SOUTHWESTWARD, CURRENTLY PASSING JUST NORTH OF
    
19. THE NORTHWEST CAPE OF THE EXMOUTH PENINSULA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
    
20. INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEGRADED CENTRAL DENSE
    
21. OVERCAST (CDO) CHARACTERIZED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DIMINISHING
    
22. CONVECTION, RESULTING IN AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
23. (LLCC). LAND-BASED RADAR DATA FROM LEARMONTH HOWEVER, PROVIDE A
    
24. GLIMPSE UNDER THE CDO AND DEPICT A RAGGED AND BROAD LLCC POSITIONED
    
25. APPROXIMATELY 42NM NNW OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED MULTI-CHANNEL WATER
    
26. VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL SKEW-T DATA SUPPORT THE FACT THAT WHILE DEEP-
    
27. LAYER SHEAR IS IN THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE, MID-LEVEL, SUB-OUTFLOW
    
28. LEVEL, SHEAR IS A FEW KNOTS HIGHER, WHICH IS DEGRADING THE SYSTEM.
    
29. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING THE LAND-
    
30. BASED RADAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
31. CONFIDENCE PRIMARILY BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED
    
32. BELOW, WHICH ARE RUNNING LOWER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
    
33. INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES FROM BOTH PGTW AND APRF. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
34. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH MID-LEVEL SHEAR
    
35. OFFSETTING WARM SSTS AND STRONG POLEWARD, DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AHEAD OF
    
36. AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.
    
37. 
    
38. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
39. 
    
40. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
41. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.
    
42. 
    
43. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
44.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
45.    DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
46.    APRF: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
47.    CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 081130Z
    
48.    CIMSS AIDT: 53 KTS AT 081130Z
    
49.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 58 KTS AT 081200Z
    
50. 
    
51. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
52.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
53.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
54.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
55.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY, LOW ENTROPY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CORE OF
    
56. THE
    
57. SYSTEM FROM THE CONTINENT; HIGH MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
    
58. 
    
59. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
60.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
61.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
62.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
63. 
    
64. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
65. 
    
66. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
67. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
68. 
    
69. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 20S HAS OSCILLATED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER THE
    
70. PAST FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR DERIVED FIXES, CONTINUING THE WESTWARD
    
71. BIAS SEEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. A LANDFALL ALONG THE EXMOUTH
    
72. PENINSULA IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED; THE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PASS
    
73. TO THE WEST OF THE PENINSULA AS IT UNDERGOES A GRADUAL SOUTHERLY
    
74. RECURVATURE, PARALLELING THE COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE
    
75. RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 12, AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD
    
76. TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, AS IT TRACKS ALONG
    
77. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
    
78. STR OVER AUSTRALIA. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THE FAR WESTERN
    
79. COAST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA, ROUGHLY NEAR MCLEOD, THEN TRACK
    
80. SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF SHARK BAY BEFORE MOVING
    
81. ASHORE FOR THE FINAL TIME IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SHARK BAY SHORTLY
    
82. AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH THE
    
83. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, SHEAR IS
    
84. FORECAST TO MODERATE IN THE NEAR-TERM; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXTENDED
    
85. MARITIME TRACK, TC 20S WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO CYCLOLYSIS DRIVEN BY
    
86. COOLING SSTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, ALBEIT AT A REDUCED DECAY RATE
    
87. THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER MAKING FINAL LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF SHARK BAY,
    
88. TC 20S WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND INCREASED
    
89. STABILITY AS IT TRAVERSES INLAND.
    
90. 
    
91. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITHIN A
    
92. CONSTRAINED ENVELOPE BUT EXHIBITS A PERSISTENT WESTWARD SHIFT WITH
    
93. SUCCESSIVE INITIALIZATIONS. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS AN
    
94. EASTERN BOUNDARY, DEFINED BY THE GFS TRACKER, POSITIONED OVER THE
    
95. WESTERN EDGE OF THE EXMOUTH PENINSULA. THE WESTERN BOUNDARY IS
    
96. DEFINED BY NAVGEM, WHICH MAINTAINS AN OFFSHORE TRACK THROUGH THE
    
97. WESTERN SECTOR OF SHARK BAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL MEMBERS ARE
    
98. SITUATED WITHIN 25NM WEST OF THE GFS SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
    
99. ALIGNED WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
    
100. CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING
     
101. SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 24 FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID WEAKENING
     
102. THEREAFTER AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE HWRF TRACKER
     
103. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
     
104. 
     
105. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
106.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
107.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
     
108. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Onslow, Exmouth, Ningaloo, and Coral Bay areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 43
Issued at 9:50 pm WST on Sunday 8 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2, currently located near the North West Cape impacting the Onslow and Exmouth regions. Forecast to move down the Ningaloo and Gascoyne coasts towards Carnarvon on Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Onslow to Overlander Roadhouse, including Exmouth, Carnarvon, and Denham, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and western Gascoyne including Gascoyne Junction.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 10:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 21.7 degrees South 113.8 degrees East, estimated to be 135 kilometres west of Onslow and 45 kilometres northwest of Exmouth.

Movement: southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), a category 2 cyclone, is expected to maintain its strength as it moves southwest towards the North West Cape this evening. Mitchell will then move south near the Ningaloo and Carnarvon coasts on Monday.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are likely occurring over northern parts of the North West Cape, including Exmouth. Destructive wind gusts may extend south down the coast to Coral Bay on Monday morning, and then possibly further south to Carnarvon on Monday afternoon.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about remaining coastal areas from Onslow to Ningaloo. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend further south to Coral Bay and inland parts of the western Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne tonight. During Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne, developing over Carnarvon in the afternoon and possibly to Denham, Wooramel, Overlander Roadhouse, and Gascoyne Junction during the evening.

Localised moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to rise above the normal high tide mark along the far west Pilbara coast including Exmouth on Monday early morning's high tide, and at Coral Bay on Monday afternoon's high tide causing FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon on Monday afternoon's high tide and possibly further south to Denham overnight Monday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm AWST Sunday 08 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 pm February 8	2	21.7S	113.8E	30
+6hr	4 am February 9	2	22.5S	113.5E	50
+12hr	10 am February 9	2	23.5S	113.4E	70
+18hr	4 pm February 9	2	24.5S	113.6E	80
+24hr	10 pm February 9	2	25.5S	114.1E	90
+36hr	10 am February 10	tropical low	27.5S	116.2E	115
+48hr	10 pm February 10	tropical low	28.4S	119.4E	135
+60hr	10 am February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	10 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Onslow, Exmouth, Ningaloo, and Coral Bay areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 44
Issued at 10:58 pm WST on Sunday 8 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2, currently located near the North West Cape impacting the Onslow and Exmouth regions. Forecast to move down the Ningaloo and Gascoyne coasts towards Carnarvon on Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Onslow to Overlander Roadhouse, including Exmouth, Carnarvon, and Denham, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and western Gascoyne including Gascoyne Junction.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 11:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 21.8 degrees South 113.8 degrees East, estimated to be 45 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth and 350 kilometres north of Carnarvon.

Movement: southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), a category 2 cyclone, is expected to maintain its strength as it moves southwest past the North West Cape this evening. Mitchell will then move south near the Ningaloo and Carnarvon coasts on Monday.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are likely occurring over northern parts of the North West Cape, including Exmouth. Destructive wind gusts may extend south down the coast to Coral Bay on Monday morning, and then possibly further south to Carnarvon on Monday afternoon.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about remaining coastal areas from Onslow to Ningaloo. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend further south to Coral Bay and inland parts of the western Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne tonight. During Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne, developing over Carnarvon in the afternoon and possibly to Denham, Wooramel, Overlander Roadhouse, and Gascoyne Junction during the evening.

Localised moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to rise above the normal high tide mark along the far west Pilbara coast including Exmouth on Monday early morning's high tide, and at Coral Bay on Monday afternoon's high tide causing FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon on Monday afternoon's high tide and possibly further south to Denham overnight Monday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am AWST Monday 09 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 pm February 8	2	21.8S	113.8E	30
+6hr	5 am February 9	2	22.7S	113.5E	50
+12hr	11 am February 9	2	23.7S	113.3E	70
+18hr	5 pm February 9	2	24.7S	113.5E	80
+24hr	11 pm February 9	1	25.7S	114.1E	85
+36hr	11 am February 10	tropical low	27.7S	116.1E	105
+48hr	11 pm February 10	tropical low	28.3S	119.4E	115
+60hr	11 am February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	11 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Onslow, Exmouth, Ningaloo, and Coral Bay areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 45
Issued at 11:58 pm WST on Sunday 8 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2, currently located near the North West Cape impacting the Onslow and Exmouth regions. Forecast to move down the Ningaloo and Gascoyne coasts towards Carnarvon during Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Onslow to Overlander Roadhouse, including Exmouth, Carnarvon, and Denham, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and western Gascoyne including Gascoyne Junction.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 12:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 21.9 degrees South 113.7 degrees East, estimated to be 40 kilometres west of Exmouth and 330 kilometres north of Carnarvon.

Movement: southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), a category 2 cyclone, is expected to move southwards near the Ningaloo and Carnarvon coasts during Monday. It is expected to maintain its strength during the morning, then start weakening in the afternoon.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are likely occurring over northern parts of the North West Cape, including Exmouth. Destructive wind gusts may extend south down the coast to Coral Bay on Monday morning, and then possibly further south to Carnarvon on Monday afternoon.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about remaining coastal areas from Onslow to Ningaloo. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend further south to Coral Bay and inland parts of the western Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne tonight. During Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne, developing over Carnarvon in the afternoon and possibly to Denham, Wooramel, Overlander Roadhouse, and Gascoyne Junction during the evening.

Localised moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to rise above the normal high tide mark along the far west Pilbara coast including Exmouth on Monday early morning's high tide, and at Coral Bay on Monday afternoon's high tide causing FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon on Monday afternoon's high tide and possibly further south to Denham overnight Monday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 1:00 am AWST Monday 09 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	12 am February 9	2	21.9S	113.7E	30
+6hr	6 am February 9	2	22.9S	113.5E	50
+12hr	12 pm February 9	2	23.9S	113.4E	70
+18hr	6 pm February 9	2	24.8S	113.6E	80
+24hr	12 am February 10	1	25.8S	114.2E	85
+36hr	12 pm February 10	tropical low	27.8S	116.4E	120
+48hr	12 am February 11	tropical low	28.7S	119.4E	135
+60hr	12 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	12 am February 12	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Onslow, Exmouth, Ningaloo, and Coral Bay areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 46
Issued at 1:02 am WST on Monday 9 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2, currently located near the North West Cape impacting the Onslow and Exmouth regions. Forecast to move down the Ningaloo and Gascoyne coasts towards Carnarvon during Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Onslow to Overlander Roadhouse, including Exmouth, Carnarvon, and Denham, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and western Gascoyne including Gascoyne Junction.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 1:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 22.0 degrees South 113.7 degrees East, estimated to be 45 kilometres west southwest of Exmouth and 315 kilometres north of Carnarvon.

Movement: southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), a category 2 cyclone, is expected to move southwards near the Ningaloo and Carnarvon coasts during Monday. It is expected to maintain its strength during the morning, then start weakening in the afternoon.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are likely occurring over northern parts of the North West Cape, including Exmouth. Destructive wind gusts may extend south down the coast to Coral Bay on Monday morning, and then possibly further south to Carnarvon on Monday afternoon.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about remaining coastal areas from Onslow to Ningaloo. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend further south to Coral Bay and inland parts of the western Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne this morning. During Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne, developing over Carnarvon in the afternoon and possibly to Denham, Wooramel, Overlander Roadhouse, and Gascoyne Junction during the evening.

Localised moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on Monday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to rise above the normal high tide mark along the far west Pilbara coast including Exmouth on Monday early morning's high tide, and at Coral Bay on Monday afternoon's high tide causing FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon on Monday afternoon's high tide and possibly further south to Denham overnight Monday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am AWST Monday 09 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	1 am February 9	2	22.0S	113.7E	30
+6hr	7 am February 9	2	23.0S	113.5E	50
+12hr	1 pm February 9	2	24.0S	113.4E	70
+18hr	7 pm February 9	2	25.0S	113.7E	80
+24hr	1 am February 10	1	26.0S	114.3E	90
+36hr	1 pm February 10	tropical low	27.9S	116.6E	115
+48hr	1 am February 11	tropical low	28.6S	119.6E	150
+60hr	1 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	1 am February 12	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

Ragasa

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Onslow, Exmouth, Ningaloo, and Coral Bay areas are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 47
Issued at 1:58 am WST on Monday 9 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2, currently located near the North
West Cape impacting the Onslow and Exmouth regions. Forecast to move down the
Ningaloo and Gascoyne coasts towards Carnarvon during Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Onslow to Overlander Roadhouse, including Exmouth, Carnarvon, and
Denham, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and western Gascoyne
including Gascoyne Junction.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 22.2 degrees South 113.7 degrees East,
estimated to be 55 kilometres west southwest of Exmouth and 305 kilometres
north of Carnarvon.
Movement: southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), a category 2 cyclone, is expected to move
southwards near the Ningaloo and Carnarvon coasts during Monday before taking a
track to the southeast later Monday, crossing the Gascoyne coast and moving
over land Monday night.

It is expected to maintain its strength during this morning. Mitchell will
start weakening in the afternoon and is expected to weaken below cyclone
strength Tuesday morning as it moves over land through the southern Gascoyne.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are likely occurring over northern parts of
the North West Cape, including Exmouth. Destructive wind gusts may extend south
down the coast to Coral Bay on Monday morning, and then possibly further south
to Carnarvon on Monday afternoon.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about remaining
coastal areas from Onslow to Coral Bay. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120
km/h are forecast to extend further south to Cape Cuvier and inland parts of
the western Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne this morning. During Monday,
GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne, developing over
Carnarvon in the afternoon and possibly to Denham, Wooramel, Overlander
Roadhouse, and Gascoyne Junction during the evening.

Localised moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is
possible over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on
Monday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to rise above the normal high tide mark
along the far west Pilbara coast including Exmouth on Monday early morning's
high tide, and at Coral Bay on Monday afternoon's high tide causing FLOODING of
low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne
coast, including Carnarvon on Monday afternoon's high tide and possibly further
south to Denham overnight Monday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Monday 09 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am February 9	2	22.2S	113.7E	30
+6hr	8 am February 9	2	23.1S	113.4E	50
+12hr	2 pm February 9	2	24.1S	113.5E	70
+18hr	8 pm February 9	2	25.1S	113.8E	80
+24hr	2 am February 10	1	26.1S	114.4E	90
+36hr	2 pm February 10	tropical low	28.3S	116.9E	115
+48hr	2 am February 11	tropical low	28.7S	120.1E	140
+60hr	2 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	2 am February 12	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

1. IDW27600
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 1834 UTC 08/02/2026
   
5. Name: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
   
6. Identifier: 21U
   
7. Data At: 1800 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 22.2S
   
9. Longitude: 113.7E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
    
11. Movement Towards: southwest (226 deg)
    
12. Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h)
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
    
15. Central Pressure: 976 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 95 nm (175 km)
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 65 nm (120 km)
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm (315 km)
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. (UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
    
32. +06:  09/0000: 23.1S 113.4E:     025 (050):  060  (110):  977
    
33. +12:  09/0600: 24.1S 113.5E:     035 (070):  060  (110):  976
    
34. +18:  09/1200: 25.1S 113.8E:     045 (080):  050  (095):  984
    
35. +24:  09/1800: 26.1S 114.4E:     050 (090):  040  (075):  991
    
36. +36:  10/0600: 28.3S 116.9E:     060 (115):  035  (065):  994
    
37. +48:  10/1800: 28.7S 120.1E:     075 (140):  025  (045): 1000
    
38. +60:  11/0600:             :              :            :     
    
39. +72:  11/1800:             :              :            :     
    
40. +96:  12/1800:             :              :            :     
    
41. +120: 13/1800:             :              :            :     
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Tropical Cyclone Mitchell near the North West Cape of Western Australia being
    
44. tracked on Learmonth radar. Strong deep convection has been decreasing in the
    
45. north, but does remains strong in the southwest quadrant. This reflects the
    
46. ongoing moderate northeasterly wind shear.  
    
47. 
    
48. Intensity 60 kn, consistent with the subjective Dvorak estimate.
    
49. 
    
50. Dvorak Analysis: DT=4.0 using embedded centre (MG) pattern; MET is 3.0, based
    
51. on a W+ 24-hour trend and PAT 3.5 with a 0.5 adjustment. FT 3.5. CI held at 4.0
    
52. with weakening having started again after small increase DT about 6 hours ago.
    
53. Latest Objective guidance (1-minute mean) at 1700UTC: ADT 51 kn, AiDT 45 kn,
    
54. DPRINT 54 kn.  Observations at Learmonth Airport have been reporting mean winds
    
55. of 40    45 kn since 1500 UTC.
    
56. 
    
57. CIMSS upper-level wind analysis estimates deep-layer vertical wind shear
    
58. northeasterly around 22 kn (12 UTC). Otherwise Mitchell remains in a generally
    
59. favourable environment, sea surface temperatures are 28   C and upper-level
    
60. divergence remains strong, particularly on the southern side of the
    
61. circulation, supported by persistent poleward outflow. The intensity is
    
62. forecast to remain at around 60 kn in the short term as it moves south along
    
63. the Ningaloo coast of WA's upper west coast this morning and then weaken only
    
64. slightly as it moves further south. The drop in ocean temperatures and
    
65. proximity to land will be offset by a reduction in wind shear and increase in
    
66. upper divergence. The system is expected to move southeast and weaken over land
    
67. on Tuesday.
    
68. 
    
69. Mitchell is now being steered south southwestward along the western periphery
    
70. of a mid-level ridge located to the east. A mid-level trough will approach from
    
71. the southwest will assist in turning Mitchell to a more southerly path. Later
    
72. Monday the trough will begin to steer Mitchell to the southeast and move it
    
73. across inland WA. The current forecast takes it along the west coast, but there
    
74. is still the possibility the system stays west of the coast over water for
    
75. longer during Monday which would extend the longevity of the system and a more
    
76. likely impact to areas such as Shark Bay/Denham.
    
77. 
    
78. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
79. ==
    
80. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0130 UTC.=
    

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Ragasa

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Exmouth, Ningaloo, Coral Bay and Cape Cuvier areas are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 48
Issued at 3:04 am WST on Monday 9 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2, currently located near the North
West Cape and impacting the Exmouth region. Forecast to move down the Ningaloo
and Gascoyne coasts towards Carnarvon during Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: West of Onslow to Overlander Roadhouse, including Exmouth,
Carnarvon, and Denham, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and
western Gascoyne including Gascoyne Junction.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: Near Onslow.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 3:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 22.2 degrees South 113.6 degrees East,
estimated to be 65 kilometres west southwest of Exmouth and 295 kilometres
north of Carnarvon.
Movement: southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), a category 2 cyclone, is expected to move
southwards near the Ningaloo and Carnarvon coasts during today before taking a
track to the southeast later today, crossing the Gascoyne coast and moving over
land Monday night.

Mitchell has started to weaken but expected to maintain a category 2 strength
during this morning. Mitchell will weaken further in the afternoon and is
expected to be below cyclone strength Tuesday morning as it moves over land
through the southern Gascoyne.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h are likely occurring over northern parts of
the North West Cape, including Exmouth. Destructive wind gusts may extend south
down the coast to Coral Bay during this morning, and then possibly further
south to Carnarvon on Monday afternoon.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about remaining
coastal areas from west of Onslow to Coral Bay. GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
to 120 km/h are forecast to extend further south to Cape Cuvier and inland
parts of the western Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne this morning. During
Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne,
developing over Carnarvon in the afternoon and possibly to Denham, Wooramel,
Overlander Roadhouse, and Gascoyne Junction during the evening.

Localised moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is
possible over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on
Monday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to rise above the normal high tide mark
along the far west Pilbara coast including Exmouth on the morning's early high
tide, and at Coral Bay on Monday afternoon's high tide causing FLOODING of
low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne
coast, including Carnarvon on Monday afternoon's high tide and possibly further
south to Denham overnight Monday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 4:00 am AWST Monday 09 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	3 am February 9	2	22.2S	113.6E	30
+6hr	9 am February 9	2	23.2S	113.4E	50
+12hr	3 pm February 9	2	24.2S	113.5E	70
+18hr	9 pm February 9	2	25.2S	113.9E	80
+24hr	3 am February 10	1	26.2S	114.6E	90
+36hr	3 pm February 10	tropical low	28.5S	117.2E	120
+48hr	3 am February 11	tropical low	28.6S	120.1E	155
+60hr	3 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	3 am February 12	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX