莫桑比克海峡热带气旋第10号“盖扎尼”(21S.Gezani) - 西行近岸爆发穿越马达加斯加中部，进入莫峡再度增强，或在海峡南部回旋 - MAX MFR:100KT JTWC:110KT

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：郝淑会、刘涛  签发：董 林  2026 年 02 月 14 日 10 时
“盖扎尼”正从莫桑比克东南部沿海擦过
未来3天莫桑比克海峡仍有较强风雨影响

时  间: 2月14日08时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “盖扎尼”，GEZANI

中心位置: 南纬24.0度，东经35.9度

强度等级: 热带气旋

最大风力: 14级，43米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压: 959百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋莫桑比克索法拉省贝拉南偏东方向约420公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“盖扎尼”由13级加强为14级

预报结论: “盖扎尼”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏南方向移动，将从莫桑比克东南部沿海擦过， 14日夜间开始逐渐转向偏东方向移动，强度缓慢减弱。

受其影响，14至17日，莫桑比克海峡、莫桑比克中南沿海有8-10级大风，“盖扎尼”中心经过的附近海域风力可达11-14级，阵风 15-16级。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月14日08时00分）

莎莎

Gezani  已經在莫桑比克海峽重新增強..目前在Inhambane那裏沿岸橫掃


未來會轉回來靠近馬達加斯加南部，但是預測上會南墜．不會影響到馬達加斯加本島

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WTIO30 FMEE 140659
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 35.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/14 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 150 SW: 480 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SW: 215 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/02/15 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 150 SW: 360 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SW: 165 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/02/15 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 305 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/02/16 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/16 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/02/17 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SW: 380 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/18 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 75

120H: 2026/02/19 06 UTC: 37.5 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED. MICROWAVE
IMAGES GPM AT 0107Z AND SSMIS F18 AT 0129Z HAVE ENABLED THE CENTER TO
BE CORRECTLY LOCATED 25-30 KM FROM THE COAST. THE 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
ORGANIZED AND SYMMETRICAL CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. CLASSIC
INFRARED IMAGERY MADE IT POSSIBLE TO TRACK THE CENTER'S PROGRESSION
TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WARMING UP. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS BASED
ESSENTIALLY ON THE DT OF THE EYE ANALYSIS AND ALLOWS A T ESTIMATE OF
5.0, WHILE THE CI REMAINS AT 5.5- BY INERTIA. THE MAXIMUM AVERAGE
WIND SPEED IS THEREFORE 85 KT, AND THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

NO CHANGE IN GEZANI'S SHORT-TERM TRACK: IT IS CURVING SOUTHWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RETREAT OF THE SUBTROPICAL BACKBONE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GEZANI IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, AWAY FROM THE COAST
OF MOZAMBIQUE. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN ALTITUDE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, GEZANI'S TRACK WILL MAKE A MARKED TURN FROM THIS SATURDAY
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST AND THEN THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST, PASSING AT A GOOD DISTANCE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. IN THE LONG TERM, IT SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHWARD, CHANGING DIRECTION AGAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGES, WHICH FORECAST A MORE OR LESS
EARLY EVACUATION, OR EVEN A MORE MARKED NORTHWARD MOVEMENT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM BEGAN TO WEAKEN AFTER PASSING NEAR
THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE PRESENCE OF THE LAND IS AFFECTING THE
SYSTEM, CAUSING A SLIGHT WEAKENING. THIS WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DUE TO A DEEP SHEAR THAT COULD BECOME MODERATE THE STRONG.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE WEAKEN SUSTAINABLY AS THIS SHEAR INCREASES
IN THE COMING DAYS, REMAINING AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM
OR EVEN A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD BY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SYSTEM'S TRACK.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE (INHAMBANE PROVINCE):
- GALE-FORCE WINDS AND STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
COASTAL AREA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGHOUT SATURDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH UP TO 100 MM IN LESS
THAN 24 HOURS ALONG THE COAST, LOCALLY MORE AT THE CLOSEST POINT TO
THE TRACK.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. OUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEA
ON SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WAVES OF 7 TO 10 METERS. A SURGE OF 50CM-1M
POSSIBLE LOCALLY NEAR INHAMBANE.

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY, STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY, UNTIL TUESDAY DAYTIME ON THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF MADAGASCAR. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AT THE END OF TUESDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEA WITH 4-METER WAVES EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY.

桑美和伊欧凯

莎莎 发表于 2026-2-14 11:24
Gezani  已經在莫桑比克海峽重新增強..目前在Inhambane那裏沿岸橫掃

长远看还是南下转温，北上一小段倒是可以刷更多ACE

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：郝淑会、刘涛  签发：董 林  2026 年 02 月 14 日 18 时
“盖扎尼”正从莫桑比克东南部沿海擦过
未来3天莫桑比克海峡仍有较强风雨影响

时  间: 2月14日14时（北京时）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “盖扎尼”，GEZANI

中心位置: 南纬24.8度，东经35.9度

强度等级: 热带气旋

最大风力: 14级，44米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压: 960百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋莫桑比克索法拉省贝拉南偏东方向约570公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“盖扎尼”由13级加强为14级

预报结论: “盖扎尼”将以每小时10-15公里左右的速度向偏南方向移动，将从莫桑比克东南部沿海擦过， 14日夜间开始逐渐转向偏东方向移动，强度缓慢减弱。

受其影响，14至17日，莫桑比克海峡、莫桑比克中南沿海有8-10级大风，“盖扎尼”中心经过的附近海域风力可达11-14级，阵风 15-16级。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月14日14时00分）

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 141355
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 36.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/15 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 140 SW: 470 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SW: 215 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/02/15 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 140 SW: 345 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SW: 155 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2026/02/16 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

48H: 2026/02/16 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100

60H: 2026/02/17 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 55

72H: 2026/02/17 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 285 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/18 12 UTC: 28.6 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 0

120H: 2026/02/19 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED AND TAKEN
ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN EMBEDDED CENTRE. THE GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE
FROM 1059Z HAS MADE IT POSSIBLE TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, WHICH
IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE 89 GHZ FREQUENCY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION
HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND HAS LOST ITS SYMMETRY, INDICATING A
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IN DT ESTIMATES
A T OF 4.5 AND A CI OF 5.0+, AND THEREFORE AN AVERAGE MAXIMUM WIND
SPEED OF 80 KT. GEZANI IS THEREFORE STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

REGARDING THE TRACK, A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS STEERING THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THEREAFTER, AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY LOWER-ALTITUDE FLOWS, SEVERAL SCENARIOS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE SCENARIO CHOSEN IS A NORTHWARD TURN IN THE TRACK ON
SUNDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH OF
AFRICA. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IS VERY UNCERTAIN: IT COULD CONTINUE
NORTHWARD AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND MAKE A LOOP IN THE
CHANNEL BEFORE BEING PICKED UP BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FLOW TO THE
EAST AND HEAD SOUTHWARD AGAIN, OR IT COULD SIMPLY BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD
EARLIER BY THIS RIDGE. AMONG THESE SCENARIOS, SOME ARE SPREADING NEAR
THE PROVINCE OF TOLIARA IN SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
THERE IS THEREFORE STILL A VERY LARGE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGES, WHICH FORECAST A MORE OR LESS EARLY
EVACUATION, OR EVEN A MORE MARKED NORTHWARD MOVEMENT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBJECT TO
INCREASINGLY STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE WEAKEN
SUSTAINABLY AS THIS SHEAR INCREASES IN THE COMING DAYS, AND COULD BE
DOWNGRADED TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SYSTEM'S TRACK.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE (INHAMBANE PROVINCE):

- POSSIBLE GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN THRUST BEHIND THE SYSTEM
UNTIL SUNDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL (100-150MM IN 24 HOURS) STILL POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER
BANDS UNTIL SUNDAY.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M POSSIBLE UNTIL MONDAY.

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- POSSIBLE GUSTS DURING THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY, UNTIL
TUESDAY DAYTIME ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT AT THE END OF TUESDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND
THROUGH TUESDAY.

1996莎莉

马达加斯加图阿马西纳机场登陆前测得最低气压994hpa，持续风24m/s，后来气象站失灵

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WTXS32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 014   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z --- NEAR 25.9S 36.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 36.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 26.5S 38.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 26.3S 39.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 25.5S 40.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 24.9S 41.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 26.7S 41.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 31.6S 41.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 26.1S 37.0E.
14FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297
NM SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141200Z IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150300Z AND 151500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS32 PGTW 141500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR
   
4. 014//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 25.9S 36.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 297 NM SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 21S (GEZANI) AS IT IS CURRENTLY TRANSITING SOUTHEASTWARD
    
19. AND AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
    
20. SIGNIFICANTLY AS OBSERVED BY A NOW FULLY FILLED EYE FEATURE REPLACED
    
21. BY A POORLY DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). SIGNIFICANT
    
22. AMOUNT OF DRY AIR CAN BE SEEN IN THE EIR IMAGERY SURROUNDING THE
    
23. SYSTEM AND BEGINNING TO ENTER THE CORE OF THE VORTEX. AS SUCH, THE
    
24. ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS FAVORABLE, DESPITE REMAINING
    
25. FAIRLY WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND LOW (0-5 KTS)
    
26. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
    
27. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATION OF A MICROWAVE EYE SEEN IN THE
    
28. 141056Z GPM GMI COLOR 37 GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS
    
29. ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUITE OF OBJECTIVE
    
30. AIDS AND DVORAK AGENCY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
35. CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST, INTERRUPTED BY A PASSING LONG-WAVE
    
36. BAROCLINIC TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
40.    DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 141130Z
    
42.    CIMSS AIDT: 95 KTS AT 141130Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-MINT: 87 KTS AT 141057Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 84 KTS AT 141200Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
47. UNFAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 0-5 KTS
    
49.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL
    
51.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM
    
52. 
    
53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
54.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
57. 
    
58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
59. 
    
60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 21S IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH AN
    
64. AMPLIFYING, DEEP-LAYER, BAROCLINIC TROUGH PROPAGATING FROM THE
    
65. SOUTHWEST. THIS NEWLY ESTABLISHED STEERING REGIME WILL GOVERN THE
    
66. TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT, THE
    
67. BAROCLINIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS EASTWARD, WHILE LEAVING TC 21S
    
68. BEHIND. DURING THAT TIME, THE PREVIOUSLY DOMINANT STEERING STR LOCATED
    
69. TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR WILL BUILD AND REGAIN STEERING CONTROL FOR
    
70. TC GEZANI YET AGAIN. DURING THAT PHASE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
    
71. BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE HOSTILE, WITH VWS REACHING 30+ KTS, SSTS
    
72. BECOMING COOLER DUE TO UPWELLING AND CONTINUOUS DRY AIR INTRUSION. AS
    
73. THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE SHALLOW, IT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ITS
    
74. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AROUND 72, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
    
75. COMPLETE BY TAU 96. IN REGARD TO INTENSITY, WEAKENING IS PREDICTED
    
76. THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT FORECAST, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STEADYING,
    
77. AROUND TAUS 36 AND 48, DUE TO TEMPORARY DECREASE IN VWS.
    
78. 
    
79. MODEL DISCUSSION: OVERALL TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING,
    
80. BUT STILL CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS LOW, PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
    
81. UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMELINE AND SHARPNESS OF THE
    
82. RECURVATURE IN THE TRACK, BEGINNING AT TAU 24. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
    
83. AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUITE ARE ON ONE SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
    
84. SUGGESTING A SHARP NORTHWARD TRACK TURN BEGINNING AT TAU 24, WITH THE
    
85. SYSTEM REACHING AS FAR AS 22 DEGREES SOUTH, JUST BEFORE IT GETS PICKED
    
86. UP BY THE STEERING RIDGE AND IS DRIVEN SOUTHWARD.  THE REMAINDER OF
    
87. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS DEPICT A SLOWER AND A MORE GRADUAL
    
88. TURN TOWARDS MADAGASCAR BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36, FOLLOWED BY A RAPID
    
89. CHANGE IN STEERING PATTERN, RESULTING IN A POLEWARD TURN IMMEDIATELY
    
90. AFTERWARDS. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
91. CONFIDENCE, AS THE GUIDANCE SUITE EXHIBITS A HIGHER DEGREE OF
    
92. CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH A SPREAD OF 25-35 KTS IS STILL EVIDENT, ALL
    
93. MEMBERS ARE UNIFIED IN PROJECTING A STEADY ATTENUATION TREND AT A
    
94. MODERATE RATE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE
    
95. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
    
96. 
    
97. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
98.    TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
    
99.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
100.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
101.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
102. NNNN

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