TCFA - 雅浦岛以北95W - 11.2N 137.1E - 未来的3号台风？ - JMA:GW

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-3-10 17:55

ECMWF 00Z系集，部分成员继续支持发展

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-3-10 17:56

JTWC 09Z分析升至T2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 100856
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (N OF YAP)
B. 10/0830Z
C. 11.66N
D. 137.66E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/21HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS A 1.5. PT YIELDS A 2.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-3-10 18:10

今天晚间ASCAT风场可以扫中，密切关注

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-3-10 19:04

今天下午HY-2B风场扫描

Enceladus · 发表于 2026-3-10 19:25

本帖最后由 Enceladus 于 2026-3-10 19:42 编辑

看形态显然还是TD，不过还有时间

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-3-10 20:02

GFS 06Z有所调强，初始场约999百帕，巅峰约989百帕

Enceladus · 发表于 2026-3-10 20:08

仍有明显槽性

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-3-10 20:10

JTWC 12Z分析维持T2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 101158
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (NW OF YAP)
B. 10/1130Z
C. 12.42N
D. 137.04E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED UNDER COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT
YIELD 2.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-3-10 20:13

JMA 12Z分析DT1.5 MET1.5 PT1.5 FT1.5 CI1.5，命名机会仍然不大

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:       missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:       4
featureDirectionOfMotion:       337 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:       3.6 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:       4
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:       1
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:       4
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:       1.5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:       1.5
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:       1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:       1.5
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:       1.5
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:       1.5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:       2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:       1.5
finalTNumberType:       1

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-3-10 20:42

SSD 12Z分析升至T2.5

TXPQ29 KNES 101228
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)
B.  10/1130Z
C.  12.8N
D.  138.6E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...5.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 2.0 DUE TO
DEVELOPING TREND. PT IS 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO FLUCTUATING
CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...ZENG

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