雅浦岛东南2605号热带风暴“黑格比”(05W.Hagupit) - 环流小巧，逐渐西行

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JTWC 00Z分析维持T2.5

TPPN10 PGTW 062352
A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 06/2330Z
C. 7.24N
D. 144.06E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

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SSD 00Z分析亦维持T2.5

TXPQ23 KNES 070005
TCSWNP
A.  05W (HAGUPIT)
B.  06/2330Z
C.  7.8N
D.  143.4E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...CENTER LOCATED <3/4 DEG FM A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING
IN A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON MET DUE TO IRREG/PULSING
CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

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ECMWF 18Z系集

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As of 8:00 AM today, 07 May 2026, the Low Pressure Area (LPA 05a) being monitored inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) is "UNLIKELY" to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm  "HAGUPIT" (formerly LPA 05b) is still being monitored outside the PAR.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

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今天凌晨HY-2B及HY-2C风场扫描

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今天早晨ASCAT风场扫到外围

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FNV3 18Z系集

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JTWC 03Z分析维持T2.5

TPPN10 PGTW 070256
A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT)
B. 07/0230Z
C. 7.45N
D. 143.58E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .55 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

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HKO热带气旋路径概率预报图（2026年5月7日更新）

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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NR. 2
Tropical Storm HAGUPIT
Issued at 11:00 AM, 07 May 2026
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.
“HAGUPIT” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE SEA SOUTH OF GUAM.
Location of Center (10:00 AM):
The center of Tropical Storm HAGUPIT was estimated based on all available data at 1,895 km East of Northeastern Mindanao (OUTSIDE PAR) (7.5°N, 143.5°E).
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa
Present Movement:
Westward at 20 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 280 km from the center
GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD
• HAGUPIT is forecast to move west northwestward throughout the forecast period. It will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) between Saturday (09 May) evening and Sunday (10 May) morning and will be given a local name CALOY.
• In the next 48 hours, HAGUPIT will further intensify peaking as a high-end tropical storm. Afterwards, due to unfavorable environmental conditions, it will begin to weaken and may be downgraded to tropical depression by next Tuesday (12 May) while over the Philippine Sea.
• HAGUPIT is less likely to directly affect the weather and sea conditions in the next 3 days.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.
Unless there is an intermediate issuance, the next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA