西澳北部近海三级强热带气旋“米切尔”(21U/20S.Mitchell) - 横穿澳大利亚北部，西行出海发展 - BoM:75KT JTWC:85KT

Ragasa

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Exmouth, Ningaloo, Coral Bay and Cape Cuvier areas are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 49
Issued at 3:57 am WST on Monday 9 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2, currently located near the North
West Cape and impacting the Exmouth region. Forecast to move down the Ningaloo
and Gascoyne coasts towards Carnarvon during Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: West of Onslow to Overlander Roadhouse, including Exmouth,
Carnarvon, and Denham, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and
western Gascoyne including Gascoyne Junction.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 4:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 22.3 degrees South 113.6 degrees East,
estimated to be 65 kilometres southwest of Exmouth and 285 kilometres north of
Carnarvon.
Movement: south southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), a category 2 cyclone, is expected to move
southwards near the Ningaloo and Carnarvon coasts this morning before taking a
track to the southeast later today, crossing the Gascoyne coast and moving over
land Monday night.

Mitchell has started to weaken but expected to maintain a category 2 strength
during this morning. Mitchell will weaken further in the afternoon and is
expected to be below cyclone strength Tuesday morning as it moves over land
through the southern Gascoyne.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150km/h are likely occurring over western parts of
the North West Cape. Destructive wind gusts may extend south down the coast to
Coral Bay during this morning, and then possibly further south to Carnarvon on
Monday afternoon.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about remaining
coastal areas from west of Onslow to Coral Bay, including Exmouth. GALES with
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend further south to Cape
Cuvier and inland parts of the western Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne this
morning. During Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western
Gascoyne, developing over Carnarvon in the afternoon and possibly to Denham,
Wooramel, Overlander Roadhouse, and Gascoyne Junction during the evening.

Localised moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is
possible over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on
Monday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to rise above the normal high tide mark
along the far west Pilbara coast including Exmouth on the morning's early high
tide, and at Coral Bay on Monday afternoon's high tide causing FLOODING of
low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne
coast, including Carnarvon on Monday afternoon's high tide and possibly further
south to Denham overnight Monday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am AWST Monday 09 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 am February 9	2	22.3S	113.6E	30
+6hr	10 am February 9	2	23.3S	113.4E	50
+12hr	4 pm February 9	2	24.3S	113.4E	70
+18hr	10 pm February 9	1	25.3S	113.9E	85
+24hr	4 am February 10	1	26.2S	114.6E	95
+36hr	4 pm February 10	tropical low	27.9S	117.0E	130
+48hr	4 am February 11	tropical low	28.3S	119.6E	165
+60hr	4 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	4 am February 12	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

Ragasa

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 012   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 113.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 113.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 24.0S 113.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 26.1S 114.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 27.8S 116.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 113.8E.
08FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
21 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z
IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 082100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING
   
4. NR 012//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 22.1S 113.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 21 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND AN INCREASINGLY
    
19. DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A 081102Z RCM-2 SAR IMAGE
    
20. REVEALED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
    
21. SYMMETRICAL WITH 60-70 KNOT WINDS WITHIN ALL QUADRANTS. SURFACE
    
22. OBSERVATIONS FROM LEARMONTH REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
    
23. AROUND 45 KTS WITH A PRESSURE MINIMUM OF 984.5 MB AS THE SYSTEM
    
24. PASSED BY ABOUT 20 NM TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
    
25. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM
    
26. LEARMONTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
27. CONFIDENCE BASED ON A STEADY WEAKENING TREND FROM THE MENTIONED SAR
    
28. IMAGE, SUPPORTED BY THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
    
29. ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 20S
    
30. REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG OUTFLOW
    
31. ALOFT GREATLY OFFSET BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
    
32. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND BORDERLINE (26-27 C) SEA
    
33. SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
38. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
42.    DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
43.    APRF: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
44.    CIMSS SATCON: 62 KTS AT 081800Z
    
45.    CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 081800Z
    
46.    CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 081800Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-MINT: 60 KTS AT 081719Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 55 KTS AT 081800Z
    
49. 
    
50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
51.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
52.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
53.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
54.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND TERRAIN INTERACTION
    
55. 
    
56. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
57.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
58.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
59.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
60. 
    
61. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
62. 
    
63. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
64. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
65. 
    
66. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD OVER THE
    
67. NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
    
68. TO THE EAST. 20S IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE COAST WITH A LANDFALL
    
69. NORTH OF LAKE MACLEOD OCCURRING JUST BEFORE TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12,
    
70. 20S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
    
71. RIDGE AXIS, PASSING EAST OF SHARK BAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
    
72. EXPECTED TO WORSEN THROUGH TAU 12 AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    
73. CONTINUE TO COOL, WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26 DEGREE
    
74. ISOTHERM WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. AS A RESULT, 20S IS FORECAST TO
    
75. WEAKEN THROUGH THE TIME OF ITS FINAL LANDFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
    
76. ONLY WORSEN AFTER LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR,
    
77. DRY AIR, AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. 20S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TC
    
78. STRENGTH AROUND TAU 36 AS THE SHALLOW VORTEX TRACKS FURTHER INLAND
    
79. INTO WESTERN AUSTRALIA.   
    
80. 
    
81. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
    
82. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO
    
83. TRACK THE SYSTEM WEST OF SHARK BAY. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM, CROSS-TRACK
    
84. SPREAD AT TAU 36 IS AROUND 30NM WITH MINIMAL ALONG-TRACK SPREAD,
    
85. LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY
    
86. GUIDANCE AGREES ON STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
    
87. WITH NO NOTABLE OUTLIERS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
    
88. NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
89. 
    
90. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
91.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
92.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
93. NNNN

复制代码

Ragasa

IDW24100
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Transmitters serving the Exmouth, Ningaloo, Coral Bay and Cape Cuvier areas are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 50
Issued at 4:53 am WST on Monday 9 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 2, currently located near the North
West Cape and impacting the Exmouth region. Forecast to move down the Ningaloo
and Gascoyne coasts towards Carnarvon during Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: East of Giralia to Overlander Roadhouse, including Exmouth,
Carnarvon, and Denham, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and
western Gascoyne including Gascoyne Junction.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 5:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 22.4 degrees South 113.5 degrees East,
estimated to be 85 kilometres southwest of Exmouth and 270 kilometres north of
Carnarvon.
Movement: south southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), a category 2 cyclone, is expected to move
southwards near the Ningaloo and Carnarvon coasts this morning before taking a
track to the southeast later today, crossing the Gascoyne coast and moving over
land Monday night.

Mitchell has started to weaken but expected to maintain a category 2 strength
during this morning. Mitchell will weaken further in the afternoon and is
expected to be below cyclone strength Tuesday morning as it moves over land
through the southern Gascoyne.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150km/h are likely occurring over western parts of
the North West Cape. Destructive wind gusts may extend south down the coast to
Coral Bay during this morning, and then possibly further south to Carnarvon on
Monday afternoon.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about remaining
coastal areas from east of Giralia to Coral Bay, including Exmouth. GALES with
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to extend further south to Cape
Cuvier and inland parts of the western Pilbara and far northern Gascoyne this
morning. During Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western
Gascoyne, developing over Carnarvon in the afternoon and possibly to Denham,
Wooramel, Overlander Roadhouse, and Gascoyne Junction during the evening.

Localised moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is
possible over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region on
Monday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to rise above the normal high tide mark
along the far west Pilbara coast including Exmouth on the morning's early high
tide, and at Coral Bay on Monday afternoon's high tide causing FLOODING of
low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne
coast, including Carnarvon on Monday afternoon's high tide and possibly further
south to Denham overnight Monday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts
and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am AWST Monday 09 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling  13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 am February 9	2	22.4S	113.5E	30
+6hr	11 am February 9	2	23.4S	113.3E	50
+12hr	5 pm February 9	2	24.4S	113.4E	70
+18hr	11 pm February 9	1	25.4S	114.0E	80
+24hr	5 am February 10	1	26.3S	114.7E	95
+36hr	5 pm February 10	tropical low	28.6S	117.3E	110
+48hr	5 am February 11	tropical low	28.2S	119.7E	140
+60hr	5 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	5 am February 12	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

pocketbox

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0119 UTC 09/02/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 23.0S
Longitude: 113.5E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (194 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (25 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.5/W1.5/24HRS STT:W1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  09/0600: 24.0S 113.5E:     025 (045):  045  (085):  988
+12:  09/1200: 24.9S 113.8E:     035 (065):  045  (085):  987
+18:  09/1800: 25.8S 114.4E:     040 (080):  045  (085):  987
+24:  10/0000: 26.8S 115.3E:     050 (095):  035  (065):  994
+36:  10/1200: 28.0S 117.9E:     075 (135):  030  (055):  997
+48:  11/0000: 27.7S 119.5E:     075 (135):  025  (045):  999
+60:  11/1200:             :              :            :     
+72:  12/0000:             :              :            :     
+96:  13/0000:             :              :            :     
+120: 14/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is moving south along the Gascoyne coast.

Mitchell was located using Learmonth radar and there is high confidence in its
position.

Dvorak Analysis: DT=2.5 based on curved band with 0.4 wrap. MET is 2.5, with a
W+ 24-hour trend and PAT agrees. FT 2.5. CI held at 3.5.
Latest Objective guidance (1-minute mean) at 0000 UTC: ADT 51 kn, AiDT 45 kn,
DPRINT 47 kn, DMINT 55 kn (2242 UTC). Intensity analysed as 45 knots.

Deep convection decreased overnight but has been reinvigorated in the past few
hours to the west of the system centre. Mitchell is in a marginal environment.
Sea surface temperatures are around 26   C, dry air is wrapping around the
equatorward side of  the system and proximity to land are all likely to limit
any re-intensification. CIMSS 00 UTC upper-level wind analysis estimates
deep-layer vertical wind shear as north-northeasterly at 15.8 kn and is
expected to remain favourable through Monday while poleward upper-level
divergence remains strong, aided by a mid-level trough approaching from the
southwest. Intensity is forecast to remain steady at 45 knots until Mitchell
moves overland and weakens.

Mitchell is moving south along the periphery of a mid-level ridge located to
the east. During Monday, Mitchell will turn to the southeast and cross the
coast due to the mid-level trough approaches from the southwest.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0730 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 53
Issued at 7:52 am WST on Monday 9 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 1, impacting the Ningaloo coast. Forecast to move down the Ningaloo and Gascoyne coasts towards Carnarvon during Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Ningaloo to Overlander Roadhouse, including Carnarvon, and Denham, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and western Gascoyne including Gascoyne Junction.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Exmouth to Giralia.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 23.0 degrees South 113.5 degrees East, estimated to be 135 kilometres south southwest of Exmouth and 210 kilometres north of Carnarvon.

Movement: south southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), a category 1 cyclone, is expected to move southwards along the Ningaloo and Gascoyne coasts this morning. Mitchell is expected to track to the southeast later today and maintain category 1 strength until it crosses the Gascoyne Coast, expected later on Monday.

Mitchell will weaken overnight Monday and is expected to be below cyclone strength Tuesday morning as it moves over land through the southern Gascoyne.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about coastal areas south of Exmouth to north of Cape Cuvier, extending to far northern Gascoyne. During Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne, developing over Carnarvon in the afternoon and possibly to Denham, Wooramel, Overlander Roadhouse, and Gascoyne Junction during the evening.

Isolated HEAVY to INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region during Monday and continuing overnight into Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to rise above the normal high tide mark along the far west Pilbara coast including Exmouth on the morning's early high tide, and at Coral Bay on Monday afternoon's high tide causing FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon on Monday afternoon's high tide and possibly further south to Denham overnight Monday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm AWST Monday 09 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am February 9	1	23.0S	113.5E	20
+6hr	2 pm February 9	1	24.0S	113.5E	45
+12hr	8 pm February 9	1	24.9S	113.8E	65
+18hr	2 am February 10	1	25.8S	114.4E	80
+24hr	8 am February 10	tropical low	26.8S	115.3E	95
+36hr	8 pm February 10	tropical low	28.0S	117.9E	135
+48hr	8 am February 11	tropical low	27.7S	119.5E	135
+60hr	8 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	8 am February 12	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 013   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z --- NEAR 23.1S 113.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 113.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 25.2S 113.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 27.2S 115.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 28.2S 117.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 113.7E.
09FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
55 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 090000Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWLEVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 090300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING
   
4. NR 013//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 23.1S 113.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 55 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
    
13. AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 10 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WITH CONVECTION NOW SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE
    
20. SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO THE
    
21. MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR ACTING ON THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED RADAR
    
22. IMAGERY FROM LEARMONTH SHOWS THE RADAR EYE HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY
    
23. MORE RAGGED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, A 082242Z WSFM 37
    
24. GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A BREAK IN THE MICROWAVE EYE ALONG THE
    
25. NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
26. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION
    
27. FROM THE WSFM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS
    
28. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
    
29. AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
    
30. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 20S REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
    
31. CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT GREATLY OFFSET BY MODERATE
    
32. NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND
    
33. BORDERLINE (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED
    
36. ON THE OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
37. 
    
38. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
39. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA
    
40. 
    
41. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
42.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
43.    DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
44.    APRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
45.    CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 090000Z
    
46.    CIMSS AIDT: 45 KTS AT 090000Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-MINT: 55 KTS AT 082242Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 47 KTS AT 090000Z
    
49. 
    
50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
51.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
52.    SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
    
53.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
54.    OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
    
55. ENTRAINMENT
    
56. 
    
57. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
58.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
59.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
60.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
61. 
    
62. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
63. 
    
64. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
65. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
66. 
    
67. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD OVER THE
    
68. NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
    
69. TO THE EAST. 20S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NORTH OF LAKE MACLEOD
    
70. WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, 20S IS FORECAST TO TURN
    
71. SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS, PASSING JUST
    
72. EAST OF SHARK BAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
    
73. WORSEN AFTER LANDFALL WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, DRY AIR,
    
74. AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. 20S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TC STRENGTH
    
75. NO LATER THAN TAU 36 AS THE SHALLOW VORTEX TRACKS FURTHER INLAND
    
76. INTO WESTERN AUSTRALIA.   
    
77. 
    
78. 
    
79. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
    
80. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF ONLY 30 NM AND AN
    
81. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 90 NM AT TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
    
82. PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
83. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE
    
84. FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO NOTABLE OUTLIERS. THE JTWC INTENSITY
    
85. FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
86. 
    
87. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
88.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
89.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
90. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘涛  签发：董林  2026 年 02 月 09 日 10 时
“米切尔”向南偏西方向移动

时  间: 2月9日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “米切尔”，MITCHELL

中心位置: 南纬23.0度，东经113.5度

强度等级: 热带气旋（1级）

最大风力: 9级，24米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 984百帕

参考位置: 距离西澳大利亚州埃克斯茅斯南偏西方向约135公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“米切尔”由12级减弱为9级

预报结论: “米切尔”将以每小时约14公里左右的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度缓慢减弱。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月9日08时00分）

“盖扎尼”向偏西方向移动

时  间: 2月9日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “盖扎尼”，GEZANI

中心位置: 南纬18.0度，东经55.4度

强度等级: 热带风暴

最大风力: 8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 1000百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋法属留尼旺偏北方向约330公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“盖扎尼”强度维持

预报结论: “盖扎尼”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图2  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月9日08时00分）

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 54
Issued at 11:41 am WST on Monday 9 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) moving along the Gascoyne coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Coral Bay to Overlander Roadhouse, including Carnarvon and Denham, and extending through the western Gascoyne.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Ningaloo, and inland parts of the western Gascoyne including Gascoyne Junction.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 11:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 23.8 degrees South 113.3 degrees East, estimated to be 130 kilometres north northwest of Carnarvon and 85 kilometres southwest of Coral Bay.

Movement: south southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), is moving south along the Gascoyne coast. Mitchell is expected to maintain category 1 strength until it crosses the Gascoyne Coast later on Monday, then moves inland to the southeast and quickly weakens.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about coastal areas from Coral Bay to south of Cape Cuvier. During Monday, GALES are likely to extend further south through the Gascoyne coast, developing over Carnarvon in the afternoon and possibly to Denham, Wooramel and Overlander Roadhouse during the evening.

Isolated HEAVY to INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region during Monday and continuing overnight into Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to rise above the normal high tide mark along the Gascoyne coast including at Coral Bay on Monday afternoon's high tide causing FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected at Carnarvon on Monday afternoon's high tide and possibly further south to Denham overnight Monday.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for parts of the Gascoyne, Central West and Central Wheatbelt. Refer to https://www.bom.gov.au/weather-and-climate/warnings-and-alerts for further information.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Monday 09 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 am February 9	1	23.8S	113.3E	20
+6hr	5 pm February 9	1	24.7S	113.5E	45
+12hr	11 pm February 9	1	25.6S	114.1E	65
+18hr	5 am February 10	1	26.5S	114.8E	80
+24hr	11 am February 10	tropical low	27.3S	115.6E	95
+36hr	11 pm February 10	tropical low	28.1S	118.0E	115
+48hr	11 am February 11	tropical low	27.5S	119.8E	145
+60hr	11 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	11 am February 12	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

pocketbox

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0722 UTC 09/02/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 24.2S
Longitude: 113.3E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: south (188 deg)
Speed of Movement: 11 knots (20 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (25 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  09/1200: 25.1S 113.8E:     025 (045):  045  (085):  983
+12:  09/1800: 26.1S 114.4E:     035 (065):  040  (075):  986
+18:  10/0000: 26.9S 115.1E:     040 (080):  035  (065):  989
+24:  10/0600: 27.7S 116.2E:     050 (095):  030  (055):  993
+36:  10/1800: 28.0S 118.4E:     065 (125):  030  (055):  992
+48:  11/0600:             :              :            :     
+60:  11/1800:             :              :            :     
+72:  12/0600:             :              :            :     
+96:  13/0600:             :              :            :     
+120: 14/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is moving south along the Gascoyne coast.

Mitchell was located using Carnarvon radar and there is high confidence in its
position.

Dvorak Analysis: DT=2.5 based on curved band with 0.4 wrap. MET is 2.5, with a
W 24-hour trend and PAT agrees. FT 2.5. CI held at 3.0.
Latest Objective guidance (1-minute mean) at 0600 UTC: ADT 49 kn, AiDT 42 kn,
DPRINT 43 kn, DMINT 45 kn (0548 UTC), SATCON 54 kn. Intensity analysed as 45
knots.

Deep convection with limited curvature has persisted over the last 6 hours,
predominately over water in the western semi-circle. Mitchell is in a marginal
environment. Sea surface temperatures are around 26   C, dry air is wrapping
around the equatorward side of  the system and proximity to land are all likely
to limit any re-intensification. CIMSS 06 UTC upper-level wind analysis
estimates deep-layer vertical wind shear as northerly at 20.5 kn and is more
marginal while favourable poleward upper-level divergence remains strong, aided
by a mid-level trough approaching from the southwest. Intensity is forecast to
remain steady at 45 knots until Mitchell moves overland and weakens.

Mitchell is moving south along the periphery of a mid-level ridge located to
the east. Later Monday, Mitchell will turn to the southeast and cross the coast
due to the mid-level trough approaching from the southwest.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/1330 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 55
Issued at 2:45 pm WST on Monday 9 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U) approaching Carnarvon.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
South of Coral Bay to Overlander Roadhouse, including Carnarvon and Denham, and extending through the western Gascoyne.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Coral Bay.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 24.2 degrees South 113.3 degrees East, estimated to be 80 kilometres north northwest of Carnarvon and 130 kilometres south southwest of Coral Bay.

Movement: south at 20 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), is moving south along the Gascoyne coast. Mitchell is expected to maintain category 1 strength until it crosses the Gascoyne Coast later on Monday, then moves inland to the southeast and quickly weakens.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about coastal areas south of Coral Bay to north of Carnarvon. GALES will extend further south through the Gascoyne coast, developing over Carnarvon this afternoon and possibly to Denham, Wooramel and Overlander Roadhouse during the evening.

Isolated HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over the west Gascoyne today and continuing overnight into Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to rise above the normal high tide mark along the Gascoyne coast north of Carnarvon on Monday afternoon's high tide causing FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are possible further south to Denham overnight Monday.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for parts of the Gascoyne, Central West and Central Wheatbelt. Refer to https://www.bom.gov.au/weather-and-climate/warnings-and-alerts for further information.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm AWST Monday 09 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm February 9	1	24.2S	113.3E	20
+6hr	8 pm February 9	1	25.1S	113.8E	45
+12hr	2 am February 10	1	26.1S	114.4E	65
+18hr	8 am February 10	tropical low	26.9S	115.1E	80
+24hr	2 pm February 10	tropical low	27.7S	116.2E	95
+36hr	2 am February 11	tropical low	28.0S	118.4E	125
+48hr	2 pm February 11	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	2 am February 12	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	2 pm February 12	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 014   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z --- NEAR 24.5S 113.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 113.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 26.5S 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 28.2S 116.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 113.6E. 09FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z
AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 090900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING
   
4. NR 014//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 24.5S 113.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 138 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
    
13. AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 14 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), SURFACE OBSERVATIONS,
    
19. AND METEOROLOGICAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
    
20. 20S IS TRANSITING ALONG THE LITTORAL REGION OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA,
    
21. NORTH OF CARNARVON. RECENT RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED
    
22. SOUTHEASTWARD AND THAT IT IS GENERALLY PARALLELING THE COAST TOWARDS
    
23. SHARK BAY. SURFACE WINDS AT CARNARVON REMAIN EASTERLY, CONSTRAINING
    
24. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE NORTH OF THE STATION.
    
25. HOWEVER, A RAPID SHIFT SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AS THE LLCC PASSES VERY
    
26. CLOSE TO THE STATION IN THE NEXT HOUR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
    
27. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE UPPER QUARTILE
    
28. OF OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
    
29. DEGRADED AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD. SEA SURFACE
    
30. TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NOW SUB-26C, AND LAND MASS PROXIMITY IS
    
31. INDUCING FRICTIONAL ATTENUATION AND ENTRAINMENT OF ADIABATICALLY DRY
    
32. CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE EAST, WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS
    
33. RAPIDLY INCREASING.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: GRADIENT BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
    
38. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND A MID- TO
    
39. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.
    
40. 
    
41. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
42.    PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
    
43.    DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
44.    APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
45.    CIMSS SATCON: 54 KTS AT 090548Z
    
46.    CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 090630Z
    
47.    CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 090630Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-MINT: 45 KTS AT 090548Z
    
49.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 52 KTS AT 090600Z
    
50. 
    
51. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
52.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
53.    SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
    
54.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
55.    OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION, ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL
    
56. CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE CORE FROM THE EAST.
    
57. 
    
58. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
59.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
60.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
61.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
62. 
    
63. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
64. 
    
65. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST IS TRUNCATED TO 24
    
66. HOURS.
    
67. 
    
68. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (MITCHELL) HAS
    
69. RECURVED AROUND THE STR AXIS AND IS NOW ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD
    
70. ALONG THE STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR OVER CENTRAL
    
71. AUSTRALIA AND AN APPROACHING BAROCLINIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
    
72. SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN
    
73. PERIPHERY OF SHARK BAY, WITH LANDFALL ANTICIPATED AT THE SOUTHERN
    
74. TERMINUS OF THE BAY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL
    
75. SUBSEQUENTLY TRAVERSE FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
    
76. FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
    
77. WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES SHARK BAY DUE TO ENHANCED SHEAR, DRY AIR
    
78. ENTRAINMENT, AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. UPON LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL
    
79. UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOLYSIS DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL DRAG AND
    
80. THERMODYNAMIC DECOUPLING OF THE VORTEX.
    
81. 
    
82. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) CONSENSUS
    
83. EXHIBITS HIGH CORRELATION THROUGH THE SHORT FORECAST PERIOD,
    
84. DEPICTING MINIMAL CROSS- OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
    
85. ALIGNED WITH THE MULTI-MODEL MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
    
86. GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONGRUENT, WITH ALL DYNAMICAL MEMBERS DEPICTING
    
87. RAPID WEAKENING CONCLUDING IN DISSIPATION WITHIN 24 HOURS, LENDING
    
88. HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.
    
89. 
    
90. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
91.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
92.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
93. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘涛  签发：董林  2026 年 02 月 09 日 18 时
“米切尔”向南偏东方向移动

时  间: 2月9日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “米切尔”，MITCHELL

中心位置: 南纬24.2度，东经113.3度

强度等级: 热带气旋（1级）

最大风力: 9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 984百帕

参考位置: 距离西澳大利亚州埃克斯茅斯南偏西方向约270公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“米切尔”由12级减弱为9级

预报结论: “米切尔”将以每小时约20公里左右的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度缓慢减弱。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月9日14时00分）

“盖扎尼”向偏西方向移动

时  间: 2月9日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “盖扎尼”，GEZANI

中心位置: 南纬17.8度，东经54.8度

强度等级: 热带风暴

最大风力: 8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 999百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋法属留尼旺北偏西方向约350公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“盖扎尼”强度维持

预报结论: “盖扎尼”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图2  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月9日14时00分）