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本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-2-15 22:20 编辑
WTIO30 FMEE 151249
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI)
2.A POSITION 2026/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 40.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 335 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 220 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/16 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 205 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55
24H: 2026/02/16 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 400 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 45
36H: 2026/02/17 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 425 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 260 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 0
48H: 2026/02/17 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SW: 400 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 0
60H: 2026/02/18 00 UTC: 32.0 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SW: 345 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 0
72H: 2026/02/18 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 120
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/19 12 UTC: 37.8 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 250 SW: 445 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 150
120H: 2026/02/20 12 UTC: 39.6 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 425 SW: 500 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 285 NW: 95
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GEZANI HAS KEPT AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN
WITH CONVECTION INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND WRAPPING AT
TIMES IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES, AN
EYE FEATURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE FORMING AGAIN. IN
ADDITION, THE SYSTEM HAS KEPT A MORE SUSTAINED EASTWARD MOVEMENT THAN
INITIALY FORECAST, DELAYING ITS NORTHEASTWARD TURN. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS YIELDS A DT OF 4.5 AND A MET OF 4.5, ADJUSTED TO 4.0 BY THE
PT. THE FINAL T NUMBER IS BASED ON THE PT. THE 1022Z GPM AND MORE
PARTICULARLY THE 1116Z GCOM-W MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING'S DATA, WITH AN EYE STRUCTURE AT
89GHZ. THE CONVECTIVE CORE REMAINS PARTIALLY OPEN ON ITS NORTH TO
NORTHWEST SIDE UNDER THE EFFECT OF WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. GIVEN
THAT THIS MORNING'S ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED WINDS BETWEEN 65 AND 70 KT,
THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONFIGURATION COMPARED TO THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 65 KT, AT THE HIGH END OF MOST
CIMSS OBJECTIVE AIDS, CLOSE TO DPRINT AND DMINT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SATCON (60 KT). THE SYSTEM'S SHEARED STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THAT
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE MAINLY PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CIRCULATION, IN LINE WITH WHAT MOST NUMERICAL MODELS
SUGGEST.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN MODIFIED IN THE SHORT TERM, BRINGING THE
SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THE RECENT TREND WITH A MORE SUSTAINED EASTWARD MOVEMENT, IN
ADDITION TO THE LATEST NWP OUTPUT. UNDER THE EFFECT OF A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA COMBINED WITH A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, A NORTHEASTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND UNTIL MONDAY MORNING, BUT IT SHOULD NOT REACH AS FAR
NORTH AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND WILL KEEP A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ZONAL
COMPONENT. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE TRACK COULD TURN SOUTHEAST,
PASSING CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE),
INFLUENCED BY ANOTHER RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE MOVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS RIDGE, DRIVING GEZANI TOWARDS MORE TEMPERATE LATITUDES.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GEZANI IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE UNTIL THIS EVENING, THEN THE NORTH-EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD
MAKE THE SYSTEM MORE VULNERABLE TO WIND SHEAR BY THE END OF THE NIGHT
AND ON MONDAY MORNING, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING TO SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, ON MONDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT, A
NEW INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS POSSIBLE IN
CONNECTION WITH THE RESUMPTION OF EASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE SHEAR, WHICH WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE
UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF, THEREBY IN CONDITIONS OF LOW SHEAR,
WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO KEEP ITS SYMMETRICAL DEEP WARM CORE,
AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION, DESPITE THE DECREASING OCEANIC
POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES SOUTH, WITH PROCESSES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF A
SUBTROPICAL STORM. FROM THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS
TROPICAL (OR SUBTROPICAL) FEATURES AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS AND
WITH A NEW INCREASE IN SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW.
EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE-FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY AND POSSIBLE STORM-FORCE WINDS ON
COASTAL AREAS FROM MONDAY NOON UNTIL THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. NOTE THAT
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE, ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY.
- HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS BETWEEN MONDAY NOON AND
TUESDAY NOON.
MOZAMBIQUE (INHAMBANE PROVINCE):
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS UNTIL MONDAY ALONG THE COASTS OF MAPUTO,
GAZA AND INHAMBANE PROVINCES (DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY SWELL
ADDING TO THE EFFECTS OF GEZANI). |
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-2-15 10:03
