关岛东南2604号热带风暴“森拉克”(04W.Sinlaku) - 西行趋向关岛，数值看好强度

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T3.0

TPPN10 PGTW 100315
A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 10/0230Z
C. 8.10N
D. 150.50E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU

红豆棒冰冰

HKO热带气旋路径概率预报图（2026年4月10日更新）

hei

有雲捲眼之可能?

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 00Z继续预报将在136E附近转向北上，巅峰约922百帕

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 06Z分析DT3 MET2 PT2.5 FT2.5 CI2.5

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        4
featureDirectionOfMotion:        113 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        2.57 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        3
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        2
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        4
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2.5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        3
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        1
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2.5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2.5
finalTNumberType:        2

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 00Z预报+126h左右达到巅峰，气压约907百帕

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析升至T3.5

TXPQ22 KNES 100610
TCSWNP
A.  04W (SINLAKU)
B.  10/0530Z
C.  7.7N
D.  151.1E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T3.5/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 8/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10 SCALE
DT=3.5 MET=3.0 PT=3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...FISHER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T3.0

TPPN10 PGTW 100615
A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU)
B. 10/0530Z
C. 8.03N
D. 150.40E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU

hei

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-4-10 14:14
GFS 00Z继续预报将在136E附近转向北上

EC-AIFS 在146E以東轉向

Enceladus

贴一张ASCAT B UHR风场