南半球各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年7月－2025年6月）

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 271137
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 27/05/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin is a buffer zone, with the trade winds crossing the equator and feeding the north-hemispheric monsoon.
Convective activity remains low, with a few storm clusters present in the slowing trade winds north of a Diego-Garcia /
Coetivy line, west of 65E.
Current equatorial wave activity (Rossby and Kelvin waves, MJO over the Maritime Continent) mainly has an influence
on cyclogenesis potential over the northern hemisphere tropics but has no effect on our basin due to the unfavorable
winter basin configuration.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 281126
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 28/05/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin is a buffer zone, with the trade winds crossing the equator and feeding the north-hemispheric monsoon.
Convective activity remains low.
Current equatorial wave activity (Rossby and Kelvin waves, MJO over the Maritime Continent) mainly has an influence
on cyclogenesis potential over the northern hemisphere tropics but has no effect on our basin due to the unfavorable
winter basin configuration.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 290919
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 29/05/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin has a Near Equatorial Through (NET) configuration across its entire width. Convective activity is almost nonexistent.
Current equatorial wave activity (Rossby and Kelvin waves, MJO over the Maritime Continent) mainly has an influence
on cyclogenesis potential over the northern hemisphere tropics but has no effect on our basin due to the unfavorable
winter basin configuration.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.
In the longer term, no significant change in the undulatory context, which remains unfavorable to cyclogenesis in our
basin.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 300945
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 30/05/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
No significant convective activity over the basin.
Current equatorial wave activity (Rossby and Kelvin waves, MJO over the Maritime Continent) mainly has an influence
on cyclogenesis potential over the northern hemisphere tropics but has no effect on our basin due to the unfavorable
winter basin configuration.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.
In the longer term, no significant change in the undulatory context, which remains unfavorable to cyclogenesis in our
basin.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 311035
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 31/05/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
No significant convective activity over the basin. A few convective clusters are observed in the trade wind slowdown
zone over the northeast of our basin.
Current equatorial wave activity (Rossby and Kelvin waves, MJO over the Maritime Continent) mainly has an influence
on cyclogenesis potential over the northern hemisphere tropics but has no effect on our basin due to the unfavorable
winter basin configuration.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 011124
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 01/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
No significant convective activity over the basin. A few convective clusters are observed in the trade wind slowdown
zone over the northeast of our basin.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 021039
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 02/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin has a winter configuration, with a near-equatorial trough (NET) growing westwards around 3°S and from 85°E
to 73°E so far. Further west, a southerly equatorial trade wind feeds the Indian monsoon.
Thunderstorm convection is underway as the trade winds slow south of the TPE and, more occasionally, in the
Seychelles.
The basin has entered in a dry MJO phase, which, coupled with the positive IOD phase and strong shear, results in an
easterly wind anomaly over the basin, unfavorable to cyclogenesis.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 031009
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 03/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin has a winter configuration, with a very short branch of a quasi Near Equatorial Talweg (NEAT) stretching
between 73 and 87°E and undulating around 3°S. Further west, a southerly equatorial trade wind feeds the Indian
monsoon.
Thunderstorm convection is underway as the trade winds slow south of the TPE and, more occasionally, in the
Seychelles.
According to the PV200, the basin is in a rather dry MJO phase. This is coupled with strong shear, producing
unfavorable conditions for cyclogenesis.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.
A very slight signal can be observed on ensemblist models to the east of the basin.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 041029
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 04/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin mostly remains in a winter pattern, although featuring a weak Near Equatorial Trough (NET) branch between
70 and 90°E along 3°S. Convection remains active along the southern edge of the NET in the area of slowing trade
winds.
The weak NET currently lacks convergence and vorticity, and should dissipate in the coming days. The large-scale
pattern should thus remain durably unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 051008
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 05/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin has a predominantly winter configuration, but features a branch of the Near Equatorial Trough (NET) between
70 and 90°E, around 4°S. Convective activity is fairly sparse, focusing mainly on the eastern end of the basin, on the
southern side of this NET, in the zone where the trade winds slow down.
With a rather neutral MJO phase tending towards a dry phase, and with winter setting in over the basin, the
cyclogenesis context is and will remain unfavorable.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.
The unfavorable environment will not change over the next 10 days.