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WTIO30 FMEE 161843
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 48/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI)
2.A POSITION 2026/02/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.6 S / 43.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 45
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/17 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 370 SW: 465 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55
24H: 2026/02/17 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SW: 400 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
36H: 2026/02/18 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
48H: 2026/02/18 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 360 SW: 360 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 140
60H: 2026/02/19 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 325 SW: 390 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 140
72H: 2026/02/19 18 UTC: 41.3 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 345 SW: 390 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 215
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/20 18 UTC: 46.7 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 465 SW: 425 NW: 530
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 285
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THUNDERSTORM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE CENTER, WHICH
HAS MOVED BACK UNDER THE CONVECTIVE MASS. THE 1530Z WSFM MICROWAVE
IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THIS IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO MONDAY. A PARTIAL
SAR RCM-1 PASS AT 1550Z MEASURED WINDS WELL ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE IN
THE SYSTEM'S WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. DESPITE POSSIBLE OVERESTIMATION,
THIS TREND IS PERFECTLY IN LINE WITH SOME MODEL OUTPUT, ESPECIALLY
THE ECMWF MODEL AND SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS AROME, HAFS-A
OR HWRF. HOWEVER, A 1753Z ASCAT-B PASS, AVAILABLE AFTER ANALYSIS
TIME, SUGGESTS WINDS OF ONLY 55 KT, WHICH COULD INDICATE THAT WINDS
HAVE DECREASED AGAIN BETWEEN 16 AND 18 UTC OR THAT THE WIND PATTERN
IS TOO SMALL FOR THE ASCAT'S COARSE RESOLUTION. INTENSITY WAS
ESTIMATED AT 65 KT, REFLECTING THE PEAK INTENSITY CAPTURED BY THE SAR
PASS, WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ONLY PRESENT IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS PEAK INTENSITY AT CYCLONE STAGE WAS POSSIBLY
TEMPORARY, AS SUGGESTED BY THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN CONVECTION AFTER
1730Z, AND AS SIMULATED BY SOME NWP OUTPUT. ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IS MORE TO THE NORTH THAN ESTIMATED IN THIS
ANALYSIS (NEAR 25.3S / 43.7E), SO THE CENTER OF GEZANI IS ACTUALLY
ABOUT 45 KM FROM THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND APPEARS TO BE NEAR ITS
CLOSEST POINT (THIS WILL BE CORRECTED IN THE BEST-TRACK). THESE DATA
ALSO CONFIRM THAT GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE MALAGASY COAST,
BUT THAT STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY AT SEA.
FURTHERMORE, THE 12UTC ANALYSIS HAS BEEN REVISED TO SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM (50 KT) IN THE BEST-TRACK, TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE BEGINNING
OF CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM AND AN OCEANSAT-3 PASS SUGGESTING WINDS OF 50 KT.
GEZANI'S TRACK IS NOW TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM'S CENTER SHOULD TRACK ABOUT 40-50 KM OFF THE COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. FROM TUESDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE AN ACCELERATING SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES. SPREAD WITHIN MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LOW.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH, STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE ENABLED WINDS TO INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE UNDER THE
CUT-OFF, THUS FAVORING A DECREASE IN SHEAR. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN
THE DEEP, SYMMETRICAL WARM CORE UNTIL THURSDAY, AND SO AN INTENSITY
CLOSE TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, THE SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 30S SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING
TREND FROM WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING SHEAR, GEZANI SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEFINITIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES.
EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- GALE-FORCE WINDS ONGOING TONIGHT, WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
STORM-FORCE WINDS ALONG COASTAL AREAS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON
TUESDAY.
- HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS UNTIL TOMORROW.=
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-2-16 10:20
