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JTWC/05W/#14/07-07 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR
014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 26.8N 121.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 102 NM NORTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY
REORGANIZING TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DANAS) AS IT IS TRANSITING
JUST NORTH OF TAIWAN, FOLLOWING AN EARLIER LANDFALL OVER THE ISLAND
AND
ASSOCIATED TERRAIN INTERACTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW
(0-5 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. AS THE VORTEX IS YET AGAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BUILDING WITHIN THE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO
A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS CURRENTLY NEARLY
FULLY OBSCURED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS THEREFORE PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE IDENTIFICATION AND TRACING OF THE FOCAL POINT
OF CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED
FIXES LISTED BELOW, CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
IMPACTS OF THE LAND INTERACTION, AS WELL AS IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING THE VORTEX RE-EMERGENCE OVER WATER.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
SOUTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 070528Z
CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 070530Z
CIMSS AIDT: 69 KTS AT 070530Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 070717Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 070700Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE OF MAINLAND CHINA AND ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITHIN THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS HOWEVER, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE, WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM, ASSUMING THE STEERING AND LEADING TS DANAS INTO LANDFALL
OVER CHINA. THIS SECONDARY LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 24. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD,
OVER LAND, AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY, AS IT YET
AGAIN BENEFITS FROM CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, TS 05W IS FORECAST TO REACH 45-50 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND
24.
AFTERWARDS, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL FULL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE INITIAL 24-36 HOURS, AS INDICATED BY CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD OF 90 NM AT LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 36, BOTH CROSS-TRACK AND
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASE, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH
MODELS HANDLING THE WEAKENING OF THE VORTEX FOLLOWING THE LANDFALL.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING. JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND INDICATES
5-10 KTS POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION BASED ON AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE, MESOSCALE HAFS-A MODEL, AS WELL AS
CONSIDERING ENVIRONMENT HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: 理可的呆萌呆毛
发表于 2025-7-7 14:29
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