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发表于 2025-10-12 17:23
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JTWC/29W/#17/10-12 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-10-12 17:25 编辑
WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (NAKRI) WARNING NR
017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 30.9N 135.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 257 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 29W (NAKRI) WITH A WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC)
AND DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AS IT
CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND GOOD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES WITH THE
HIMAWARI-9 SATELLITE LIMITED POSITIONING DATA TO STILL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AGENCY
FIXES LISTED BELOW AND IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, DUE TO THE
LACK OF AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY AIDS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 120110Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS NAKRI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RE-STRENGTHENING,
WHICH HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH
WARM (28-29 C) WATERS WITH LOW 5-10 KTS VWS, OFFSET BY SURROUNDING BY
DRY AIR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY START WRAPPING INTO THE
CORE. AT THE SAME TIME, AROUND TAU 48, TS NAKRI WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER
(27-28 C) SSTS AND UNFAVORABLE WIND SHEAR (30-40 KTS). DEGRADING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT), WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONCLUDE BY TAU 72.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD UNDER 40 NM THROUGH TAU 48,
EXPANDING JUST SLIGHTLY AFTERWARDS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH THE JTWC
PREDICTION SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN HAFS-A GUIDANCE AND ASSESSED WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KTS AT TAUS 24 AND 36. AS TS NAKRI BEGINS TO
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND TAU 36, IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, AS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND
36, AS COAMPS-TC AND HAFS PROJECT A SHORT-TERM STABILIZATION OF THE
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS, WHILE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER MODELS INDICATE A
WEAKENING TREND, LIKELY DRIVEN BY INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-10-12 17:23
