牙买加以南五级飓风“梅利莎”(13L.Melissa) - 风眼深邃对流强劲，严重威胁牙买加 - NHC:150KT 906mb

恒信金仁

这货路径也一直往西南漂的感觉

觀雲趣

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Ck.

依旧黄金唱片

恒信金仁

这比昨天惊悚，毕竟二段跳的话没实测可以170了

Ragasa

WTNT33 KNHC 272352
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING
WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 78.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located  
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 78.6 West. Melissa is moving
slowly toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A slow turn toward
the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northeast at a slightly faster forward speed on Tuesday.  A
northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected on
Wednesday and Thursday.  On the forecast track, the core of Melissa
is expected to move near or over Jamaica by early Tuesday, across
southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern or
central Bahamas on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica.  However, Melissa is
expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely
powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength
when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is
909 mb (26.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions
are expected to begin late tonight and continue into Tuesday.
Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially
in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the
windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent
stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area starting Tuesday evening into Wednesday
morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti late
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday.  Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the
Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday with hurricane conditions
also possible on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible.  Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with
local amounts to 25 inches, is expected by Monday into Wednesday
resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash
flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica late tonight and on Tuesday.  Peak storm
surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and
to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This
storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On
the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the
possibility of 1 to 3 feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

hei

SAR S1A都掃到爆燈的130節，Melissa究竟有幾強呀

Ck.

更加圆润的黄金唱片

恒信金仁

话说牙买加西南侧海水实力到底有多可怕，给一个C5这么龟速都不带弱的？简直装了加热机一样

hei

恒信金仁 发表于 2025-10-28 10:16
话说牙买加西南侧海水实力到底有多可怕，给一个C5这么龟速都不带弱的？简直装了加热机一样 ...

大約就是過百米深的26度+暖水層及N個曖渦

ygsj24

664
WTNT43 KNHC 280258
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Melissa this evening.  They found that the system
is maintaining category 5 intensity with the central pressure near
903 mb and peak 700 mb flight-level and tail Doppler radar winds
supporting 150 kt for the current intensity.  The hurricane
continues to exhibit a well-defined eye about 10 n mi in diameter
embedded within extremely cold cloud tops to near -90 deg C.
Upper-level outflow remains well defined over the system.  Although
such intense tropical cyclones typically undergo an eyewall
replacement, radar observations from Jamaica do not show this
occurring thus far.

After remaining nearly stationary over the past few hours, Melissa
now appears to be moving slowly north-northeastward with an initial
motion estimate of around 020/02 kt.  During the next few days, a
mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to deepen near the southeastern
U.S. coast.  This should result in Melissa moving
north-northeastward to northeastward with increasing forward speed
through the forecast period.  The official forecast is similar to
the previous one and also close the tightly-clustered consensus and
Google DeepMind guidance.  The only significant difference in the
track forecast compared to earlier today is a slower motion during
the first couple of days, which delays the expected arrival of the
core of Melissa over Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern or
Central Bahamas.

Some fluctuations in intensity could still occur during the short
period before Melissa reaches Jamaica.  The primary influence on
the hurricane's intensity during the next 36 hours will be the
interaction with land.  Some weakening is anticipated after the
system moves over Jamaica and eastern Cuba.  More substantial
weakening is likely after the system moves past Cuba and over the
southwestern Atlantic, where the vertical wind shear is likely to
increase significantly.  The official intensity forecast is close
to the latest LGEM guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Remain in your safe shelter. Catastrophic flash flooding
and numerous landslides are expected through Tuesday. The eyewall’s
destructive winds may cause total structural failure, particularly
in higher elevations, leading to widespread infrastructural damage,
prolonged power and communication outages, and isolated communities.
Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging
waves are anticipated through Tuesday. Failure to take immediate
action may result in serious injury or significant loss of life.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic:  Catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern
portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek.  In Haiti,
extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities is
likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected late Tuesday and
Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba:  Heavy rainfall with life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides is expected to begin shortly.
Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are expected late
Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Preparations should be rushed to
completion.

4. Southeast and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane
conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of the southeast and central Bahamas on
Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials
and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.
Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and a significant storm
surge is expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 16.6N  78.5W  150 KT 175 MPH
12H  28/1200Z 17.5N  78.3W  150 KT 175 MPH
24H  29/0000Z 18.8N  77.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  29/1200Z 20.7N  76.0W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H  30/0000Z 23.0N  74.3W   85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WATER
60H  30/1200Z 25.8N  72.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  31/0000Z 29.8N  68.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  01/0000Z 38.9N  56.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 47.5N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch