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JTWC/01W/#15/01-18 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (NOKAEN) WARNING NR
015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.6N 125.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 261 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 01W (NOKAEN) WITH A COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND INCREASINGLY
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALL ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISLOCATED NEARLY 200 NM TO THE NORTH OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15 KTS), MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND EXCESSIVE DRY AIR
IN THE MID-LEVELS ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEMS VORTEX. THE INITIAL
POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CIMSS
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED
DIRECTLY TO THE EAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.0 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 35 KTS AT 180640Z
CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 180640Z
CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 180640Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 25 KTS AT 180640Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 01W IS FORECASTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE (STR) LOCATED DIRECTLY TO
THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOLLOWING TAU 24, THE STR TO THE
EAST WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS AN ADDITIONAL BUILDING STR
CENTERED OVER VIETNAM BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES. BY
TAU 48, THE EASTWARD BUILDING STR WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE TS 01W
SOUTHWARD. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 96, THE WEAK VORTEX WILL BE
USHERED SOUTHWARD INTO TOTAL DISSIPATION BY THE STR POSITIONED TO
THE WEST. REGARDING INTENSITY, TS 01W IS FORECASTED TO MAINTAIN
STEADY SURFACE INTENSITIES BETWEEN 35 KTS AND 40 KTS INTO TAU 48
WITH A RELATIVELY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) BELOW 20 KTS. FOLLOWING TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE, WITH AMPLIFIED DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND
SUSTAINED VWS BETWEEN 20-30 KTS. SURFACE INTENSITIES ARE FORECASTED
TO WEAKEN BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 96, REACHING COMPLETE DISSIPATION
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DURING THIS SAME TERMINAL
WEAKENING PHASE, NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL
MAINTAIN SURFACE INTENSITIES GREATER THAN 25 KTS THROUGHOUT THE
SYSTEMS NORTHWEST QUADRANT, HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERLY SURGE WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE DISSIPATION INTO TAU
96 WITHIN THE SYSTEMS CORE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT DURING THE INITIAL 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, PRIOR
TO THE SYSTEMS FORECASTED TRACK SOUTHWARD BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU
96. WHILE THE STR CENTERED OVER VIETNAM BUILDS WESTWARD, NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) SOLUTIONS
CHARACTERIZE VARYING TRACK SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXPECTED RECURVE
SCENARIO. THROUGH THE INITIAL 36 HOURS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE JTWC CONSENSUS PACKAGE, LENDING MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. FOLLOWING TAU 36, THE RATE OF
DISSIPATION BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS HAS RESULTED IN A WIDE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD, EXCEEDING 600 NM BY TAU 96. THEREFORE, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
VARYING RATES OF TERMINAL WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND INFLUENCES FROM THE EXPECTED NORTHERLY
SURGE EVENT WITHIN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. REGARDING
INTENSITY, THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS PACKAGE REMAINS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TS 01W WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITIES
BETWEEN 35-40 KTS INTO TAU 48. FOLLOWING TAU 48, ALL JTWC INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MEMBERS ILLUSTRATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL DRY AIR FROM THE
NORTHERLY SURGE EVENT INTO THE SYSTEMS SHALLOW VORTEX WILL DICTATE
HOW LONG 25 KTS IS MAINTAINED. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY FORECAST
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 96 HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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楼主: 红豆棒冰冰
发表于 2026-1-18 12:30
发表于 2026-1-18 14:26
